--- title: "Markets price three ECB rate hikes in 2026 as Iran de-escalation hopes fade" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281483048.md" description: "Euro zone benchmark Bund yields ended a three-day decline as traders increased expectations for ECB interest rate hikes amid fading hopes for Middle East de-escalation. Money markets now anticipate a year-end ECB deposit rate of 2.75%, up from 2.68%. German 10-year bond yields rose to 3.03%, while Italy's 10-year yields increased to 3.93%. Oil prices have surged, raising inflation concerns and influencing rate hike expectations. U.S. President Trump announced more aggressive actions against Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape." datetime: "2026-04-02T07:12:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281483048.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281483048.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281483048.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281483048.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281483048.md) # Markets price three ECB rate hikes in 2026 as Iran de-escalation hopes fade April 2 (Reuters) - Euro zone benchmark Bund yields snapped a three-day decline on Thursday and traders raised bets for central bank interest rate hikes as hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict faded. Money markets priced in an ECB deposit facility rate of 2.75% at year-end, from 2.68% late Wednesday. The rate is currently 2%. German borrowing costs were still on track for their first weekly drop since the beginning of the war as investors scaled back their bets for future European Central Bank rate hikes on expectations for a quick end to the conflict earlier this week. Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose 3 basis points (bps) to 3.03% and was set for a 7-bp weekly drop. It reached 3.13% last Friday, its highest level since June 2011. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran in a Wednesday evening prime-time speech. Meanwhile, Tehran will press on with the Middle East war until the United States and Israel face "permanent regret and surrender", a spokesperson for its armed forces' unified command said. Oil prices have jumped since early March, fuelling inflation fears and expectations for rate hikes at the ECB and elsewhere. Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to expectations for policy rates, were up 4.5 bps at 2.65%. They were on track for a 2-bp weekly decline. Italy's 10-year government bond yields rose 8 bps to 3.93%, after reaching 4.142% last Friday, the highest since July 2024. The yield gap between Italian government bonds and Bunds stood at 89 bps. It was at 63 bps before the start of the war, and had dipped to 53.50 in mid-January, its lowest level since August 2008. The French spread over Bunds was at 71 bps from 58 bps before the conflict. (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Kevin Buckland) ### 相关股票 - [SPDR O&G Ex & Prd (XOP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XOP.US.md) - [Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UCO.US.md) - [VG Energy (VDE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VDE.US.md) - [HSPC (603353.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/603353.CN.md) - [SPDR Energy Select (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [BP p.l.c. (BP.UK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BP.UK.md) - [iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs (IEZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [Us Brent Oil (BNO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md) - [United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb Engy (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md) - [iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod (IEO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEO.US.md) - [Global X DAX Germany ETF (DAX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DAX.US.md) - [SPDR O&G Equip (XES.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XES.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [UK borrowing costs rise as Trump threatens further strikes on Iran](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281482441.md) - [Europe risks recession if oil jumps over $150, ECB's Stournaras says](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281338363.md) - [TRADING DAY-Oil Strait back up again](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281575673.md) - [Trump speech unleashes more pain on US consumers with $5 gasoline, record diesel in sight](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281550771.md) - [South Korea expects to boost U.S. oil imports as Middle East war disrupts supply, Yonhap says](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281459036.md)