<p><strong>吉姆·克莱默</strong> 对私人信贷危机直言不讳。</p>
<p>这位资深市场评论员和前对冲基金经理在周末通过 X.com 发布了一条信息，既是对任何接触到日益紧张的私人信贷市场的人的安慰，也是警告。</p>
<p>他的论点很简单：与 2008 年金融危机不同，当时基础的抵押资产基本上毫无价值且没有清晰的解决办法，今天的情况有出路——但仅限于那些愿意接受的人。</p>
<p>克莱默认为，关键的区别在于，大多数处于私人信贷投资组合中的公司都是基本健康的企业。它们是有偿债能力和运营能力的。这意味着实际上有一条出路——前提是投资者愿意在过程中接受一些损失。</p>
<p>“与 2007-2008 年的住房/抵押危机不同，私人信贷的情况有解决方案：接受损失，” 克莱默写道。“绝大多数公司都是有偿债能力的，所以卖掉它们，接受一些损失。不要死掉！”</p>
<p>这是一个典型的直接信息，来自一个从未被指责为粉饰事情的人。但在克莱默标志性的表达方式下，有一个值得考虑的观点：目前投资者面临的最大风险可能不是亏损——而是完全不作为。</p>
<h2>赎回增加，紧张情绪显现</h2>
<p>随着利率上升、流动性收紧以及更广泛的风险规避环境的结合，私人信贷市场在最近几周承受着越来越大的压力，这个领域在宽松货币时代迅速扩张。</p>
<p><strong>Oaktree Capital Management</strong> 决定完全满足所有赎回请求，代表其私人信贷基金第一季度的 8.5%。Oaktree 战略信贷基金（OSC）计划回购约 1390 万股，代表其流通股的 6.8%，路透社报道。</p>
<p>针对当前的收益环境，特征是利率较低和信贷利差收紧，该基金还决定将每月股息从每股 18 美分调整为 16 美分。该基金引用了维持流动性的必要性作为股息减少的原因，呼应了在一封提到经济学家 <strong>米尔顿·弗里德曼</strong> 的股东信中所表达的 “没有免费的午餐” 的观点。</p>
<p>与此同时，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> (NYSE: MS) 限制了赎回，因为投资者寻求从其北港私人收入基金中撤回近 11% 的股份，而 <strong>摩根大通</strong> (NYSE: JPM) 已开始限制其私人信贷基金对软件公司的贷款。<strong>贝莱德</strong> 公司 (NYSE: BLK) 限制了赎回 来自其 260 亿美元的 HPS 企业贷款基金，因为赎回请求激增至基金净资产价值的 9.3%。</p>
<p>与公共市场可以在几秒钟内退出头寸不同，私人信贷持有的资产更难出售，透明度较低，且通常流动性不足——这正是克莱默的建议既合理又难以付诸实践的原因。</p>
<h2>这是压力还是实力？</h2>
<p>私人信贷领域的领导者们对该行业是否真的处于困境进行了很多反复的评论，有些人表示私人信贷仍然保持强劲。</p>
<p><strong>富达投资</strong> 认为，尽管最近的头条新闻，私人信贷仍然是一个 “引人注目的资产类别”，该公司在其最新的私人市场 更新中 表示。</p>
<p><strong>汉密尔顿莱恩</strong> (NASDAQ: HLNE) 表示，它不认为私人信贷存在泡沫，在其 最新的 2026 年市场概述中。</p>
<p>“随着可用资本的增加，市场份额的增加，以及关于私人信贷压力的持续报道，普通观察者可能会认为私人信贷的收益和利差正在崩溃。这将是一个完全错误的假设，” 汉密尔顿莱恩写道。</p>
<p>这家私人市场投资管理公司指出，相对于广泛的联合贷款，关于利差或回报 “没有压力的迹象”。</p>
<p>“私人信贷并不处于泡沫之中。如果它不在黄金时代，它就在白银时代，” 汉密尔顿莱恩总结道。</p>
<p><em>照片：s_bukley 来自 Shutterstock</em></p>

HLNE

贝莱德

金融业 ETF - Vanguard

全球上市私募股权 ETF - ProShares

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<p>吉姆·克莱默警告私人信贷市场的投资者采取行动，而不是冒险遭受损失。他强调，与 2008 年金融危机不同，许多私人信贷投资组合中的公司是有偿债能力和运营的，为愿意接受一定损失的投资者提供了出路。私人信贷市场面临着利率上升和流动性紧缩的压力，导致像 Oaktree Capital 和 BlackRock 这样的基金增加了赎回请求。尽管存在担忧，一些公司，如 Fidelity 和 Hamilton Lane，仍然认为私人信贷仍然是一个强劲的资产类别</p>

<p><strong>Jim Cramer</strong> isn’t mincing words about the private credit mess.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>吉姆·克莱默</strong> 对私人信贷危机直言不讳。</p>
</div><p>The veteran market commentator and former hedge fund manager took to X.com over the weekend with a message that was equal parts reassurance and warning for anyone with exposure to the increasingly stressed private credit market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位资深市场评论员和前对冲基金经理在周末通过 X.com 发布了一条信息，既是对任何接触到日益紧张的私人信贷市场的人的安慰，也是警告。</p>
</div><p>His argument is straightforward: unlike the 2008 financial crisis, where the underlying mortgage assets were fundamentally worthless and there was no clean way out, today’s situation has an exit — but only for those willing to take it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的论点很简单：与 2008 年金融危机不同，当时基础的抵押资产基本上毫无价值且没有清晰的解决办法，今天的情况有出路——但仅限于那些愿意接受的人。</p>
</div><p>The key difference, Cramer contends, is that most of the companies sitting inside private credit portfolios are fundamentally healthy businesses. They’re solvent and operational. Which means there is actually a path out — provided investors are willing to accept some losses on the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克莱默认为，关键的区别在于，大多数处于私人信贷投资组合中的公司都是基本健康的企业。它们是有偿债能力和运营能力的。这意味着实际上有一条出路——前提是投资者愿意在过程中接受一些损失。</p>
</div><p>“Unlike the housing/mortgage crisis in 2007-8, there is a solution to the private credit situation: take the hit,” Cramer wrote. “The vast majority of companies are solvent, so sell them, take some losses. Don’t get Dead!”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“与 2007-2008 年的住房/抵押危机不同，私人信贷的情况有解决方案：接受损失，” 克莱默写道。“绝大多数公司都是有偿债能力的，所以卖掉它们，接受一些损失。不要死掉！”</p>
</div><p>It’s a characteristically direct message from someone who has never been accused of sugarcoating things. But beneath the signature Cramer delivery is a point worth considering: the greatest risk for investors right now may not be taking a loss — it’s doing nothing at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个典型的直接信息，来自一个从未被指责为粉饰事情的人。但在克莱默标志性的表达方式下，有一个值得考虑的观点：目前投资者面临的最大风险可能不是亏损——而是完全不作为。</p>
</div><h2>Redemptions Rise, Nerves Start Showing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>赎回增加，紧张情绪显现</h2>
</div><p>The private credit market has come under growing pressure in recent weeks as rising rates, tighter liquidity, and a broader risk-off environment have combined to squeeze a corner of finance that expanded rapidly during the easy money era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着利率上升、流动性收紧以及更广泛的风险规避环境的结合，私人信贷市场在最近几周承受着越来越大的压力，这个领域在宽松货币时代迅速扩张。</p>
</div><p><strong>Oaktree Capital Management</strong> elected to fully satisfy all redemption requests, representing 8.5% in its private credit fund for the first quarter. Oaktree Strategic Credit Fund (OSC) plans to repurchase approximately 13.9 million shares, representing 6.8% of its outstanding shares, Reuters reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Oaktree Capital Management</strong> 决定完全满足所有赎回请求，代表其私人信贷基金第一季度的 8.5%。Oaktree 战略信贷基金（OSC）计划回购约 1390 万股，代表其流通股的 6.8%，路透社报道。</p>
</div><p>In response to the current earnings environment, characterized by lower interest rates and tighter credit spreads, the fund also decided to adjust its monthly dividend from 18 cents to 16 cents per share. The fund cited the need to maintain liquidity as a reason for the dividend reduction, echoing the sentiment that &#34;there is no free lunch,&#34; as articulated in a shareholder letter referencing economist <strong>Milton Friedman.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>针对当前的收益环境，特征是利率较低和信贷利差收紧，该基金还决定将每月股息从每股 18 美分调整为 16 美分。该基金引用了维持流动性的必要性作为股息减少的原因，呼应了在一封提到经济学家 <strong>米尔顿·弗里德曼</strong> 的股东信中所表达的 “没有免费的午餐” 的观点。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> (NYSE: MS) curbed redemptions after investors sought to withdraw nearly 11% of shares from its North Haven Private Income Fund and <strong>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</strong> (NYSE: JPM) has begun restricting lending to software companies in its private credit funds. <strong>BlackRock</strong> Inc (NYSE: BLK) limited withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund after redemption requests surged to 9.3% of the fund’s net asset value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> (NYSE: MS) 限制了赎回，因为投资者寻求从其北港私人收入基金中撤回近 11% 的股份，而 <strong>摩根大通</strong> (NYSE: JPM) 已开始限制其私人信贷基金对软件公司的贷款。<strong>贝莱德</strong> 公司 (NYSE: BLK) 限制了赎回 来自其 260 亿美元的 HPS 企业贷款基金，因为赎回请求激增至基金净资产价值的 9.3%。</p>
</div><p>Unlike public markets where positions can be exited in seconds, private credit holdings are harder to sell, less transparent, and often illiquid — which is precisely what makes Cramer’s advice both sensible and difficult to act on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与公共市场可以在几秒钟内退出头寸不同，私人信贷持有的资产更难出售，透明度较低，且通常流动性不足——这正是克莱默的建议既合理又难以付诸实践的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Is This Stress Or Strength?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这是压力还是实力？</h2>
</div><p>There has been a lot of back and forth commentary from leaders in the private credit sector as to whether the sector is actually in trouble, with some stating that private credit is still holding strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷领域的领导者们对该行业是否真的处于困境进行了很多反复的评论，有些人表示私人信贷仍然保持强劲。</p>
</div><p><strong>Fidelity Investments</strong> believes the private credit remains a &#34;compelling asset class&#34; despite recent headlines, the company said in its most recent private markets update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>富达投资</strong> 认为，尽管最近的头条新闻，私人信贷仍然是一个 “引人注目的资产类别”，该公司在其最新的私人市场 更新中 表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Hamilton Lane</strong> (NASDAQ: HLNE) said it does not believe there is a private credit bubble in its most recent 2026 market overview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>汉密尔顿莱恩</strong> (NASDAQ: HLNE) 表示，它不认为私人信贷存在泡沫，在其 最新的 2026 年市场概述中。</p>
</div><p>&#34;With the increased capital available, with the increase in market share, with the ongoing press about the pressures on private credit, the casual observer would think that yields and spreads of private credit over broadly syndicated loans were collapsing. That would be a completely incorrect assumption,&#34; Hamilton Lane wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着可用资本的增加，市场份额的增加，以及关于私人信贷压力的持续报道，普通观察者可能会认为私人信贷的收益和利差正在崩溃。这将是一个完全错误的假设，” 汉密尔顿莱恩写道。</p>
</div><p>The private markets investment management firm noted that there are &#34;no signs of stress&#34; in regards to spread or returns, relative to broadly syndicated loans.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家私人市场投资管理公司指出，相对于广泛的联合贷款，关于利差或回报 “没有压力的迹象”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Private credit is not in a bubble. If it's not in its Golden Age, it is in its Silver Age,&#34; Hamilton Lane concluded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“私人信贷并不处于泡沫之中。如果它不在黄金时代，它就在白银时代，” 汉密尔顿莱恩总结道。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo: s_bukley from Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：s_bukley 来自 Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

克莱默对持有私人信贷的人有一个直率的建议：‘千万别让自己陷入困境！’