--- title: "亚洲开发银行称，中东冲突正在考验亚洲的经济韧性" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282264966.md" description: "亚洲开发银行警告称，持续的中东冲突对亚太经济构成重大风险，可能导致通货膨胀上升和经济增长放缓。首席经济学家阿尔伯特·帕克强调，地缘政治紧张局势是该地区经济前景的核心。如果冲突持续，今年的增长可能降至 4.7%，同时通货膨胀上升。报告还指出，商品供应中断影响农业和技术行业，并警告金融环境收紧将对高杠杆经济体产生影响。总体而言，各个子地区的增长预计将放缓，对各国的影响各不相同" datetime: "2026-04-10T00:30:45.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282264966.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282264966.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282264966.md) --- # 亚洲开发银行称，中东冲突正在考验亚洲的经济韧性 By Fabiana Negrin Ochoa and Jihye Lee Asia-Pacific economies face a challenging time ahead as the fallout of the Middle East conflict threatens to fan inflation and curb growth, the Asian Development Bank says in its latest outlook. "The conflict in the Middle East places geopolitical risks squarely at the center of the economic outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific," said Albert Park, chief economist at ADB. The report comes after the U.S. struck a fragile cease-fire with Iran after five weeks of hostilities also involving Israel, which said it has backed the truce. "The cease-fire still appears quite fragile," Park said, adding that "prediction markets are not putting a high probability that it's going to last." When the multilateral development bank finalized its forecasts on March 10, it envisaged the conflict lasting around 1 month, with disruptions gradually easing thereafter. Under that scenario, it projects that growth in developing Asia and the Pacific will cool to 5.1% in both 2026 and 2027 from 5.4% last year, buoyed by still-resilient domestic demand. That assumes oil and gas prices peak in March, then normalize gradually. In that case, the crisis raises inflation across developing Asia and dampens gross domestic product growth in energy-importing economies this year, but does not materially undermine the region's resilience. But if tensions last through the third quarter, growth could slow to 4.7% this year, and to 4.8% the next. "All of those \[scenarios\] lead to downgrades in terms of growth and increases in terms of inflation," said Park. "We're just in this range of uncertainty." And it's not just energy prices that pose an economic threat for Asia. Gulf economies are major suppliers of fertilizers and related inputs, including urea and ammonia, much of which go through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which the vast majority of Middle East commodity exports are transported, ADB said. Fighting has effectively choked off traffic through the strait, sending prices of many commodities soaring, with implications for industries from electronics to farming. Higher fertilizer prices raise agricultural production costs, eventually feeding through to food prices, while semiconductor output could be affected by disruptions to shipments of helium, sulfur and petrochemical products used in chipmaking, the ADB said. The conflict also interrupts aviation links between Asia and Europe, which will weigh on tourism-dependent economies, the Manila-based bank added. Remittance inflows from the Middle East, too, could slow. Another drag comes from the toll the conflict is taking on financial markets. Steep equities selloffs can curb confidence and consumption, ADB said, and regional financial conditions have already tightened. A further deterioration would exacerbate debt issues in highly leveraged economies. While the impact will be felt differently across Asia, ADB thinks growth will slow in all subregions. Growth in advanced economies--a grouping including Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan--is expected to slow to 2.2% this year from 2.5% in 2025, before weakening to 1.8% in 2027. "Strong technology exports will only partly offset trade constraints and the fallout from the Middle East conflict," the ADB said. Growth in Japan is set to soften markedly as high energy prices dim market sentiment and the boost from export front-loading last year to get ahead of tariffs fades. By contrast, the bank sees growth picking in South Korea and staying strong in Taiwan thanks to sustained demand for semiconductors. The pace of economic expansion in developing Asia and the Pacific--a group comprising the ADB's 43 members--will remain stronger outside of China. In China, exports and investment in high-tech sectors will help offset subdued household consumption and property investment, but ADB still expects GDP growth to moderate in 2026 and 2027. Growth in India will ease but remain robust, bolstered by resilient consumption, recent trade agreements and structural reforms. Write to Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 09, 2026 20:14 ET (00:14 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相关股票 - [EPP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/EPP.US.md) - [GMF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GMF.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [经合组织警告：中东冲突拖累全球经济，央行将面临双重夹击！](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286888304.md) - [泰国一季度经济增速回升，官方预警中东冲突推高全年通胀风险](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286718089.md) - [中东战事推高油价 韩国推行第二轮现金补助缓解民生压力](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286692956.md) - [机构：日经指数年底前或触及 65,000 点](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286856093.md) - [雪佛龙有望实现七连涨，地缘政治与派息利好助推股价](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286956907.md)