<p>美元/日元在关键的 160 阻力位停滞后显示出疲态，熊市背离暗示可能出现回调。同时，日经 225 期货在 5 万以上构建了一个良好的基础，受到日元走强前景的支持。</p>
<p>尽管地缘政治风险可能在短期内引发波动并导致价格剧烈波动，但两个市场的技术形态指向可能的动能转变——美元/日元下跌，日经上涨。</p>
<p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>澳元/美元展望：特朗普讲话可能引发突破或下跌</li>
<li>美元展望：四月的熊市季节性与中东变数相遇</li>
<li>外汇期货持仓：美元、欧元/美元、美元/日元 | COT 报告</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元/日元技术分析：美元对日元</h2>
<h3>美元/日元在 160 的拒绝信号潜在的低高点</h3>
<p>周二形成了一根小的射击之星蜡烛，但更重要的是它测试并尊重了 160 作为阻力。这为交易者在关键水平上形成低高点留下了潜力，即使这仅仅是向下修正至略低于 159 的 20 日 EMA 的信号。</p>
<p>注意到在 3 月高点前，RSI（14）和 RSI（2）均出现了熊市背离，这警告了潜在的顶部。而且，周线图上上周显示出一根拉长的吊人蜡烛，我们可能需要警惕日元走强和美元走弱，这可能导致美元/日元从当前水平下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>地缘政治和波动风险可能驱动剧烈波动</h3>
<p>当然，这样的走势假设伊朗局势出现积极进展。虽然我们希望情况确实如此，但交易者也应该为短期内的双向波动做好准备，这可能导致价格剧烈波动，然后才会出现真正的走势。但从纯技术的角度来看，我的偏见是短期内向下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<h2>日经 225 期货（NK）技术分析</h2>
<h3>日经 225 在 5 万以上构建看涨结构</h3>
<p>如果日元走强并使美元/日元下跌，这在短期内可能对日经是看涨的。这正是图表所暗示的，即使该形态仍然容易受到剧烈波动的影响。</p>
<p>日经期货图表显示在 5 万以上形成了双底，随后多头在上周推动了为期三天的反弹。虽然在 55k 附近遇到了阻力，但回调幅度较小，价格走势指向可能形成看涨旗形。此外，注意到周二的看涨针形蜡烛，显示出本周范围内的需求以及价格向上突破的愿望。</p>
<h3>55k 突破是解锁进一步上涨的关键</h3>
<p>目前，我的偏见仍然看涨，只要价格保持在周四的低点（52,230）之上，突破 55k 是关键的上涨触发点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CME，TradingView</em></p>
<p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

1466

1346

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

<p>美元/日元在 160 的阻力位显示出疲态，暗示可能出现回调，而日经 225 期货在 5 万以上构建底部，表明看涨前景。地缘政治风险可能导致波动，但技术形态显示出动能可能发生转变，美元/日元可能下跌，而日经则可能上涨。相对强弱指数（RSI）上的看跌背离对美元/日元发出警告，而日经突破 5.5 万可能会开启进一步上涨的空间。交易者应为近期可能出现的剧烈价格波动做好准备</p>

<p>USD/JPY is showing signs of fatigue after stalling at the key 160 resistance level, with bearish divergence hinting at a potential pullback. At the same time, Nikkei 225 futures are building a constructive base above 50k, supported by the prospect of a stronger Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元在关键的 160 阻力位停滞后显示出疲态，熊市背离暗示可能出现回调。同时，日经 225 期货在 5 万以上构建了一个良好的基础，受到日元走强前景的支持。</p>
</div><p>While geopolitical risks could inject volatility and trigger whipsaw price action in the near term, the technical setups across both markets point to a possible shift in momentum—USD/JPY lower and Nikkei higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管地缘政治风险可能在短期内引发波动并导致价格剧烈波动，但两个市场的技术形态指向可能的动能转变——美元/日元下跌，日经上涨。</p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>AUD/USD Outlook: Trump Address Could Trigger Breakout or Breakdown</li>
<li>US Dollar Outlook: Bearish April Seasonality Meets Middle East Wildcard</li>
<li>FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY | COT report</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>澳元/美元展望：特朗普讲话可能引发突破或下跌</li>
<li>美元展望：四月的熊市季节性与中东变数相遇</li>
<li>外汇期货持仓：美元、欧元/美元、美元/日元 | COT 报告</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元技术分析：美元对日元</h2>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Rejection at 160 Signals Potential Lower High</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元/日元在 160 的拒绝信号潜在的低高点</h3>
</div><p>A small shooting star candle formed on Tuesday, but what makes it more significant is that it tested – and respected – 160 as resistance. This leaves the potential for a lower high to form at a key level for traders, even if it only signals some mean reversion towards the 20-day EMA just below 159.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二形成了一根小的射击之星蜡烛，但更重要的是它测试并尊重了 160 作为阻力。这为交易者在关键水平上形成低高点留下了潜力，即使这仅仅是向下修正至略低于 159 的 20 日 EMA 的信号。</p>
</div><p>Note the bearish divergence on both RSI (14) and RSI (2) heading into the March high, which warned of a potential top. And with the weekly chart showing an elongated hanging man candle last week, we may need to be on guard for some Japanese yen strength and US dollar weakness, which could see USD/JPY fall from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>注意到在 3 月高点前，RSI（14）和 RSI（2）均出现了熊市背离，这警告了潜在的顶部。而且，周线图上上周显示出一根拉长的吊人蜡烛，我们可能需要警惕日元走强和美元走弱，这可能导致美元/日元从当前水平下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>Geopolitics and Volatility Risks Could Drive Whipsaw Moves</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>地缘政治和波动风险可能驱动剧烈波动</h3>
</div><p>Of course, such a move assumes positive developments on the Iran situation. While we hope that proves to be the case, traders should also be prepared for two-way volatility in the near term, which could lead to whipsaw price action before the real move unfolds. But from a purely technical perspective, my bias is for the downside over the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这样的走势假设伊朗局势出现积极进展。虽然我们希望情况确实如此，但交易者也应该为短期内的双向波动做好准备，这可能导致价格剧烈波动，然后才会出现真正的走势。但从纯技术的角度来看，我的偏见是短期内向下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>Nikkei 225 Futures (NK) Technical Analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日经 225 期货（NK）技术分析</h2>
</div><h3>Nikkei 225 Builds Bullish Structure Above 50k</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日经 225 在 5 万以上构建看涨结构</h3>
</div><p>If the Japanese yen strengthens and sends USD/JPY lower, this could be bullish for the Nikkei in the near term. That is what the charts appear to be hinting at, even if the setup remains vulnerable to some nasty whipsaws.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果日元走强并使美元/日元下跌，这在短期内可能对日经是看涨的。这正是图表所暗示的，即使该形态仍然容易受到剧烈波动的影响。</p>
</div><p>The Nikkei futures chart shows a double bottom forming above 50k before bulls drove a three-day rally last week. While resistance was met just below 55k, the pullback has been shallow, and price action points to the potential formation of a bull flag. Also, note the bullish pinbar on Tuesday which shows demand within this week’s range and a desire for prices to break higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经期货图表显示在 5 万以上形成了双底，随后多头在上周推动了为期三天的反弹。虽然在 55k 附近遇到了阻力，但回调幅度较小，价格走势指向可能形成看涨旗形。此外，注意到周二的看涨针形蜡烛，显示出本周范围内的需求以及价格向上突破的愿望。</p>
</div><h3>55k Break Key to Unlock Further Upside</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>55k 突破是解锁进一步上涨的关键</h3>
</div><p>For now, my bias remains bullish while prices hold above Thursday’s low (52,230), with a break above 55k the key upside trigger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，我的偏见仍然看涨，只要价格保持在周四的低点（52,230）之上，突破 55k 是关键的上涨触发点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CME，TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar Stalls at 160 as Nikkei Eyes Gains

Forex

Daiwa Securities Group, Inc.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

BlackRock, Inc.

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

Asset Management One Co., Ltd.

Simplex Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives Group

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

美元/日元前景：美元在 160 关口停滞不前，日经指数关注上涨趋势