---
title: "Guotai Haitong: Beware of US dollar credit downgrade and energy shocks, but technological advancements leave room for a soft landing"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281734329.md"
description: "Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the decoupling of the dollar from gold in the 1970s led to a downgrade of global fiat currency credit and was impacted by the energy crisis, resulting in increased asset price volatility. Currently, the reshaping of the global order poses new challenges to dollar credit, with intensified energy shocks. Compared to the 1970s, technological advancements and the AI revolution provide room for a soft landing, and the Federal Reserve does not need to rely entirely on shock therapy. If dollar credit continues to deteriorate, lessons from the 1970s should be considered"
datetime: "2026-04-06T05:55:58.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281734329.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281734329.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281734329.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281734329.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281734329.md)


# Guotai Haitong: Beware of US dollar credit downgrade and energy shocks, but technological advancements leave room for a soft landing

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that in the 1970s, the decoupling of the dollar from gold led to a downgrade of global trust in the paper currency system, which was further impacted by the energy crisis, resulting in significant volatility in major asset prices. Currently, the reshaping of the global order is challenging the dollar's credit, which has benefited from globalization, and the recent global energy shocks are also intensifying.

The current similarity between the U.S. and the 1970s lies in the "downgrade of paper currency credit" combined with energy shocks: the proportion of dollar reserves is declining, conflicts in the Middle East are pushing oil prices higher, and coupled with excessive money supply and fiscal expansion, there is a risk of inflation becoming unanchored. However, the key difference is that the AI revolution is enhancing total factor productivity, shale oil has turned the U.S. into an exporter, and the coverage of unions and wage indexation clauses has weakened, making the rigidity of the "wage-price spiral" far lower than in those years. The lesson from Volcker is that policies need to show determination to rebuild credibility, but current technological advancements create space for a soft landing, and the Federal Reserve does not need to replicate shock therapy; if dollar credit continues to deteriorate and inflation becomes unanchored, some experiences from the 1970s are worth referencing.

**Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows:**

In the 1970s, the decoupling of the dollar from gold led to a downgrade of global trust in the paper currency system, which was further impacted by the energy crisis, resulting in significant volatility in major asset prices. Currently, the reshaping of the global order is challenging the dollar's credit, which has benefited from globalization, and the recent global energy shocks are also intensifying. We need to draw lessons from the history of the 1970s.

**Linking to Gold: The Establishment and Crisis of Dollar Hegemony.** The Bretton Woods system established the dollar's position as the dominant international currency through the principle of "double linkage," but faced the "Triffin dilemma." After World War II, as Western Europe and Japan's economies recovered, U.S. gold reserves continued to flow out. In the mid-1960s, the Vietnam War and the "Great Society" program led to rising U.S. fiscal deficits and excessive money supply, ultimately making the Bretton Woods system unsustainable. In terms of asset performance, from 1945 to the mid-1960s, dollar assets were strong, bonds stable, and exchange rates firm; in the late 1960s, inflation heated up, the Federal Reserve tightened, real yields on U.S. bonds turned negative, U.S. stocks fluctuated and weakened, and the pressure on the dollar to depreciate intensified.

**Tying to Oil: The Reshaping of Dollar Hegemony and Stagflation.** After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. reestablished dollar hegemony by binding the dollar to oil transactions through "petrodollar" agreements with countries like Saudi Arabia. Oil-producing countries obtained dollar surpluses by selling oil, which flowed back to purchase U.S. assets, providing low-cost financing for the U.S. However, the two oil crises of the 1970s triggered skyrocketing oil prices, compounded by prior excessive money supply, leading the U.S. into severe stagflation. In terms of asset performance, gold surged significantly after breaking free from official price constraints, while prices of oil, agricultural products, and other commodities generally rose. The bond market entered a bear market, with the yield curve inverting multiple times; U.S. stocks overall were weak, experiencing a prolonged valuation decline, with only the energy and materials sectors relatively resilient.

**Volcker's Fight Against Inflation: Defending a Strong Dollar.** In the face of runaway inflation, Volcker implemented aggressive tightening policies after taking the helm of the Federal Reserve in 1979, strictly controlling money supply and raising interest rates to historic highs, even at the cost of a short-term recession, to break inflation expectations and rebuild the credibility of the Federal Reserve and the strength of the dollar. In terms of asset performance, in the early stages of tightening, the bond market plummeted, and the yield curve inverted; The US dollar has strengthened due to high interest rates attracting capital. The stock market initially suppressed and then rebounded: high interest rates suppress valuations and earnings, putting pressure on the market; after inflation recedes and interest rates decline, earnings recovery and valuation expansion resonate, leading to a long bull market in US stocks. Commodities and gold have significantly retreated due to rising holding costs and a stronger dollar. Ultimately, the bond market has entered a decades-long bull market, solidifying the strong dollar's position.

**Current US Stagflation Expectations: Similarities and Differences with the 1970s.** The current similarities between the US and the 1970s lie in the "degradation of paper currency credit" combined with energy shocks: the proportion of dollar reserves is declining, conflicts in the Middle East are pushing up oil prices, and coupled with excessive money supply and fiscal expansion, there is a risk of inflation decoupling. However, the key difference is that the AI revolution is enhancing total factor productivity, shale oil has turned the US into an exporter, and the coverage of unions and wage indexation clauses has weakened, making the rigidity of the "wage-price spiral" far lower than in those years. The lesson from Volcker is that policies need to demonstrate determination to rebuild credibility, but current technological advancements create space for a soft landing, and the Federal Reserve does not need to replicate shock therapy; if the dollar's credit continues to deteriorate and inflation decouples, some experiences from the 1970s are worth referencing.

**Risk Warning:** Escalation of geopolitical conflicts, increased global stagflation risks, and monetary policy tightening beyond expectations

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