<p>河内——预计到 2026 年，越南经济将继续成为东南亚最强劲的表现者之一，但要维持这一势头，需要更快的改革以提高生产力、深化资本市场并加速向清洁能源的转型。</p>
<p>在最近一次会议的间隙，亚洲开发银行越南国家主任 Shantanu Chakraborty 向记者分享了对越南宏观经济前景和短期发展的见解。</p>
<p><strong>亚洲开发银行如何评估越南 2026 年的宏观经济前景？</strong></p>
<p>在早期稳定情景下，我们预计越南在 2026 年的增长约为 7.2%，2027 年约为 7%。</p>
<p>这些数字支撑了非常强劲的经济基本面、公共投资的强劲推动，以及去年该国采取的强有力的出口导向行动。</p>
<p>然而，维持如此高的增长将取决于该国是否能够改善增长质量，而不仅仅依赖低成本制造和外部需求。</p>
<p>为了维持这种高且有韧性的增长，该国需要专注于提高生产的生产力和效率，加强金融和资本市场，以确保投资者能够获得长期资本，最重要的是，关注能源安全并向绿色和清洁能源转型。</p>
<p><strong>亚洲开发银行如何看待越南在全球和区域供应链中的角色？</strong></p>
<p>越南已经深度融入全球价值链，特别是通过其制造业。几十年来，我们看到该国建立了强大的制造基础。</p>
<p>然而，国内增值水平仍然有限。</p>
<p>越南在低劳动力成本方面提供的优势并不是长期可持续的优势。该国需要增加其在供应链中的增值贡献。</p>
<p>为支持越南向更高增值增长的转型，确定了四个关键领域。</p>
<p>第一是改善商业环境，以吸引更高质量的投资者，并增强企业信心。</p>
<p>你需要一个更强的商业环境和高透明度的营商便利性，以便优质投资者能够进入。</p>
<p>第二是更大程度地获得长期融资。你需要更强的资本市场深化，包括股权和债务，这也需要监管行动。</p>
<p>第三是更好的基础设施，特别是越南在区域供应链中竞争投资时。尽管通过公共投资和私人参与有所改善，但在交通、物流和能源方面仍需做更多工作。</p>
<p>最后一个要求是更高技能的劳动力。随着国家寻求提升价值链，熟练劳动力的可用性非常重要，尤其是政府对人工智能、金融科技和绿色增长的强烈关注。</p>
<p><strong>越南如何应对能源转型和绿色增长？有哪些挑战减缓了能源转型？</strong></p>
<p>作为化石燃料的主要消费国，越南在东南亚扮演着非常重要的角色，并已采取正确步骤向可持续和绿色增长模式转型。</p>
<p>绿色增长是亚洲开发银行与越南合作的核心支柱之一，越南承诺到 2050 年实现净零排放，并参与区域能源倡议。</p>
<p>我们看到在可融资项目数量方面的早期成功迹象。</p>
<p>然而，政策不确定性、基础设施瓶颈和有限融资仍然是三大障碍。</p>
<p>例如，越南南部的可再生能源需要强大的输电和配电网络，以将电力输送到该国北部的主要需求中心。</p>
<p>在该国之前的电力发展计划下，可再生能源的投资在早期繁荣后也有所放缓。</p>
<p>我们看到清洁能源发电领域的投资热潮，但这似乎又稍微放缓，我们需要重新激活清洁能源领域的投资。</p>
<p>为了加快进展，同时保持电价可负担，我们需要更强的规划和更可预测的监管环境。我们需要更大程度地动员私人投资。</p>
<p>能源多样化将是必不可少的。应更加关注海上风能和电池储能系统。</p>
<p><strong>越南如何动员更多私人投资用于基础设施和气候项目？</strong></p>
<p>改善项目准备和减少延误将是至关重要的。</p>
<p>我们在公共和私营部门都看到，尽管有许多项目被宣布并向前推进，但在确保可融资性和最佳实践方面，风险分担和结构设计方面双方都存在不足。</p>
<p>所以我会说，为了吸引更多资本，重点应该放在加快项目准备上。</p>
<p><strong>哪些改革是改善生产力和增长质量最紧迫的？</strong></p>
<p>最近的政策变化已经在改善商业环境和治理方面取得了进展。</p>
<p>我们有第 68 号决议，将私营部门置于国家增长的中心，并进行简化官方发展援助程序的改革。</p>
<p>正在进行的行政重组和权力下放被视为影响决策和项目实施的因素。</p>
<p>还需要加强人力资本并扩大公私合营（PPP）。</p>
<p>公私合营是另一个有显著进一步工作的领域，特别是在交通和能源等基础设施领域。</p>
<p>此外，还需要增加在人工智能、科学与技术、生物技术和金融科技等领域培训人员的能力。</p>
<p>建立国际金融中心（IFC）是朝着这个方向迈出的非常积极的一步，因为它有助于创造一个能够吸引长期私人资本的生态系统。 — BIZHUB/VNS</p>

XFVT

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>越南经济预计在 2026 年增长 7.2%，这得益于强劲的公共投资和以出口为导向的举措。然而，要维持这一增长，需要进行改革以提高生产力、深化资本市场，并向更清洁的能源转型。关键的改进领域包括吸引优质投资者、增加长期融资的可获得性、改善基础设施以及培养高素质劳动力。越南还专注于绿色增长，目标是在 2050 年前实现净零排放，但面临政策不确定性和基础设施瓶颈等挑战。动员私人投资和加快项目准备对未来的增长至关重要</p>

<p>HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam's economy is expected to remain one of Southeast Asia's strongest performers in 2026, but sustaining that momentum will require faster reforms to raise productivity, deepen capital markets and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>河内——预计到 2026 年，越南经济将继续成为东南亚最强劲的表现者之一，但要维持这一势头，需要更快的改革以提高生产力、深化资本市场并加速向清洁能源的转型。</p>
</div><p>Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a recent conference, Shantanu Chakraborty, country director at Asian Development Bank Vietnam, shared insights into Việt Nam's macroeconomic prospects and development in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近一次会议的间隙，亚洲开发银行越南国家主任 Shantanu Chakraborty 向记者分享了对越南宏观经济前景和短期发展的见解。</p>
</div><p><strong>How does ADB assess Việt Nam's macroeconomic outlook for 2026?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚洲开发银行如何评估越南 2026 年的宏观经济前景？</strong></p>
</div><p>Under the early stabilisation scenario, we are projecting about 7.2 per cent growth for Việt Nam in 2026 and about 7 per cent for 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早期稳定情景下，我们预计越南在 2026 年的增长约为 7.2%，2027 年约为 7%。</p>
</div><p>These figures underpin the very strong economic fundamentals, the strong boost in public investment and also essentially the strong export-orientated action taken by the country last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数字支撑了非常强劲的经济基本面、公共投资的强劲推动，以及去年该国采取的强有力的出口导向行动。</p>
</div><p>However, maintaining such high growth will depend on whether the country can improve the quality of its growth rather than rely solely on low-cost manufacturing and external demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，维持如此高的增长将取决于该国是否能够改善增长质量，而不仅仅依赖低成本制造和外部需求。</p>
</div><p>To sustain this high and resilient growth, the country needs to focus on raising productivity and efficiency of its production, strengthening the financial and capital markets to ensure access by investors to long-term capital and, most importantly, focusing on energy security and transitioning towards green and clean energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了维持这种高且有韧性的增长，该国需要专注于提高生产的生产力和效率，加强金融和资本市场，以确保投资者能够获得长期资本，最重要的是，关注能源安全并向绿色和清洁能源转型。</p>
</div><p><strong>How does ADB view Việt Nam's role in global and regional supply chains?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚洲开发银行如何看待越南在全球和区域供应链中的角色？</strong></p>
</div><p>Việt Nam is already deeply integrated into global value chains, particularly through its manufacturing sector. We have seen for decades how the country has built up its strong manufacturing base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南已经深度融入全球价值链，特别是通过其制造业。几十年来，我们看到该国建立了强大的制造基础。</p>
</div><p>However, the level of domestic value addition remains limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，国内增值水平仍然有限。</p>
</div><p>The advantage that Việt Nam has provided in terms of low labour costs is not a long-term sustainable advantage. The country needs to increase its value-added contribution within supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南在低劳动力成本方面提供的优势并不是长期可持续的优势。该国需要增加其在供应链中的增值贡献。</p>
</div><p>Four key areas were identified to support Việt Nam's transition to higher value-added growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为支持越南向更高增值增长的转型，确定了四个关键领域。</p>
</div><p>The first is improving the business environment to attract higher-quality investors and give businesses more confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一是改善商业环境，以吸引更高质量的投资者，并增强企业信心。</p>
</div><p>You need a much stronger business-enabling environment and a high degree of transparency in the ease of doing business so that quality investors can come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你需要一个更强的商业环境和高透明度的营商便利性，以便优质投资者能够进入。</p>
</div><p>The second is greater access to long-term financing. You need a stronger deepening of the capital markets, both equity and debt, and that also requires regulatory action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二是更大程度地获得长期融资。你需要更强的资本市场深化，包括股权和债务，这也需要监管行动。</p>
</div><p>The third is better infrastructure, especially as Việt Nam competes for investment in regional supply chains. Despite improvements through public investment and private participation, more remains to be done in transport, logistics and energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三是更好的基础设施，特别是越南在区域供应链中竞争投资时。尽管通过公共投资和私人参与有所改善，但在交通、物流和能源方面仍需做更多工作。</p>
</div><p>The final requirement is a more skilled workforce. The availability of skilled labour is very important as the country seeks to move up the value chain, especially as there is strong government focus on AI, fintech and green growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后一个要求是更高技能的劳动力。随着国家寻求提升价值链，熟练劳动力的可用性非常重要，尤其是政府对人工智能、金融科技和绿色增长的强烈关注。</p>
</div><p><strong>How is Việt Nam approaching energy transition and green growth? And what challenges are slowing the energy transition?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>越南如何应对能源转型和绿色增长？有哪些挑战减缓了能源转型？</strong></p>
</div><p>As a major consumer of fossil fuels, Việt Nam plays a very important role in Southeast Asia and has been taking the right steps to transition towards a sustainable and green growth model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为化石燃料的主要消费国，越南在东南亚扮演着非常重要的角色，并已采取正确步骤向可持续和绿色增长模式转型。</p>
</div><p>Green growth is a central pillar of ADB's engagement with Việt Nam, alongside the country's commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050 and participation in regional energy initiatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>绿色增长是亚洲开发银行与越南合作的核心支柱之一，越南承诺到 2050 年实现净零排放，并参与区域能源倡议。</p>
</div><p>We are seeing early signs of success in terms of the number of projects that are becoming financeable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们看到在可融资项目数量方面的早期成功迹象。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, policy uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and limited financing remain the three biggest barriers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，政策不确定性、基础设施瓶颈和有限融资仍然是三大障碍。</p>
</div><p>For example, renewable energy in the southern part of Việt Nam requires robust transmission and distribution networks to move electricity to the country's main demand centres in the north.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，越南南部的可再生能源需要强大的输电和配电网络，以将电力输送到该国北部的主要需求中心。</p>
</div><p>Investment in renewable energy has also slowed after an earlier boom under the country's previous power development plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在该国之前的电力发展计划下，可再生能源的投资在早期繁荣后也有所放缓。</p>
</div><p>We saw a flurry of investments in the clean energy generation space, but that again seems to have slowed slightly and we need to rejuvenate investment in the clean energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们看到清洁能源发电领域的投资热潮，但这似乎又稍微放缓，我们需要重新激活清洁能源领域的投资。</p>
</div><p>To accelerate progress while keeping electricity affordable, we need stronger planning and a more predictable regulatory environment. We need greater mobilisation of private investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了加快进展，同时保持电价可负担，我们需要更强的规划和更可预测的监管环境。我们需要更大程度地动员私人投资。</p>
</div><p>Energy diversification will be essential. There should be more focus on offshore wind and battery energy storage systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源多样化将是必不可少的。应更加关注海上风能和电池储能系统。</p>
</div><p><strong>How can Việt Nam mobilise more private investment for infrastructure and climate projects?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>越南如何动员更多私人投资用于基础设施和气候项目？</strong></p>
</div><p>Improving project preparation and reducing delays will be essential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>改善项目准备和减少延误将是至关重要的。</p>
</div><p>We have seen on both the public and private sector sides that while there are many projects being announced and many moving forward, when it comes to ensuring bankability and best-in-class practices in terms of risk-sharing and structuring, there are shortcomings on both sides.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们在公共和私营部门都看到，尽管有许多项目被宣布并向前推进，但在确保可融资性和最佳实践方面，风险分担和结构设计方面双方都存在不足。</p>
</div><p>So I would say that, to attract more capital, the focus should be on expediting project preparation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以我会说，为了吸引更多资本，重点应该放在加快项目准备上。</p>
</div><p><strong>What reforms are most urgent to improve productivity and growth quality?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>哪些改革是改善生产力和增长质量最紧迫的？</strong></p>
</div><p>Recent policy changes have already made progress in improving the business environment and governance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的政策变化已经在改善商业环境和治理方面取得了进展。</p>
</div><p>We had Resolution 68, which put the private sector at the centre of the country's growth, along with reforms to streamline official development assistance procedures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们有第 68 号决议，将私营部门置于国家增长的中心，并进行简化官方发展援助程序的改革。</p>
</div><p>Ongoing administrative restructuring and decentralisation are seen as factors affecting decision-making and project implementation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正在进行的行政重组和权力下放被视为影响决策和项目实施的因素。</p>
</div><p>There is also a need to strengthen human capital and expand public-private partnerships (PPP).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还需要加强人力资本并扩大公私合营（PPP）。</p>
</div><p>PPP is another area where there is significant scope for further work, particularly in infrastructure sectors such as transport and energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公私合营是另一个有显著进一步工作的领域，特别是在交通和能源等基础设施领域。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, additional capacity is needed to train people in areas such as AI, science and technology, biotech and fintech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，还需要增加在人工智能、科学与技术、生物技术和金融科技等领域培训人员的能力。</p>
</div><p>The setting up of an international financial centre (IFC) is a very positive step in that direction because it helps create an ecosystem that can attract long-term private capital. — BIZHUB/VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建立国际金融中心（IFC）是朝着这个方向迈出的非常积极的一步，因为它有助于创造一个能够吸引长期私人资本的生态系统。 — BIZHUB/VNS</p>
</div>

Việt Nam sustains growth with focus on productivity, energy transition: ADB

- 预计越南到 2026 年将增长约 7.2%，需加快改革提升生产力。  
- 亚洲开发银行建议需要更好的商业环境、融资和基础设施。  
- 能源转型挑战包括政策不确定性和融资限制，需动员私人投资。

亚洲开发银行表示，越南通过专注于提高生产力和进行能源转型来保持经济增长