--- title: "摩根大通计算世界达到原油运营最低水平还需要多长时间" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281656835.md" description: "摩根大通的商品分析师 Natasha Kaneva 强调，由于伊朗战争，能源危机迫在眉睫，预计全球石油和液化天然气市场将出现延迟的供应冲击。随着货物顺利抵达目的地而未来交付却未能实现，报告分析了全球能源储备在耗尽之前能够维持多久。这种情况与 COVID 期间的连续性中断相似，影响因地区而异，取决于运输时间和库存水平" datetime: "2026-04-03T18:37:24.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281656835.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281656835.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281656835.md) --- # 摩根大通计算世界达到原油运营最低水平还需要多长时间 One week ago, we first presented our subscribers with a striking map created by JPMorgan's commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva, which showed the delayed physical commodity shockwave emerging from the Iran war that would slowly - or very fast for some demand-destroying Asian countries - spread around the globe as oil/LNG carrying ships that departed the gulf weeks ago reach their destinations, with no future deliveries in tow. As Kaneva explained it, "much like during COVID, the shock unfolds sequentially rather than simultaneously—**a rolling supply disruption moving westward, dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories."** Fast forward one week, when overnight JPM's commodity expert published the next_must-read_ report in the unfolding energy crisis series (_available to pro subs)_, this one looking at the obvious next step: **once new supplies end, how long will global energy reserves and buffers last before they are drained.** ### 相关股票 - [561760.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/561760.CN.md) - [03097.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/03097.HK.md) - [UNG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UNG.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BP.UK.md) - [563150.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/563150.CN.md) - [LNGZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/LNGZ.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XOP.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XES.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md) - [513350.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/513350.CN.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VDE.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [159588.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/159588.CN.md) - [159697.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/159697.CN.md) - [JPX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPX.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SCO.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md) - [501018.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/501018.CN.md) - [03175.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/03175.HK.md) - [603353.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/603353.CN.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UCO.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEO.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [伊拉克 4 月原油出口环比下降近 47%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286856360.md) - [三艘超级油轮突破封锁，成功穿越霍尔木兹海峡](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287110520.md) - [摩根大通减持福耀玻璃约 61.87 万股 每股作价约 61.21 港元](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286909826.md) - [全球原油供应进一步收缩，俄罗斯原油产量降至 10 个月低点](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286333594.md) - [中信建投：全球石油库存锐减 天然气高价行情或持续](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287034033.md)