--- title: "新兴市场 - 拉美股票和外汇因美国与伊朗关系缓和的预期而上涨" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282744114.md" description: "拉丁美洲的股票和货币上涨，因为对美国与伊朗谈判以缓解中东紧张局势的乐观情绪增加。拉美股票的 MSCI 指数上涨了 0.8%，而货币上涨了 0.6%。尽管出现反弹，国际货币基金组织将 2026 年新兴市场的增长预测下调至 3.9%，并指出如果冲突升级，将面临衰退风险。巴西的卢拉在选举民调中领先，哥伦比亚则撤回了对厄瓜多尔进口商品的关税计划。油价跌破 100 美元，负面影响了能源股票。总体而言，该地区的市场正在对地缘政治发展和经济预测作出反应" datetime: "2026-04-14T20:33:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282744114.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282744114.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282744114.md) --- # 新兴市场 - 拉美股票和外汇因美国与伊朗关系缓和的预期而上涨 \* Latam assets rebound as US-Iran talks expected to resume, easing oil concerns \* IMF lowers 2026 growth outlook for EM, warns of recession risk if conflict escalates \* Brazil election poll shows Lula ahead; Peru runoff set with Fujimori \* Colombia reverses plan for 100% tariffs on Ecuadorean imports (Updates with afternoon trading) By Johann M Cherian and Twesha Dikshit April 14 (Reuters) - Stocks and currencies across most Latin American markets rose on Tuesday with investors optimistic that the United States and Iran would continue negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East that has rattled global markets. MSCI's index tracking equities in the region rose 0.8%, trading at multi-year highs. A corresponding index tracking currencies added 0.6% as the safe-haven dollar slipped. Both indexes have recouped their losses since the start of the conflict with Iran in late February, with the currencies benchmark at a record high. "The peak EM FX sell-off did not look particularly dramatic compared to other sharp risk-off periods, while several currencies are already trading at levels stronger versus the USD than before the war started," JPMorgan analysts said in a note, while stating a preference for Latam and EMEA EM FX. Negotiating teams from Washington and Tehran could return to Islamabad this week to resume talks to end the war, sources told Reuters, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Oil prices fell over 1% and slipped below $100 a barrel. Oil-deficient Chile's peso appreciated 0.8%, the most among major economies in Latam, while Colombia's peso and Mexico's peso firmed 0.2% each. Energy companies' share prices fell, with Petrobras down 4.2%, Ecopetrol down 4.4% and Argentina's YPF down 2.2%, tracking weaker oil prices. GROWTH WORRIES LOOM Despite optimism over the prospects for peace talks, uncertainties remained regarding the economic repercussions of the month-long conflict. The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for global growth and warned that the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and if oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027. The fund lowered its 2026 growth forecast for emerging market and developing economies to 3.9% from its view of 4.2% in January, with commodity-importing countries expected to be hit the hardest due to higher energy and food costs. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, however, was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3% for 2026, helped by exporters such as Brazil, where higher oil prices provide some relief. Elections will be a pivotal event for Brazil later this year and a CNT/MDA poll showed that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff in the October general election. The local stock index edged up 0.4% and hit a record high. Meanwhile, Argentine bonds were marginally higher after a media report that the country will reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF on the second review of its $20 billion program as early as this week. Argentina's monthly inflation rate came in higher than analyst expectations, as markets keep a close eye on the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global economy. The benchmark stock index dropped 1.2%, while the local peso weakened 0.7%. Peru's sol slipped 0.5%. Elections over the weekend showed conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori will advance to a presidential runoff after she received 16.9% of the votes, with 74% of votes counted. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said his country would not impose 100% tariffs on imports from Ecuador, reversing an announcement made last week by the trade ministry. Local stocks added 0.6%. The U.S. issued a Venezuela-related general license that allows financial transactions involving certain Venezuelan banks and Venezuelan government individuals, according to documents posted to the U.S. Treasury Department's website. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 19:51 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging 1568.52 2.12 Markets MSCI LatAm 3363.15 0.79 Brazil Bovespa 198838.5 0.42 7 Mexico IPC 68957.47 -0.92 Chile IPSA 11321.42 1.69 Argentina MerVal 2956127. -1.19 86 Colombia COLCAP 2360.28 0.55 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.9903 0.12 Mexico peso 17.2557 0.26 Chile peso 885.88 0.79 Colombia 3578.56 0.24 peso Peru sol 3.3881 -0.54 Argentina 1,365.0 -0.74 peso (interbank) Argentina 1,390.0 0 peso (parallel) (Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Edmund Klamann) ### 相关股票 - [ILF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ILF.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [伊朗战事重塑预期，华尔街百元油价已成共识！但 “需求破坏” 与 “库存告急” 拉扯出天花板悬念](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287181161.md) - [伊媒：伊朗格什姆岛发现无人机后启动防空系统](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286811670.md) - [特朗普：协议达成前不会考虑放松对伊朗制裁](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287107523.md) - [伊朗驻法国大使：正酝酿建立霍尔木兹海峡 “永久收费站”！](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287241972.md) - [伊朗威胁称若美国发动攻击 将把报复行动范围扩大至中东之外](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287057688.md)