<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>ASX 大型股的涨幅远超整体市场，造成前所未有的估值差距，并引发了关于高端市场是否被高估的质疑。</li>
<li>尽管估值偏高，券商仍然在少数 ASX 20 股票中看到选择性的上涨潜力，筛选出强烈买入评级和至少 10% 的上涨潜力。</li>
<li>Goodman Group (GMG)、QBE Insurance (QBE) 和 Sigma Healthcare (SIG) 被视为共识买入的优质选择，受益于涵盖人工智能基础设施、保险韧性和药房扩张的结构性增长主题。</li>
</ul>
<p>在中东持续冲突的阴影下，ASX 的一个有趣趋势是澳大利亚大型股与市场其他部分之间的极端脱节。</p>
<p>尽管二月份的财报季波动较大，ASX 仍上涨了 3%，但这一涨幅完全是由高端市场推动的。</p>
<p>正如 Auscap 的 Will Mumford 在最近的采访中告诉我的那样，&#34;二月份 ASX 20 上涨了约 7.5%，而 ASX 的其他部分则下跌了。&#34;</p>
<p>这种戏剧性的市场脱节导致 ASX 最大股票与 ASX 200 其他股票之间的市盈率差距达到了前所未有的水平。</p>
<p>（来源：FactSet，Auscap）</p>
<p>Auscap 的 Tim Carleton 表示，这使得 ASX 200 除 ASX 20 外的其他部分成为价值投资者的肥沃猎场。</p>
<p>这为我们认为非常高质量且将随着时间推移实现强劲盈利增长的公司提供了许多机会。</p>
<p>但在高端市场是否还有剩余价值呢？</p>
<p>为了找出答案，我们对 ASX 20 进行了筛选，过滤条件如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>被 Market Index 的券商共识工具评为强烈买入</li>
<li>至少有 10% 的上涨潜力</li>
</ul>
<p>不出所料，ASX 20 中大多数股票被券商给予了卖出或持有评级。</p>
<p>但有三只 ASX 股票被券商认为仍然提供良好的上涨潜力，并且是强烈共识买入。</p>
<p>Goodman Group</p>
<ul>
<li>券商评级：
<ul>
<li>7 买入，1 持有，0 卖出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共识潜力：
<ul>
<li>31.92%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>工业和基础设施房地产开发商 Goodman Group 坚定地与人工智能发展相结合，目前正在从工业专业公司转型为数据中心开发商。</p>
<p>尽管其最近的业绩超出预期，但由于缺乏关于数据中心租赁的更新和不确定的盈利增长，可能导致其表现不佳。</p>
<p>Goodman Group 1 年图表（来源：Market Index）</p>
<p>摩根士丹利对 GMG 维持增持评级，并认为市场低估了公司即将产生的盈利事件，特别是在确保其欧洲数据中心开发的客户合同方面。</p>
<p>如果能够成功获得所需的合同，摩根士丹利认为 GMG 可以解锁多年的盈利灵活性，数据中心的盈利可能会在市场预期之前开始显现。尽管它已下调了 FY27 和 FY28 的盈利预期，但券商仍预测在此期间 EPS 将强劲增长。</p>
<p>在 Commsec 的特别财报季节版《买入、持有、卖出》中，David Lloyd 和 Dushko Bajic 也将 GMG 评为买入。</p>
<p>QBE Insurance</p>
<ul>
<li>券商评级：
<ul>
<li>8 买入，0 持有，0 卖出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共识潜力：
<ul>
<li>12.47%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>QBE Insurance 在二月份报告了强劲的 FY25 业绩，净利润达到 21 亿美元，调整后的股本回报率接近 20%。</p>
<p>但保险业在市场对人工智能干扰的恐惧中成为了更令人惊讶的受害者，这导致 QBE 在过去一年中在行业层面和 ASX 200 的其他部分表现不佳。</p>
<p>QBE Insurance 1 年图表（来源：Market Index）</p>
<p>但与被卷入所谓 SaaSpocalypse 的软件股票不同，有论据表明保险业更能抵御人工智能的影响。</p>
<p>正如我的同事 Carl Capolingua 关于人工智能引发的保险抛售所言，&#34;目前，市场似乎在定价最坏的情况。&#34;</p>
<p>Will Mumford 认为，考虑到保险行业的复杂性和细微差别，市场可能反应过度——这是人工智能可能难以处理的事情。</p>
<p>这是一个相当复杂的价值链。这些都是高风险领域，涉及复杂的监管和重要的人际关系。如果您的保险政策出现问题，您希望有人可以沟通并承担责任。</p>
<p>ETF Shares 的 William Taylor 认为 QBE 是一个价值投资，同时也是利率上升的潜在受益者。</p>
<p>&#34;QBE 正在积极重新定价其保费以保护利润，&#34;他写道。&#34;这种向低波动和稳定、高质量利润的过渡反映了我们在全球范围内看到的收获阶段，在这一阶段，运营纪律将结构性变化转化为盈利。&#34;</p>
<p>摩根士丹利将 QBE 视为其&#34;首选的人工智能投资，具有进攻性增长选项，&#34;并指出来自网络和数据中心的保费增长、有限的人工智能干扰风险以及高成本节约机会是潜在催化剂。</p>
<p>Sigma Healthcare</p>
<ul>
<li>券商评级：
<ul>
<li>7 买入，3 持有，0 卖出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共识潜力：
<ul>
<li>19.70%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>制药分销和零售商 Sigma Healthcare 在过去 12 个月中因澳大利亚医疗保健的整体抛售而受到影响，尽管有强劲的顺风和防御性定位。</p>
<p>Sigma Healthcare 1 年图表（来源：Market Index）</p>
<p>它在 2025 年与 Chemist Warehouse Group 合并，Chemist Warehouse 网络的销售增长了 17.2%，达到 51 亿美元，并承诺国际扩张。</p>
<p>IML 的 Daniel Moore 选择 Sigma 作为他 2026 年的两个推荐之一，原因是 Chemist Warehouse 的预期增长。</p>
<p>Chemist Warehouse 是高增长药房行业的一个类别杀手格式。我们预计他们将继续以折扣优惠的方式将销售额增长远超行业水平。</p>
<p>Marcus Today's Henry Jennings 也将 SIG 提出作为他的新 ASX 蓝筹股建议之一，Morgans 将该股票加入其高信念的&#34;最佳创意&#34;名单。</p>

昆士兰保险(ADR)

<p>ASX 大型股的表现优于更广泛的市场，这引发了对高估值的担忧。尽管如此，分析师仍然将 Goodman Group、QBE Insurance 和 Sigma Healthcare 视为强烈买入的选项，预计有超过 10% 的上涨潜力。Goodman Group 正在向数据中心转型，QBE Insurance 在人工智能担忧中展现出韧性，而 Sigma Healthcare 则具备增长潜力。ASX 20 的表现与 ASX 其他部分形成鲜明对比，为价值投资者在更广泛的指数中创造了机会。总体而言，尽管估值偏高，ASX 20 仍然存在选择性的上涨空间</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>ASX large caps have surged far ahead of the broader market, creating an unprecedented valuation gap and raising questions about whether the top end of town is now overvalued.</li>
<li>Despite stretched valuations, brokers still see selective upside in a handful of ASX 20 names, screening for Strong Buy ratings and at least 10% upside potential.</li>
<li>Goodman Group (GMG), QBE Insurance (QBE) and Sigma Healthcare (SIG) stand out as consensus Buy ideas, supported by structural growth themes spanning AI infrastructure, insurance resilience, and pharmacy expansion.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>ASX 大型股的涨幅远超整体市场，造成前所未有的估值差距，并引发了关于高端市场是否被高估的质疑。</li>
<li>尽管估值偏高，券商仍然在少数 ASX 20 股票中看到选择性的上涨潜力，筛选出强烈买入评级和至少 10% 的上涨潜力。</li>
<li>Goodman Group (GMG)、QBE Insurance (QBE) 和 Sigma Healthcare (SIG) 被视为共识买入的优质选择，受益于涵盖人工智能基础设施、保险韧性和药房扩张的结构性增长主题。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>One of the interesting ASX trends that has been overshadowed by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been the extreme dislocation between Australia's large cap stocks and the rest of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中东持续冲突的阴影下，ASX 的一个有趣趋势是澳大利亚大型股与市场其他部分之间的极端脱节。</p>
</div><p>While the ASX was up 3% over February, despite a volatile reporting season, it was driven entirely by the top end of town.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管二月份的财报季波动较大，ASX 仍上涨了 3%，但这一涨幅完全是由高端市场推动的。</p>
</div><p>As Auscap's Will Mumford told me in a recent interview, &#34;the ASX 20 over February was up about 7.5% and every other part of the ASX was down.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如 Auscap 的 Will Mumford 在最近的采访中告诉我的那样，&#34;二月份 ASX 20 上涨了约 7.5%，而 ASX 的其他部分则下跌了。&#34;</p>
</div><p>And this dramatic market dislocation has created a situation where the P/E spread between the ASX's biggest stocks and the rest of the ASX 200 is now at unprecedented levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种戏剧性的市场脱节导致 ASX 最大股票与 ASX 200 其他股票之间的市盈率差距达到了前所未有的水平。</p>
</div><p>(Source: FactSet, Auscap)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（来源：FactSet，Auscap）</p>
</div><p>Auscap's Tim Carleton says it's made the rest of the index (the ASX 200 Ex-ASX 20) a fertile hunting ground for value investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Auscap 的 Tim Carleton 表示，这使得 ASX 200 除 ASX 20 外的其他部分成为价值投资者的肥沃猎场。</p>
</div><p>That’s throwing up a lot of opportunities in companies that we think are very, very high quality and will deliver very strong earnings growth over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为我们认为非常高质量且将随着时间推移实现强劲盈利增长的公司提供了许多机会。</p>
</div><p>But is there any value remaining right at the top?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在高端市场是否还有剩余价值呢？</p>
</div><p>To find out, we've run a screen on the ASX 20, filtered by the following criteria:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了找出答案，我们对 ASX 20 进行了筛选，过滤条件如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Rated a Strong Buy by Market Index's Broker Consensus tool</li>
<li>Have at least 10% upside potential</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>被 Market Index 的券商共识工具评为强烈买入</li>
<li>至少有 10% 的上涨潜力</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, the majority of stocks in the ASX 20 have been given Sell or Hold ratings by brokers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不出所料，ASX 20 中大多数股票被券商给予了卖出或持有评级。</p>
</div><p>But there are three ASX stocks the brokers believe are still offering good upside potential and are a strong consensus Buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但有三只 ASX 股票被券商认为仍然提供良好的上涨潜力，并且是强烈共识买入。</p>
</div><p>Goodman Group</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goodman Group</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Broker ratings:
<ul>
<li>7 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consensus potential:
<ul>
<li>31.92%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>券商评级：
<ul>
<li>7 买入，1 持有，0 卖出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共识潜力：
<ul>
<li>31.92%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Industrial and infrastructure real estate developer Goodman Group has firmly hitched its wagon to the AI train, and is currently transitioning from industrial specialist to data centre developer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工业和基础设施房地产开发商 Goodman Group 坚定地与人工智能发展相结合，目前正在从工业专业公司转型为数据中心开发商。</p>
</div><p>While it beat expectations with its recent results, it arguably dropped off a lack of updates on its data centre leasing and uncertain earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其最近的业绩超出预期，但由于缺乏关于数据中心租赁的更新和不确定的盈利增长，可能导致其表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>Goodman Group 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goodman Group 1 年图表（来源：Market Index）</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley maintain an Overweight rating on GMG, and believes the market is underestimating the company's upcoming profit-generating events, especially around securing customer contracts for its European data centre developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利对 GMG 维持增持评级，并认为市场低估了公司即将产生的盈利事件，特别是在确保其欧洲数据中心开发的客户合同方面。</p>
</div><p>Provided it can successfully secure the requisite contracts, Morgan Stanley believes GMG can unlock multi-year earnings flexibility, and data centre earnings may begin to filter through ahead of market expectations. While it has revised FY27 and FY28 earnings downwards, the broker still forecasts strong EPS growth over that period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果能够成功获得所需的合同，摩根士丹利认为 GMG 可以解锁多年的盈利灵活性，数据中心的盈利可能会在市场预期之前开始显现。尽管它已下调了 FY27 和 FY28 的盈利预期，但券商仍预测在此期间 EPS 将强劲增长。</p>
</div><p>GMG was also rated a Buy by both David Lloyd and Dushko Bajic in Commsec's special reporting season edition of Buy Hold Sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Commsec 的特别财报季节版《买入、持有、卖出》中，David Lloyd 和 Dushko Bajic 也将 GMG 评为买入。</p>
</div><p>QBE Insurance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QBE Insurance</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Broker ratings:
<ul>
<li>8 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consensus potential:
<ul>
<li>12.47%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>券商评级：
<ul>
<li>8 买入，0 持有，0 卖出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共识潜力：
<ul>
<li>12.47%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><p>QBE Insurance reported strong FY25 results in February, with NPAT hitting US$2.1 billion, and adjusted return on equity just shy of 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QBE Insurance 在二月份报告了强劲的 FY25 业绩，净利润达到 21 亿美元，调整后的股本回报率接近 20%。</p>
</div><p>But insurance has been one of the more surprising casualties of the market's AI disruption fears, and meant QBE has underperformed on both a sector level and against the rest of the ASX 200 over the last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但保险业在市场对人工智能干扰的恐惧中成为了更令人惊讶的受害者，这导致 QBE 在过去一年中在行业层面和 ASX 200 的其他部分表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>QBE Insurance 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QBE Insurance 1 年图表（来源：Market Index）</p>
</div><p>But unlike the software stocks caught up in the so-called SaaSpocalypse, there's arguments to suggest insurance is better insulated against AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与被卷入所谓 SaaSpocalypse 的软件股票不同，有论据表明保险业更能抵御人工智能的影响。</p>
</div><p>As my colleague Carl Capolingua argued regarding the AI-led insurance selloff, &#34;for now, markets appear to be pricing in the worst-case scenario.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我的同事 Carl Capolingua 关于人工智能引发的保险抛售所言，&#34;目前，市场似乎在定价最坏的情况。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Will Mumford believes the market may have overreacted given the complexities and nuances of the insurance industry - something AI may be ill-equipped to handle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Will Mumford 认为，考虑到保险行业的复杂性和细微差别，市场可能反应过度——这是人工智能可能难以处理的事情。</p>
</div><p>It's quite a complex value chain. These are high stakes areas with complex regulation and where relationships matter. If anything goes wrong with your insurance policy, you want someone to talk to and to blame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个相当复杂的价值链。这些都是高风险领域，涉及复杂的监管和重要的人际关系。如果您的保险政策出现问题，您希望有人可以沟通并承担责任。</p>
</div><p>ETF Shares' William Taylor sees QBE as a value play, as well as a potential beneficiary of rising interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF Shares 的 William Taylor 认为 QBE 是一个价值投资，同时也是利率上升的潜在受益者。</p>
</div><p>&#34;QBE is aggressively repricing its premiums to protect margins,&#34; he wrote. &#34;This transition toward lower volatility and stable, high quality profits mirrors the harvest phase we are seeing globally, where operational discipline turns structural shifts into an earnings.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;QBE 正在积极重新定价其保费以保护利润，&#34;他写道。&#34;这种向低波动和稳定、高质量利润的过渡反映了我们在全球范围内看到的收获阶段，在这一阶段，运营纪律将结构性变化转化为盈利。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley considers QBE its &#34;preferred AI play with offensive growth options,&#34; citing higher premium growth from cyber and data centres, limited AI disruption risk, and high cost savings opportunities as potential catalysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利将 QBE 视为其&#34;首选的人工智能投资，具有进攻性增长选项，&#34;并指出来自网络和数据中心的保费增长、有限的人工智能干扰风险以及高成本节约机会是潜在催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Sigma Healthcare</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sigma Healthcare</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Broker ratings:
<ul>
<li>7 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consensus potential:
<ul>
<li>19.70%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>券商评级：
<ul>
<li>7 买入，3 持有，0 卖出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共识潜力：
<ul>
<li>19.70%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Pharmaceutical distributor and retailer Sigma Healthcare has suffered as part of a broader selloff in Australian healthcare over the last 12 months, despite strong tailwinds and defensive positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>制药分销和零售商 Sigma Healthcare 在过去 12 个月中因澳大利亚医疗保健的整体抛售而受到影响，尽管有强劲的顺风和防御性定位。</p>
</div><p>Sigma Healthcare 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sigma Healthcare 1 年图表（来源：Market Index）</p>
</div><p>It merged with Chemist Warehouse Group in February 2025, with the Chemist Warehouse network growing sales 17.2% to $5.1 billion and promising international expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在 2025 年与 Chemist Warehouse Group 合并，Chemist Warehouse 网络的销售增长了 17.2%，达到 51 亿美元，并承诺国际扩张。</p>
</div><p>IML's Daniel Moore chose Sigma as one of his two picks for 2026 due to expected growth from Chemist Warehouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IML 的 Daniel Moore 选择 Sigma 作为他 2026 年的两个推荐之一，原因是 Chemist Warehouse 的预期增长。</p>
</div><p>Chemist Warehouse is a category killer format in the high-growth pharmacy sector. We expect they will continue to grow their sales well above the industry with their discount offer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chemist Warehouse 是高增长药房行业的一个类别杀手格式。我们预计他们将继续以折扣优惠的方式将销售额增长远超行业水平。</p>
</div><p>Marcus Today's Henry Jennings also put SIG forward as one of his suggestions for new ASX blue chips and Morgans added the stock to its high conviction 'Best Ideas' list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Marcus Today's Henry Jennings 也将 SIG 提出作为他的新 ASX 蓝筹股建议之一，Morgans 将该股票加入其高信念的&#34;最佳创意&#34;名单。</p>
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目前是否有任何 ASX 前 20 名股票值得强力买入？