<p>阿尔蒙蒂在韩国尚东的钨矿，预计在 2026 年 3 月开采。</p>
<p>阿尔蒙蒂</p>
<p>北京——伊朗战争正在挤压一个已经受到中国出口管制和囤积努力压力的全球商品市场。</p>
<p>近期，钨、硫和氦这三种小众元素的价格急剧上涨。</p>
<p>尽管这些商品的交易量远不及石油，但价格飙升表明，中东冲突的连锁反应可能会限制推动人工智能进步的半导体生产。</p>
<p>钨是一种几乎与钻石一样坚硬的金属，负责半导体芯片核心的电连接。硫酸是硫的副产品，用于清洁芯片晶圆。氦气则能顺利生产半导体，因为这种气体可以防止制造过程中不必要的化学反应。</p>
<p>这三种元素在现代制造业中变得至关重要，包括国防领域。</p>
<p>在伊朗战争于 2 月 28 日爆发之前，北京就开始加强对关键供应的控制，部分原因是与美国的紧张关系在过去几年中加剧。</p>
<p>中国在一年多前开始限制钨的出口，并在 12 月呼吁对硫酸出口实施更严格的限制。根据 Wind Information 的数据，氦气的进口量在 2025 年增长了 15.7%，而 2024 年几乎增长了 65%。</p>
<p>伊朗战争及随之而来的霍尔木兹海峡的限制，这一中东重要的能源和化学品运输路线，已将一些过剩情况转变为短缺，同时加剧了现有的短缺。</p>
<p>这三种商品的价格在某些情况下上涨幅度超过了石油。广泛使用的化石燃料在 3 月份上涨超过 50%，使布伦特原油有望创下历史新高。</p>
<p>高盛分析师在上周末的一份报告中表示，尽管中国供应链被视为比许多同行更具韧性，但在特定领域的制造商原材料化学品中，干扰风险高于预期，报告中引用了近 40 次与商品相关的会议和在中国的实地考察。</p>
<h2>钨</h2>
<p>钨的价格在上周末创下超过 3000 美元的历史新高，标志着本月价格上涨超过 50%，自去年 12 月底以来价格已上涨超过三倍。这是基于钨矿商阿尔蒙蒂引用的行业基准 “钨酸铵（APT）” 的公吨单位（MTU）。</p>
<p>阿尔蒙蒂本月早些时候正式重新开放了位于韩国尚东的大型钨矿，并计划在美国蒙大拿州的一个项目中今年开始生产一些钨。</p>
<p>该公司首席执行官路易斯·布莱克告诉 CNBC，自去年初以来，国防部门对钨的需求 “极其强劲”，但尽管伊朗战争爆发，需求并没有显著变化。</p>
<p>“没有材料可以囤积。这可能是最大的变化，” 他说。</p>
<h2>硫</h2>
<p>高盛分析师表示，非洲的硫酸价格现在至少比战争前高出 30%，并且仍在上涨，引用了一位在非洲的当地中国矿商。</p>
<p>其他评估则指出价格上涨幅度较小。</p>
<p>根据 S&amp;P Global Platts 的数据，中国的硫价格（包括成本和运费）从 3 月初上涨了约 13%，截至 3 月 26 日达到了每吨 621 美元。</p>
<p>“如果有效封锁持续 2-3 个月，可能会造成严重的供应冲击，尤其是在运费/保险保持高位且中东来源的货物变得更难执行的情况下，” S&amp;P Global Energy 的硫和磷酸盐原材料首席分析师潘宇雅和高级首席分析师赵以撒在 3 月 20 日的报告中表示。</p>
<p>S&amp;P 分析师表示，2025 年中国约 56% 的硫进口来自中东。</p>
<p>“即使在中东冲突之前，硫的价格也因市场紧缩而急剧上涨。随着硫的价格现在达到新的历史高点，这种相对冷门商品的 ‘超级挤压’ 值得进一步研究，” 汇丰分析师在 3 月 16 日的报告中表示。</p>
<h2>氦</h2>
<p>根据 Fitch Ratings 的数据，自伊朗战争开始以来，氦的价格大约翻了一番。</p>
<p>由于大多数交易通过工业气体供应商与制造商之间的长期私人合同进行，因此很难确定行业整体价格，Fitch 亚太区企业评级总监谢丽·张表示。</p>
<p>本月伊朗的导弹袭击摧毁了卡塔尔的一个关键工业中心，该中心生产全球约三分之一的氦。</p>
<p>这意味着氦的供应不会很快恢复，Hallgarten &amp; Company 的首席矿业策略师克里斯托弗·埃克尔斯顿指出。</p>
<p>在进一步市场紧张的一个迹象中，中国河南省的氦价格已从 2 月 28 日的 545 元（78.85 美元）每瓶反弹至 600 元（86.81 美元），根据 Wind Information 的数据。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/styles/skin/special-reports/the-china-connection/tcc_widget_logo_2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/styles/skin/special-reports/the-china-connection/tcc_widget_logo_2026.png"/></p>
<p>每周分析和来自亚洲最大经济体的见解，送入您的邮箱</p>
<p>立即订阅</p>
<p>伊朗战争造成的短缺是最新的供应链中断，冲击了全球市场，市场此前也曾遭遇 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和新冠疫情的类似冲击。这促使公司多元化，并使中国等国家加大了囤积计划。</p>
<p>“与北京的谈判中，某些物理材料的供应获取将成为更频繁的话题，这些材料的生产和加工集中在中国，” Rhodium Group 在 3 月 24 日的报告中表示。</p>
<p>有限的价格透明度也意味着短缺可能比可用数据所示的更严重。</p>
<p>埃克尔斯顿表示，钨和氦的价格正在飙升，&#34;但你没有听到买方说，‘天哪，我们的产品不够了，’&#34;他说，&#34;国防承包商应该有钨的仓库，但他们没有。&#34;</p>
<p>&#34;世界变得懒惰了。它认为生活就像超市，产品是一包玉米片或几吨硫酸，&#34;他说，&#34;商品的超市已经有几个过道被砍掉了。&#34;</p>
<p>在谷歌上选择 CNBC 作为你的首选来源，永远不会错过来自商业新闻最可信赖名称的任何时刻。</p>

中国龙 ETF - Roundhill

中国 MSCI ETF - iShares

纳斯达克中国金龙指数

<p>在伊朗战争之后，由于中国的出口管制和囤积努力，钨、硫和氦的价格飙升。钨的价格创下超过 3000 美元的历史新高，而硫在非洲的价格至少上涨了 30%。自冲突开始以来，氦的价格大约翻了一番，卡塔尔一个关键工业中心的导弹袭击加剧了这一情况。分析师警告说，供应链的中断可能会严重影响半导体生产，突显了这些商品在现代制造和国防领域中的关键作用</p>

<p>Almonty's tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, in March 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿尔蒙蒂在韩国尚东的钨矿，预计在 2026 年 3 月开采。</p>
</div><p>Almonty</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿尔蒙蒂</p>
</div><p>BEIJING — The Iran war is squeezing a global commodities market already pressured by China's export controls and stockpiling efforts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京——伊朗战争正在挤压一个已经受到中国出口管制和囤积努力压力的全球商品市场。</p>
</div><p>Prices of three niche elements — tungsten, sulfur and helium — have climbed sharply in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期，钨、硫和氦这三种小众元素的价格急剧上涨。</p>
</div><p>While none of the commodities are traded as widely as oil, the surge indicates how ripple effects from the Middle East conflict could end up restricting production of the semiconductors that power artificial intelligence advances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些商品的交易量远不及石油，但价格飙升表明，中东冲突的连锁反应可能会限制推动人工智能进步的半导体生产。</p>
</div><p>Tungsten, a metal nearly as hard as a diamond, creates the electrical connection in the core of a semiconductor chip. Sulfuric acid, a byproduct of sulfur, cleans chip wafers. Helium enables smooth production of semiconductors since the gas prevents unwanted chemical reactions in the manufacturing process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>钨是一种几乎与钻石一样坚硬的金属，负责半导体芯片核心的电连接。硫酸是硫的副产品，用于清洁芯片晶圆。氦气则能顺利生产半导体，因为这种气体可以防止制造过程中不必要的化学反应。</p>
</div><p>Those are just some of the ways in which the three elements have become critical for modern manufacturing, including for defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三种元素在现代制造业中变得至关重要，包括国防领域。</p>
</div><p>Beijing started to ramp up its control over the critical supplies even before the Iran war started on Feb. 28, partly as tensions with the U.S. escalated over the last few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗战争于 2 月 28 日爆发之前，北京就开始加强对关键供应的控制，部分原因是与美国的紧张关系在过去几年中加剧。</p>
</div><p>China started restricting tungsten exports just over a year ago, and in December called for tighter limits on sulfuric acid exports. Helium, a gas that's difficult to store, saw the volume of Chinese imports rise by 15.7% in 2025, after a nearly 65% surge in 2024, according to Wind Information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国在一年多前开始限制钨的出口，并在 12 月呼吁对硫酸出口实施更严格的限制。根据 Wind Information 的数据，氦气的进口量在 2025 年增长了 15.7%，而 2024 年几乎增长了 65%。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war and the ensuing constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East shipping route for energy and chemicals, has tipped some oversupply situations into undersupply, while exacerbating existing shortages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争及随之而来的霍尔木兹海峡的限制，这一中东重要的能源和化学品运输路线，已将一些过剩情况转变为短缺，同时加剧了现有的短缺。</p>
</div><p>Prices of the three commodities have jumped in some cases by more than oil. The widely used fossil fuel has climbed by more than 50% in March, putting Brent on track for a record month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三种商品的价格在某些情况下上涨幅度超过了石油。广泛使用的化石燃料在 3 月份上涨超过 50%，使布伦特原油有望创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While the Chinese supply chain is being viewed as more resilient than many peers, the risk of disruption in chemicals as raw materials for manufacturers in selected segments is higher than expected based on the feedback,&#34; Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report late last week, citing nearly 40 commodity-related meetings and site visits in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛分析师在上周末的一份报告中表示，尽管中国供应链被视为比许多同行更具韧性，但在特定领域的制造商原材料化学品中，干扰风险高于预期，报告中引用了近 40 次与商品相关的会议和在中国的实地考察。</p>
</div><h2>Tungsten</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>钨</h2>
</div><p>Tungsten hit a record high of over $3,000 late last week, marking a surge of well over 50% for the month and more than tripling in price since late December. That's based on the industry benchmark called &#34;ammonium para tungstate (APT)&#34; in metric ton units, or MTU, from Fastmarket, as quoted by tungsten miner Almonty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>钨的价格在上周末创下超过 3000 美元的历史新高，标志着本月价格上涨超过 50%，自去年 12 月底以来价格已上涨超过三倍。这是基于钨矿商阿尔蒙蒂引用的行业基准 “钨酸铵（APT）” 的公吨单位（MTU）。</p>
</div><p>Almonty officially reopened a large tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, earlier this month, and plans to start producing some tungsten this year at a project in the U.S. state of Montana.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿尔蒙蒂本月早些时候正式重新开放了位于韩国尚东的大型钨矿，并计划在美国蒙大拿州的一个项目中今年开始生产一些钨。</p>
</div><p>The company's CEO Lewis Black told CNBC that defense sector demand for tungsten has been &#34;extremely strong&#34; since the beginning of last year, but that there's been no notable change despite the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司首席执行官路易斯·布莱克告诉 CNBC，自去年初以来，国防部门对钨的需求 “极其强劲”，但尽管伊朗战争爆发，需求并没有显著变化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's no material to stockpile. That's probably the biggest change,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“没有材料可以囤积。这可能是最大的变化，” 他说。</p>
</div><h2>Sulfur</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>硫</h2>
</div><p>The price of sulfuric acid in Africa is now at least 30% higher than it was prior to the war, and is still rising, the Goldman Sachs analysts said, citing a local Chinese miner in Africa.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛分析师表示，非洲的硫酸价格现在至少比战争前高出 30%，并且仍在上涨，引用了一位在非洲的当地中国矿商。</p>
</div><p>Other assessments point to a milder rise in prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他评估则指出价格上涨幅度较小。</p>
</div><p>China sulfur prices, including cost and freight, climbed by about 13% from early March to $621 per tonne as of March 26, according to S&amp;P Global Platts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 S&amp;P Global Platts 的数据，中国的硫价格（包括成本和运费）从 3 月初上涨了约 13%，截至 3 月 26 日达到了每吨 621 美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A 2-3 month effective blockade would likely become a severe supply shock, especially as freight/insurance stay elevated and Middle East-origin cargoes become harder to execute,&#34; Pan Yuya, lead analyst for sulfur and phosphate raw materials at S&amp;P Global Energy, and Isaac Zhao, senior principal analyst, China fertilizers at S&amp;P Global Energy, said in a March 20 note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果有效封锁持续 2-3 个月，可能会造成严重的供应冲击，尤其是在运费/保险保持高位且中东来源的货物变得更难执行的情况下，” S&amp;P Global Energy 的硫和磷酸盐原材料首席分析师潘宇雅和高级首席分析师赵以撒在 3 月 20 日的报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P analysts said that around 56% of China's sulfur imports came from the Middle East in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P 分析师表示，2025 年中国约 56% 的硫进口来自中东。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Even prior to the Middle East conflict, sulfur prices were rising sharply as the market tightened. With sulfur prices now at fresh record highs, the 'super squeeze' in this rather obscure commodity in supply warrants further examination,&#34; HSBC analysts said in a March 16 report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“即使在中东冲突之前，硫的价格也因市场紧缩而急剧上涨。随着硫的价格现在达到新的历史高点，这种相对冷门商品的 ‘超级挤压’ 值得进一步研究，” 汇丰分析师在 3 月 16 日的报告中表示。</p>
</div><h2>Helium</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>氦</h2>
</div><p>Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, according to Fitch Ratings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Fitch Ratings 的数据，自伊朗战争开始以来，氦的价格大约翻了一番。</p>
</div><p>As most trading occurs through long-term private contracts between industrial gas suppliers and manufacturers, it is difficult to pinpoint industry-wide prices, said Shelley Jang, Fitch's director of Asia-Pacific corporate ratings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于大多数交易通过工业气体供应商与制造商之间的长期私人合同进行，因此很难确定行业整体价格，Fitch 亚太区企业评级总监谢丽·张表示。</p>
</div><p>Iranian missile attacks this month crippled a key industrial center in Qatar, which produces about one-third of the world's helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月伊朗的导弹袭击摧毁了卡塔尔的一个关键工业中心，该中心生产全球约三分之一的氦。</p>
</div><p>That implies helium supply won't be restored anytime soon, pointed out Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten &amp; Company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着氦的供应不会很快恢复，Hallgarten &amp; Company 的首席矿业策略师克里斯托弗·埃克尔斯顿指出。</p>
</div><p>In one indication of further market tightness, prices of helium in China's Henan province have reversed a downturn this year to climb from a Feb. 28 low of 545 yuan ($78.85) a bottle to 600 yuan ($86.81), according to Wind Information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在进一步市场紧张的一个迹象中，中国河南省的氦价格已从 2 月 28 日的 545 元（78.85 美元）每瓶反弹至 600 元（86.81 美元），根据 Wind Information 的数据。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/styles/skin/special-reports/the-china-connection/tcc_widget_logo_2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/styles/skin/special-reports/the-china-connection/tcc_widget_logo_2026.png"/></p>
<p>Weekly analysis and insights from Asia's largest economy in your inbox</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每周分析和来自亚洲最大经济体的见解，送入您的邮箱</p>
</div><p>Subscribe now</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>立即订阅</p>
</div><p>Shortages caused by the Iran war are the latest supply chain disruption to rock global markets, which faced similar shocks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Covid-19 pandemic. That's pushed companies to diversify, and countries such as China to ramp up stockpiling plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争造成的短缺是最新的供应链中断，冲击了全球市场，市场此前也曾遭遇 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和新冠疫情的类似冲击。这促使公司多元化，并使中国等国家加大了囤积计划。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Access to supplies of certain physical materials where production and processing is concentrated in China will become more frequent topics of negotiations with Beijing,&#34; Rhodium Group said in a March 24 report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“与北京的谈判中，某些物理材料的供应获取将成为更频繁的话题，这些材料的生产和加工集中在中国，” Rhodium Group 在 3 月 24 日的报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Limited price transparency also means the shortage could be worse than available numbers suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有限的价格透明度也意味着短缺可能比可用数据所示的更严重。</p>
</div><p>Tungsten and helium prices have been surging, &#34;but you don't have anyone on the buy side saying, 'oh my goodness, we don't have enough product,'&#34; Ecclestone said. &#34;Defense contractors should have warehouses of tungsten, but they don't.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃克尔斯顿表示，钨和氦的价格正在飙升，&#34;但你没有听到买方说，‘天哪，我们的产品不够了，’&#34;他说，&#34;国防承包商应该有钨的仓库，但他们没有。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;The world has got lazy. It thinks life is like a supermarket, the product is a pack of cornflakes or a few tons of sulfuric acid,&#34; he said. &#34;The supermarket of commodities has had a few of the aisles chopped down.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;世界变得懒惰了。它认为生活就像超市，产品是一包玉米片或几吨硫酸，&#34;他说，&#34;商品的超市已经有几个过道被砍掉了。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在谷歌上选择 CNBC 作为你的首选来源，永远不会错过来自商业新闻最可信赖名称的任何时刻。</p>
</div>

三种小众商品的价格正在飙升。它们揭示了中国对供应链的掌控力