<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/cC1WJS_yuMinm8zV0I.yoQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/6ac67b273f57b159fab267db1bae5ecc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/cC1WJS_yuMinm8zV0I.yoQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/6ac67b273f57b159fab267db1bae5ecc"/></p>
<p>自伊朗战争爆发以来，航空燃料成本已翻了一番以上。</p>
<p>在中东持续六周的战争冲击下，航空公司纷纷削减航线和成本，因为燃料账单激增，谨慎的客户对旅行计划三思而后行，这种情况即使在脆弱的停火协议下也可能持续。</p>
<p>航空公司在海湾地区基本停止了航班，法航本周宣布将暂停航班延长至 5 月 3 日——一位消息人士表示，此决定是在本周美国与伊朗之间的停火之前做出的。</p>
<p>由于无法确定航空燃料价格是否会回到战争前的低点，首席执行官们不得不重新考虑扩张计划和飞机订单。</p>
<p>法国蒙彼利埃商学院的航空专家保罗·基安巴雷托表示：“航空业正遭受两次同时冲击：燃料价格的急剧上涨，这是航空公司最大的或第二大开支，以及需求冲击，乘客决定观望。”</p>
<p>在战争爆发前，航空燃料的价格约为每吨 830 美元，而在四月初超过每吨 1800 美元，周三仍维持在 1786 美元。</p>
<p>法国航空联合会（FNAM）主席帕斯卡尔·德·伊扎吉尔对《论坛报》表示：“这绝对是巨大的。”</p>
<p>他说，燃料通常占航空公司运营成本的 25% 到 30%，但在当前价格下，现在占到了 45%。</p>
<p>- 固定附加费？ -</p>
<p>为了保持盈利，票价已被提高，一些航班因飞机未满而被暂停或无限期取消。</p>
<p>越南航空甚至在四月开始每周取消约 20 个国内航班，原因是缺乏航空燃料。</p>
<p>许多航空公司已经施加了燃油附加费，这可能会变得顽固，特别是如果在未来几个月内未能显著减少机票销售的话。</p>
<p>德·伊扎吉尔表示，尽管目前的燃油附加费 “远远太低”，无法抵消更高的成本，但 “航空公司担心如果涨幅过大会产生负面影响。”</p>
<p>但香港航空巨头国泰航空自二月以来已多次提高附加费，即使在宣布增加前往欧洲的航班以应对所谓的 “市场需求激增” 时。</p>
<p>行业高管们在思考中东动荡是否会促使人们在更长时间内改变旅行计划，可能会平衡区域航线暂停的影响。</p>
<p>一些航空公司表示，他们计划在十月之前不恢复前往中东的航班。</p>
<p>如果油价保持高位并导致广泛的通货膨胀，压缩消费能力，企业和个人可能会决定限制在机票上的支出。</p>
<p>瑞安航空首席执行官迈克尔·奥利里上个月表示，飞行习惯已经在发生变化。</p>
<p>他说：“我认为，原本计划去中东或飞越中东度过复活节假期的人们现在正在转向葡萄牙、西班牙、南法、意大利和希腊。”</p>
<p>- 新常态？ -</p>
<p>战争的爆发也对中东大型枢纽的商业模式造成了严重破坏，这些枢纽依赖于来自美洲、欧洲和亚洲的长途航班的稳定客流。</p>
<p>由于德黑兰在该地区的报复性打击，迪拜、卡塔尔和阿布扎比的机场被迫关闭，导致数以万计的航班被取消，影响了数百万乘客。</p>
<p>在战争爆发前，迪拜是全球第二大客流量机场，仅次于亚特兰大，而多哈的客流量与香港或法兰克福相当。</p>
<p>自那时起，拥有长途飞机的欧洲和亚洲航空公司已开始在两个地区之间开通直飞航班，完全绕过海湾枢纽。</p>
<p>即使在重新开放后，这些机场也不太可能在短期内恢复到满负荷运转，只有在燃料价格如预期回落的情况下。</p>
<p>国际航空运输协会（IATA）总监威利·沃尔什本周警告称，如果停火成功，航空燃料供应和价格恢复正常仍需数月时间。</p>
<p>沃尔什表示：“我认为这不会在几周内发生。”</p>
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<p>航空公司正面临重大挑战，原因是中东地区持续的战争，自冲突开始以来，航空燃料价格已翻倍。许多航空公司已暂停在海湾地区的航班，法国航空已将航班暂停延长至 5 月 3 日。燃料成本的上升目前占运营费用的 45%，导致票价上涨和航线取消。行业专家警告称，即使停火得以维持，这种情况也可能导致旅行习惯和航空公司运营的长期变化</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/cC1WJS_yuMinm8zV0I.yoQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/6ac67b273f57b159fab267db1bae5ecc" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/cC1WJS_yuMinm8zV0I.yoQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/6ac67b273f57b159fab267db1bae5ecc"/></p>
<p>Jet fuel costs have more than doubled since the outbreak of the war against Iran (Fadel SENNA)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗战争爆发以来，航空燃料成本已翻了一番以上。</p>
</div><p>Buffeted by six weeks of war in the Middle East, airlines have scrambled to trim routes and costs as fuel bills explode and wary clients think twice about their travel plans, a situation that could persist even if a fragile truce holds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中东持续六周的战争冲击下，航空公司纷纷削减航线和成本，因为燃料账单激增，谨慎的客户对旅行计划三思而后行，这种情况即使在脆弱的停火协议下也可能持续。</p>
</div><p>Carriers have largely halted flights in the Gulf region, with Air France announcing this week that it was extending its suspensions until May 3 -- a decision a source said was made before this week's ceasefire between the United States and Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司在海湾地区基本停止了航班，法航本周宣布将暂停航班延长至 5 月 3 日——一位消息人士表示，此决定是在本周美国与伊朗之间的停火之前做出的。</p>
</div><p>With no certainty that jet fuel prices will return to pre-war lows, chief executives are having to rethink expansion plans and plane orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于无法确定航空燃料价格是否会回到战争前的低点，首席执行官们不得不重新考虑扩张计划和飞机订单。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The airline sector is being hit with two simultaneous shocks: the steep rise in fuel prices, which is the biggest or second-biggest expense for a carrier, and a demand shock, with passengers deciding to wait and see,&#34; said Paul Chiambaretto, a professor and aviation expert at the Montpellier Business School in France.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国蒙彼利埃商学院的航空专家保罗·基安巴雷托表示：“航空业正遭受两次同时冲击：燃料价格的急剧上涨，这是航空公司最大的或第二大开支，以及需求冲击，乘客决定观望。”</p>
</div><p>Jet fuel, which cost around $830 a ton before the war erupted, surpassed $1,800 a ton in early April, and was still at $1,786 on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在战争爆发前，航空燃料的价格约为每吨 830 美元，而在四月初超过每吨 1800 美元，周三仍维持在 1786 美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's absolutely colossal,&#34; Pascal de Izaguirre, president of the French aviation federation (FNAM), told business daily La Tribune published Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国航空联合会（FNAM）主席帕斯卡尔·德·伊扎吉尔对《论坛报》表示：“这绝对是巨大的。”</p>
</div><p>He said fuel usually represents 25 percent to 30 percent of an airline's operating costs, but at current prices it now accounts for 45 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，燃料通常占航空公司运营成本的 25% 到 30%，但在当前价格下，现在占到了 45%。</p>
</div><p>- Sticky surcharges? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 固定附加费？ -</p>
</div><p>To maintain profitability, ticket prices have been hiked and some routes where planes are not routinely full have been suspended or scrapped indefinitely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了保持盈利，票价已被提高，一些航班因飞机未满而被暂停或无限期取消。</p>
</div><p>Vietnam Airlines went so far as to cancel around 20 domestic flights per week starting in April, because of a lack of jet fuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南航空甚至在四月开始每周取消约 20 个国内航班，原因是缺乏航空燃料。</p>
</div><p>Many airlines have already imposed fuel surcharges that could prove sticky, especially if they do not lead to marked declines in ticket sales in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多航空公司已经施加了燃油附加费，这可能会变得顽固，特别是如果在未来几个月内未能显著减少机票销售的话。</p>
</div><p>De Izaguirre said that while fuel surcharges so far are &#34;far too low&#34; to offset the higher costs, &#34;airlines are afraid of a negative impact if the increases become too excessive&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德·伊扎吉尔表示，尽管目前的燃油附加费 “远远太低”，无法抵消更高的成本，但 “航空公司担心如果涨幅过大会产生负面影响。”</p>
</div><p>But Hong Kong aviation giant Cathay Pacific has raised its surcharges several times since February, even as it announced extra flights to Europe for what it called an &#34;upsurge in market demand&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但香港航空巨头国泰航空自二月以来已多次提高附加费，即使在宣布增加前往欧洲的航班以应对所谓的 “市场需求激增” 时。</p>
</div><p>Industry executives are wondering if the Middle East turmoil will prompt people to change their travel plans over the longer term, possibly balancing out the impact of regional route suspensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业高管们在思考中东动荡是否会促使人们在更长时间内改变旅行计划，可能会平衡区域航线暂停的影响。</p>
</div><p>Some carriers say they do not plan on resuming flights to the Middle East until October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些航空公司表示，他们计划在十月之前不恢复前往中东的航班。</p>
</div><p>And if oil prices stay high and lead to widespread inflation that crimps spending power, both businesses and individuals could decide to limit spending on airline tickets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果油价保持高位并导致广泛的通货膨胀，压缩消费能力，企业和个人可能会决定限制在机票上的支出。</p>
</div><p>Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary said last month that flying habits are already shifting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞安航空首席执行官迈克尔·奥利里上个月表示，飞行习惯已经在发生变化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think the people who were originally planning to either go to the Middle East or overfly the Middle East for their Easter school holidays are switching now and coming back to Portugal, Spain, South France, Italy, Greece,&#34; he told AFP at a European airline association meeting in Brussels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：“我认为，原本计划去中东或飞越中东度过复活节假期的人们现在正在转向葡萄牙、西班牙、南法、意大利和希腊。”</p>
</div><p>- A new normal? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 新常态？ -</p>
</div><p>The outbreak of war also wreaks havoc on the business model of massive hubs in the Middle East, which rely on a steady stream of passengers on long-haul flights to and from the Americas, Europe and Asia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争的爆发也对中东大型枢纽的商业模式造成了严重破坏，这些枢纽依赖于来自美洲、欧洲和亚洲的长途航班的稳定客流。</p>
</div><p>Airports in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi have been forced to close because of Tehran's retaliatory strikes across the region, resulting in tens of thousands of flights cancelled, affecting millions of passengers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于德黑兰在该地区的报复性打击，迪拜、卡塔尔和阿布扎比的机场被迫关闭，导致数以万计的航班被取消，影响了数百万乘客。</p>
</div><p>Before the war, Dubai was the world's second-biggest airport in terms of passengers transiting, after Atlanta, while Doha had passenger levels rivalling those of Hong Kong or Frankfurt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在战争爆发前，迪拜是全球第二大客流量机场，仅次于亚特兰大，而多哈的客流量与香港或法兰克福相当。</p>
</div><p>Since then, European and Asian carriers that have long-distance planes available have started direct flights between the two regions, bypassing Gulf hubs altogether.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时起，拥有长途飞机的欧洲和亚洲航空公司已开始在两个地区之间开通直飞航班，完全绕过海湾枢纽。</p>
</div><p>Even after reopening, the airports are unlikely to return to full capacity anytime soon, and only if fuel prices recede as hoped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在重新开放后，这些机场也不太可能在短期内恢复到满负荷运转，只有在燃料价格如预期回落的情况下。</p>
</div><p>Willie Walsh, director of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned this week that if the ceasefire succeeds, it will still take months for jet fuel supplies and prices to normalise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际航空运输协会（IATA）总监威利·沃尔什本周警告称，如果停火成功，航空燃料供应和价格恢复正常仍需数月时间。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't think it's going to happen in weeks,&#34; Walsh said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔什表示：“我认为这不会在几周内发生。”</p>
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尽管中东达成停战协议，航空公司仍担心长期的运营中断