--- title: "\"Growth Panic\" Overwhelms \"Inflation Anxiety\": Fed Rate Cut Expectations Resurface, U.S. Treasuries Stage Dramatic Rebound" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281092492.md" description: "As traders abandon bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the market's focus shifts to concerns that the conflict in Iran may exacerbate economic slowdown. The U.S. Treasury market rebounded strongly, ending the most severe sell-off in 17 months. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is powerless against supply-side shocks, alleviating market concerns about interest rate hikes and prompting traders to begin factoring in the possibility of rate cuts. Short-term Treasury yields fell by more than 10 basis points at one point, reflecting worries about the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy" datetime: "2026-03-31T00:20:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281092492.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281092492.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281092492.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281092492.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281092492.md) # "Growth Panic" Overwhelms "Inflation Anxiety": Fed Rate Cut Expectations Resurface, U.S. Treasuries Stage Dramatic Rebound According to Zhitong Finance APP, as traders abandon bets on interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, market focus has shifted to concerns that escalating conflict in Iran may exacerbate economic slowdown, leading to a strong rebound in the U.S. Treasury market from its worst sell-off in 17 months. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated during a speech at Harvard University that the central bank is almost powerless against supply-side shocks (such as the surge in oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict). This statement alleviated market concerns about the Fed being forced to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation, prompting traders to begin factoring in the possibility of interest rate cuts later this year, although the probability remains low. The sudden shift in market sentiment pushed short-term Treasury yields down by more than 10 basis points at one point, although the decline later narrowed. This allowed the U.S. Treasury market to recover from its most severe monthly decline since October 2024, when investors bet that Trump's election would inject strong momentum into the economy. This rebound reflects growing market concerns that escalating conflict in the Middle East will impact an already slowing U.S. economy facing job growth challenges, with rising fuel prices pushing up costs for businesses and consumers. The increase on Monday marked the second consecutive day of falling yields alongside rising oil prices. In most of March, as energy prices soared, yields rose in tandem, with the market then worried that the Iran conflict could trigger inflation. John Briggs, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Crédit Agricole, stated, "Before last Friday, investors seemed more concerned about the inflation shock from rising oil prices, thus pricing in rate hikes by the Fed, which pushed Treasury yields higher. However, the market sentiment shifted afterward; despite rising oil prices, the focus turned to concerns about economic growth." ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774914070287766.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) This marks a significant shift in the bond market—previous concerns about inflation shocks potentially constraining the Fed have largely overshadowed worries about economic growth. Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at TD Securities, stated, "The market is uncertain about how to respond to recent geopolitical events—whether to focus on the first-order inflation shock or the second-order economic growth shock. Not only is the geopolitical outlook unclear, but the market also lacks clarity on how the Fed will respond to these scenarios." Earlier last week, the futures market had fully priced in one rate hike before the end of the year, and until last Friday, the market still believed the likelihood of a rate hike was very high. However, by Monday, market sentiment quickly reversed, with traders at one point believing the probability of a rate cut before the December meeting reached 20%. Macro strategist Alyce Andres stated, "Signs of escalating conflict in Iran and concerns about economic growth are driving U.S. Treasury gains on Monday, but other factors such as thin trading due to the month-end holiday and supply dynamics may also continue to support buying in the bond market this week." **Global Bond Market Correlation** The rebound in U.S. Treasuries has led to a simultaneous recovery in global bond markets, with yields on Japanese, British, and German government bonds all declining. The yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury fell by 9 basis points to 3.82%, while the yield on the ten-year Treasury dropped by about 9 basis points to 4.34% Including Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), major U.S. bond funds have previously warned that financial markets are underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown as inflation concerns rise. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next year to about 30%. The conflict, now in its fifth week, shows no signs of ending, despite the U.S. extending the deadline for Iran to restart operations in the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, a key crude oil benchmark remained above $110 per barrel. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774914089992505.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Although Trump previously stated on social media that the government is having "serious discussions" with the Iranian regime, he also threatened again that if an agreement is not reached, the U.S. will attack Iran's oil and electricity infrastructure. However, Iran has repeatedly stated that there has been no progress in negotiations and hinted at its ability to sustain a long-term conflict, increasing the risk of prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to global energy supplies. BMO Capital Markets' head of U.S. interest rate strategy, Ian Lyngen, summarized: "The Treasury market rebounded on Monday as investors shifted their focus to the potential global growth risks associated with Middle Eastern events, rather than trading this conflict solely from an inflation shock perspective." ### 相关股票 - [Schwab 5-10 Year Corp Bond ETF (SCHI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SCHI.US.md) - [iShares Trust iShares 1-5 Year Invest Grade Corp Bond ETF (IGSB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IGSB.US.md) - [iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd (TLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TLT.US.md) - [Vanguard Intermediate Term Bd (VCIT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VCIT.US.md) - [ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg (IAI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAI.US.md) - [SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BIL.US.md) - [Nasdaq (NDAQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [SPDR Intermed Term (SPIB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPIB.US.md) - [iShares Barclays Short Treasury (SHV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHV.US.md) - [Pmco Enh Shrt Maturity (MINT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MINT.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [iShares Core US Aggregate Bd (AGG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AGG.US.md) - [Fidelity MSCI Financials Index (FNCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/FNCL.US.md) - [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BND.US.md) - [VG Financial (VFH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VFH.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [iShares iBoxx Invt (LQD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/LQD.US.md) - [DoubleLine Asset-Backed Securities ETF (DABS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DABS.US.md) - [Vanguard Short Term Bd (VCSH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VCSH.US.md) - [iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGOV.US.md) - [iShares Government Money Market ETF (GMMF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GMMF.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [FED CHAIR POWELL Q&A/HARVARD: WE 'LL AWARE GRADUATES FACING VERY LOW JOB CREATION; BUT US ECONOMY 'INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC,' FLEXIBLE; VERY OPTIMISTIC](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281047289.md) - [ANALYSIS-Iran war volatility strains trading in world's biggest markets](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280951645.md) - [Global bonds set for steep monthly losses as Iran war stokes stagflation fears](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280964987.md) - [Trump To Sign Order To Pay TSA Agents](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280702362.md) - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280667304.md)