<p>周四，亚洲市场紧张不安，霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势重新引发投资者的不安，推动油价再次上涨，并重新唤起了对通胀、能源供应和利率前景的担忧。</p>
<p>这种更加谨慎的语气是在前一天的强劲反弹之后出现的，当时市场因对海湾地区紧张局势可能缓解的希望而感到宽慰。</p>
<p>在伊朗表示它控制了霍尔木兹海峡并将对使用该航道的船只征收通行费后，这种乐观情绪消退，这一举动引发了对全球最重要能源走廊之一可能再次受到干扰的担忧。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡约占全球石油和液化天然气流量的五分之一，因此对该地区交通的任何威胁对全球市场尤其重要。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-demands-allies-secure-strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran.html</p>
<p><strong>霍尔木兹紧张局势再度成为焦点</strong></p>
<p>随着交易者重新评估供应紧张的风险，油价上涨。</p>
<p>美国原油上涨 2.82%，至每桶 96.99 美元，而布伦特原油上涨 2.14%，至 96.74 美元，部分扭转了前一交易日的下跌，因为市场重新考虑了地缘政治风险溢价。</p>
<p>原油的反弹为该地区更广泛的交易定下了基调。</p>
<p>在前一交易日因停火驱动的宽慰交易中买入的投资者被迫重新考虑停火是否足以稳定航运并控制冲突带来的经济影响。</p>
<p>结果是股票、货币和利率市场的情绪更加谨慎。</p>
<p><strong>股票失去动能</strong></p>
<p>日本日经 225 指数在周三上涨 5.4% 后几乎没有变化，表明早期的乐观情绪已经开始减退。</p>
<p>韩国 KOSPI 指数下跌 0.4%，回吐了前一交易日的部分超额涨幅，交易者在风险偏好上变得更加挑剔。</p>
<p>美国期货也指向一个较软的开局。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 期货下跌 0.2%，而纳斯达克 100 期货同样下滑，表明华尔街对最新事态发展也采取了更加谨慎的态度。</p>
<p>在欧洲，市场表现参差不齐，欧元区 STOXX 50 期货小幅上涨，德国 DAX 期货下跌，富时 100 期货小幅走强。</p>
<p><strong>通胀担忧再现</strong></p>
<p>油价的重新上涨使通胀再次成为市场叙事的中心。</p>
<p>能源价格的上涨迅速传导至运输、制造和家庭成本，投资者越来越担心原油的再次持续上涨可能会使去通胀的故事变得复杂。</p>
<p>这一担忧在最新的美联储纪要中得到了加强，纪要对经济增长的态度基本中立，但显示出越来越多的政策制定者认为如果通胀保持高位，可能需要提高利率。</p>
<p>市场逐渐削减了对降息的预期，联邦基金期货现在仅暗示今年剩余时间内将有微小的降息。</p>
<p>这标志着与仅几周前更鸽派的假设相比的明显转变。</p>
<p><strong>债券和货币反映谨慎</strong></p>
<p>由于投资者权衡持续的能源通胀可能使政策保持更长时间紧缩，国债收益率保持在高位。</p>
<p>10 年期国债收益率为 4.29%，远高于最新一轮地缘政治压力期间的水平，这表明债券投资者不再相信单纯的风险情绪疲软足以使收益率下降。</p>
<p>货币市场也反映出这种不安的情绪。</p>
<p>美元整体变化不大，而欧元接近近期低点，日元作为传统避险货币仍然受到关注。</p>
<p>黄金和石油均小幅上涨，另一个迹象表明投资者正在重建对进一步动荡风险的保护。</p>
<p><strong>市场关注的焦点</strong></p>
<p>目前，下一步的动向将取决于霍尔木兹周围的紧张局势是否进一步升级，或者最新的言辞是否更多是姿态而非政策。</p>
<p>任何对航运的具体干扰都将迅速加剧对供应、通胀和中央银行克制的担忧。</p>
<p>这使得市场处于脆弱的状态。</p>
<p>周三的宽慰反弹显示出当升级威胁减退时情绪可以多么迅速改善，但周四的交易同样清晰地强调了相反的观点。</p>

和顺石油

西方石油

英国石油

<p>亚洲市场因霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势而感到不安，油价上涨并重新引发通胀担忧。伊朗声称对该海峡的控制权，并计划对船只征收通行费，这引发了对这一关键能源走廊可能出现中断的担忧。KOSPI 指数下跌 0.4%，而美国期货则显示出谨慎的开盘态势。油价上涨重新点燃了通胀担忧，复杂化了利率前景。投资者正密切关注局势，以评估对供应和中央银行政策的潜在影响</p>

<p>Asian markets were on edge on Thursday as renewed friction over the Strait of Hormuz unsettled investors, pushing oil prices higher again and reviving concerns about inflation, energy supplies and the interest-rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，亚洲市场紧张不安，霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势重新引发投资者的不安，推动油价再次上涨，并重新唤起了对通胀、能源供应和利率前景的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The more cautious tone followed a sharp relief rally a day earlier, when markets had taken comfort from hopes that tensions in the Gulf might ease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种更加谨慎的语气是在前一天的强劲反弹之后出现的，当时市场因对海湾地区紧张局势可能缓解的希望而感到宽慰。</p>
</div><p>That optimism faded after Iran said it was in control of the Strait of Hormuz and would seek a toll from vessels using the route, a move that raised fears of fresh disruption to one of the world’s most important energy corridors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗表示它控制了霍尔木兹海峡并将对使用该航道的船只征收通行费后，这种乐观情绪消退，这一举动引发了对全球最重要能源走廊之一可能再次受到干扰的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making any threat to traffic there especially significant for global markets.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-demands-allies-secure-strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran.html</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡约占全球石油和液化天然气流量的五分之一，因此对该地区交通的任何威胁对全球市场尤其重要。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-demands-allies-secure-strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran.html</p>
</div><p><strong>Hormuz tensions return to the fore</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>霍尔木兹紧张局势再度成为焦点</strong></p>
</div><p>Oil prices climbed as traders reassessed the risk of tighter supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着交易者重新评估供应紧张的风险，油价上涨。</p>
</div><p>US crude rose 2.82% to $96.99 a barrel, while Brent crude added 2.14% to $96.74, reversing part of the previous session’s decline as the market priced back in a geopolitical risk premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国原油上涨 2.82%，至每桶 96.99 美元，而布伦特原油上涨 2.14%，至 96.74 美元，部分扭转了前一交易日的下跌，因为市场重新考虑了地缘政治风险溢价。</p>
</div><p>That rebound in crude set the tone for broader trading across the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油的反弹为该地区更广泛的交易定下了基调。</p>
</div><p>Investors who had spent the previous session buying into a ceasefire-driven relief trade were forced to reconsider whether the truce would be enough to stabilise shipping and contain the economic fallout from the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在前一交易日因停火驱动的宽慰交易中买入的投资者被迫重新考虑停火是否足以稳定航运并控制冲突带来的经济影响。</p>
</div><p>The result was a more defensive mood across equities, currencies and rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是股票、货币和利率市场的情绪更加谨慎。</p>
</div><p><strong>Equities lose momentum</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>股票失去动能</strong></p>
</div><p>Japan’s Nikkei 225 was little changed after surging 5.4% on Wednesday, suggesting the earlier burst of optimism had already started to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日经 225 指数在周三上涨 5.4% 后几乎没有变化，表明早期的乐观情绪已经开始减退。</p>
</div><p>South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 0.4%, giving back some of the previous session’s outsized gains as traders grew more selective in their appetite for risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国 KOSPI 指数下跌 0.4%，回吐了前一交易日的部分超额涨幅，交易者在风险偏好上变得更加挑剔。</p>
</div><p>US futures also pointed to a softer start.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国期货也指向一个较软的开局。</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by the same margin, indicating that Wall Street was also taking a more cautious view of the latest developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 期货下跌 0.2%，而纳斯达克 100 期货同样下滑，表明华尔街对最新事态发展也采取了更加谨慎的态度。</p>
</div><p>In Europe, the picture was mixed, with Euro STOXX 50 futures edging higher, German DAX futures falling and FTSE 100 futures modestly firmer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在欧洲，市场表现参差不齐，欧元区 STOXX 50 期货小幅上涨，德国 DAX 期货下跌，富时 100 期货小幅走强。</p>
</div><p><strong>Inflation fears resurface</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>通胀担忧再现</strong></p>
</div><p>The renewed rise in oil has put inflation back at the centre of the market narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价的重新上涨使通胀再次成为市场叙事的中心。</p>
</div><p>Higher energy prices feed quickly into transport, manufacturing and household costs, and investors are increasingly worried that another sustained move up in crude could complicate the disinflation story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源价格的上涨迅速传导至运输、制造和家庭成本，投资者越来越担心原油的再次持续上涨可能会使去通胀的故事变得复杂。</p>
</div><p>That concern was reinforced by the latest Fed minutes, which struck a largely neutral tone on growth but showed that a growing number of policymakers saw a possible case for higher rates if inflation remained elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一担忧在最新的美联储纪要中得到了加强，纪要对经济增长的态度基本中立，但显示出越来越多的政策制定者认为如果通胀保持高位，可能需要提高利率。</p>
</div><p>Markets have steadily pared back expectations for easing, with fed funds futures now implying only minimal cuts for the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场逐渐削减了对降息的预期，联邦基金期货现在仅暗示今年剩余时间内将有微小的降息。</p>
</div><p>That marks a clear shift from the more dovish assumptions seen only weeks ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这标志着与仅几周前更鸽派的假设相比的明显转变。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bonds and currencies reflect caution</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>债券和货币反映谨慎</strong></p>
</div><p>Treasury yields remained elevated as investors weighed the prospect that persistent energy inflation could keep policy tighter for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投资者权衡持续的能源通胀可能使政策保持更长时间紧缩，国债收益率保持在高位。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.29%, well above levels seen earlier in the latest bout of geopolitical stress, suggesting bond investors are no longer convinced that weaker risk sentiment alone will be enough to bring yields down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期国债收益率为 4.29%，远高于最新一轮地缘政治压力期间的水平，这表明债券投资者不再相信单纯的风险情绪疲软足以使收益率下降。</p>
</div><p>Currency markets also reflected the uneasy tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币市场也反映出这种不安的情绪。</p>
</div><p>The dollar was little changed overall, while the euro held close to a recent low and the yen remained in focus as a traditional haven currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元整体变化不大，而欧元接近近期低点，日元作为传统避险货币仍然受到关注。</p>
</div><p>Gold and oil both edged higher, another sign that investors were rebuilding some protection against the risk of further turbulence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金和石油均小幅上涨，另一个迹象表明投资者正在重建对进一步动荡风险的保护。</p>
</div><p><strong>What markets are watching</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市场关注的焦点</strong></p>
</div><p>For now, the next move will depend on whether tensions around Hormuz escalate further or whether the latest rhetoric proves to be more posturing than policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，下一步的动向将取决于霍尔木兹周围的紧张局势是否进一步升级，或者最新的言辞是否更多是姿态而非政策。</p>
</div><p>Any concrete disruption to shipping would quickly intensify worries about supply, inflation and central-bank restraint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何对航运的具体干扰都将迅速加剧对供应、通胀和中央银行克制的担忧。</p>
</div><p>That leaves markets in a fragile position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得市场处于脆弱的状态。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday’s relief rally showed how quickly sentiment can improve when the threat of escalation recedes, but Thursday’s trading underlined the opposite point just as clearly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三的宽慰反弹显示出当升级威胁减退时情绪可以多么迅速改善，但周四的交易同样清晰地强调了相反的观点。</p>
</div>

Kospi slips as Iran's Hormuz gambit puts Asian markets back on edge

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由于伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的策略使亚洲市场重新陷入紧张，Kospi 指数下滑