--- title: "第四季度的低迷预期和监管变化对保险巨头施加了压力" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281651770.md" description: "保险股，包括 LIC 和 HDFC Life，在 BSE 上下跌了最多 4%，创下 52 周新低，原因是对 2026 财年第四季度的预期疲软、地缘政治紧张局势以及监管变化。分析师预测，由于消费者信心低迷，年度保费等值增长将出现下降。监管变化，包括潜在的佣金上限，可能会扰乱业务增长，尽管 SBI Life 预计受到的影响较小。Irdai 提出的会计标准旨在提高透明度。尽管面临挑战，但由于市场渗透率不足和产品可负担性改善，长期增长仍然被看好" datetime: "2026-04-03T05:45:44.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281651770.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281651770.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281651770.md) --- # 第四季度的低迷预期和监管变化对保险巨头施加了压力 Led by listed life insurance majors, stocks of insurers were under pressure, falling up to 4 per cent on the BSE in Thursday’s intraday deals. Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India, HDFC Life Insurance, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company, and ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company hit their respective 52-week lows. In the past one month, these stocks have declined in the range of 14-24 per cent. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was down 10.5 per cent. The decline in the stocks was on account of expectations of a muted fourth quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q4FY26), uncertainty due to the Iran war, and regulatory changes. In the near term, Q4FY26 performance is among key triggers for the sector. Krupal Maniar and Komal Sharma of Antique Stock Broking believe that muted consumer sentiments during a seasonally strong March 2026, due to the ongoing West Asia conflict, are likely to weigh on Q4FY26 annual premium equivalent (APE) growth and profitability. The March quarter is a critical period as it usually accounts for 45 per cent of quarter premiums. While yield curve movements and product mix shift would aid value of new business (VNB) margins, weak growth may have negative impact due to operating leverage, besides goods and services tax (GST) input tax credit disallowance, says the brokerage. Iran-related geopolitical tensions, according to analysts at Geojit Investments, have triggered significant notional losses in LIC’s investment portfolio, weighing on its stock price. A recovery is expected as the situation stabilises and portfolio valuations rebound. The ongoing digital transformation and product innovation positions LIC for sustainable long-term growth, says the brokerage, which has a “Buy” rating on the insurer. Regulatory changes are also expected to be an overhang on the sector, though the impact will vary across insurance companies. While the potential implementation of commission caps may disrupt bancassurance economics, posing near-term risks to new business growth and distribution expansion, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) expects its impact on SBI Life to be low. This is because its commission ratio (4.8 per cent in the first nine months of FY26) is significantly better than the industry average. However, a drastic reduction in commission may lead to renegotiations with the bank. Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) is considering proposing changes to the commission structure, with possible amendments such as staggered commission, and commission caps for particular channels, among others. This may create a temporary hiccup, prompting the need for commission renegotiations and product refilling. However, in the long run, the industry is likely to bounce back, considering the under-penetrated market, low awareness, and improved affordability of products across segments, points out Motilal Oswal Research. In its recent consultation paper, Irdai has proposed to implement Indian Accounting Standards (Ind AS) for all insurers with effect from April 1, 2026, promoting better transparency, comparability, and alignment with globally accepted standards. However, parallel implementation for a few years may be suggested by the industry for a smooth transition. Key differences in International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) accounting include contractual service margin, which is the key profitability metric, deferred acquisition costs, and par income, which would be recognised over time (currently, 10 per cent is recognised as income). Meanwhile, in February 2026, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) issued draft guidelines for marketing and sales of financial services by banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), and other regulated entities — the focus has been on third-party products, including insurance. The objective seems to be to ensure the appropriateness of products sold; and reduce the risk of misselling, forced selling, and/or involuntary bundling. Seeking explicit approvals, incentive alignment, and strong feedback mechanism are some of the steps for the same. Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities say that they do not find any major adverse impact of these guidelines on insurance companies. The most positive reading is that these guidelines may end any residual concern/speculation on adverse bancassurance norms. Meanwhile, life and health companies remain enthused about post-GST momentum (in term and health), which still seems to sustain. Life companies are pivoting toward non-par (that aids margins); base effects, MDRT (million-dollar round table) drives (in December) and year end momentum will drive near-term APE. Non-life companies see improved conversion and better renewals in retail health, but remain concerned about competition in motor and group health, and are assertive on health claims, having better engagement with hospitals and with steady hikes. Hot topics that dominated the discussion across insurance companies were the likely distribution reforms, IFRS, solvency/RBS (risk-based solvency), and underlying profitability, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities say. ### 相关股票 - [7326.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/7326.JP.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [配资平台安全风险不容忽视](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286661216.md) - [保险中介股权难脱手，互联网大厂 “买齐”，谁还能接盘？](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286918636.md) - [一线调研｜从实验室到生产线，中试保险护航硬科技越过 “死亡之谷”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287235548.md) - [有区域 “7+4” 机构代扣被停，监管斩断助贷 “幽灵扣款” 通道](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287201477.md) - [寄希望于外脑？中华保险集团社招副总，两大子公司 “齐头并退”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286792958.md)