<p>河内——越南已正式满足所有要求，从前沿市场重新分类为次级新兴市场，升级将于 9 月的 FTSE Russell 半年度审查开始生效，这标志着该国资本市场发展的重要里程碑。</p>
<p>在审查结果公布后，国家证券委员会（SSC）副主席阮黄海表示，越南股票将分四个阶段纳入 FTSE 指数，第一阶段将于 2026 年 9 月开始，最后阶段将在 2027 年 9 月结束。</p>
<p>越南在指数中的权重预计约为 0.04%，相当于约 16 亿美元的可投资资本来自被动基金，他指出，被动资金流动只是整体情况的一部分。</p>
<p>彭博社汇编的数据表明，大多数市场在升级后历史上都记录了外资流入的强劲增长，无论分类是基于 FTSE 还是 MSCI 标准。统计数据显示，资本流入通常比升级前的平均水平增加五到七倍。</p>
<p>中国是一个显著的案例。其 A 股于 2018 年正式纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数，恰逢该国在近十年中增长最缓慢的时期之一，正值中美贸易战期间。</p>
<p>当年，外国投资者撤回超过 110 亿美元，随后在次年以超过 1320 亿美元的净流入回归。</p>
<p>对于越南，预测也指向了巨大的流入潜力。</p>
<p>世界银行在 2024 年估计，成功升级可能吸引多达 250 亿美元的新资本。</p>
<p>与此同时，国际经验表明，流动性改善可能是显著的。例如，沙特阿拉伯在升级为新兴市场地位时，交易价值激增超过 20 倍，活动在此后继续上升。</p>
<p>然而，升级后的市场表现仍然取决于更广泛的条件。根据 BIDV 证券公司的分析师，增长的可持续性将取决于宏观经济因素，如货币和财政政策、每股收益的扩展以及国内改革的进展。</p>
<p>如果升级路线图完成，越南的市场流动性预计将显著改善，2026-2030 年期间，平均交易价值预计将在 13 亿到 21 亿美元之间。</p>
<p>重新分类还预计将引发资本配置的结构性变化。</p>
<p>随着市场在指数类别之间移动，资本再平衡通常会为旧指数中剩余成分创造买入压力，而为新纳入升级指数的股票创造卖出压力。</p>
<p>例如，当一个国家退出前沿指数时，其前期权重为其他成分的增长留出了空间，而进入新兴市场指数的股票可能最初面临与投资组合调整相关的卖出压力。</p>
<p>然而，历史数据并不保证统一的上升轨迹。</p>
<p>VPBank 证券的分析师指出，纳入 FTSE 新兴市场指数并不一定确保持续增长，因为市场趋势更受宏观经济动态的影响。</p>
<p>“升级应被视为一个支持因素和资本流入的重要催化剂，而宏观基本面将仍然是市场方向的决定性驱动因素，” 该公司表示。</p>
<p>同样，KB 证券越南预计重新分类将激活来自被动指数跟踪基金和主动全球投资者的大规模资本轮换进入越南。</p>
<p>根据与 FTSE Russell 一致的情景分析，潜在流入可能在 30 亿到 90 亿美元之间，对应于 FTSE 新兴市场全覆盖指数中估计的权重为 0.3% 到 1.1%。</p>
<p>另一方面，越南可能面临来自前沿基金的高达约 10 亿美元的资金流出。</p>
<p>尽管如此，这种卖出压力相对于新兴市场配置的预期需求被认为是温和的，有助于资产重新估值，并在正式升级时间表之前增强投资者信心。</p>
<p>然而，短期市场动态仍然受周期性模式的影响。</p>
<p>根据 SSI 研究，投资者情绪可能在四月下半月减弱，反映出季节性趋势。</p>
<p>历史上，四月通常是股市较为谨慎的月份，上涨股票的平均比例约为 47.7%，是全年第二低的月份，仅次于十月。</p>
<p>这种季节性下滑通常与市场在年度股东大会后已提前定价商业计划有关，同时伴随着第一季度财报季的获利了结。</p>
<p>由于高油价和利率对盈利能力的影响，加上 2025 年同一时期母公司股东的净利润同比增长 33.5% 的高比较基数，第二季度盈利增长放缓的预期可能会带来额外压力。</p>
<p>月末的长假可能进一步抑制投资者参与，缩小流动性，可能导致短期波动。——BIZHUB/VNS</p>

db x-trackers 富时越南指数ETF

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

VNAM

<p>越南已正式满足从前沿市场升级为次级新兴市场的标准，升级将于 9 月的 FTSE Russell 评估生效。预计这一升级将吸引大量外资流入，估计到 2024 年可能吸引高达 250 亿美元的资金。然而，升级后的市场表现将取决于宏观经济因素，包括货币政策和国内改革。分析师警告，尽管升级是一个积极的催化剂，但持续增长将受到更广泛经济条件的影响。短期市场动态也可能因季节性趋势和获利了结而面临挑战</p>

<p>HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam has officially met all requirements to be reclassified from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, with the upgrade set to take effect starting with the FTSE Russell semi-annual review in September, marking a significant milestone in the country's capital market development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>河内——越南已正式满足所有要求，从前沿市场重新分类为次级新兴市场，升级将于 9 月的 FTSE Russell 半年度审查开始生效，这标志着该国资本市场发展的重要里程碑。</p>
</div><p>After the review results were announced, Vice Chairman of the State Securities Commission (SSC) Bùi Hoàng Hải said Vietnamese stocks would be added to FTSE indices in four phases, starting in September 2026 and concluding in September 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在审查结果公布后，国家证券委员会（SSC）副主席阮黄海表示，越南股票将分四个阶段纳入 FTSE 指数，第一阶段将于 2026 年 9 月开始，最后阶段将在 2027 年 9 月结束。</p>
</div><p>The weighting of Việt Nam in the index is estimated at around 0.04 per cent, equivalent to approximately US$1.6 billion in investable capital from passive funds, he said, noting that passive flows represent only part of the picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南在指数中的权重预计约为 0.04%，相当于约 16 亿美元的可投资资本来自被动基金，他指出，被动资金流动只是整体情况的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that most markets historically recorded strong growth in foreign capital inflows following an upgrade, regardless of whether the classification was based on FTSE or MSCI criteria. Statistics indicate that capital inflows typically increase five to seven times compared to the pre-upgrade average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博社汇编的数据表明，大多数市场在升级后历史上都记录了外资流入的强劲增长，无论分类是基于 FTSE 还是 MSCI 标准。统计数据显示，资本流入通常比升级前的平均水平增加五到七倍。</p>
</div><p>China provides a notable case. Its A-shares were officially included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2018, coinciding with one of the country's slowest growth periods in nearly a decade amid the US-China trade war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国是一个显著的案例。其 A 股于 2018 年正式纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数，恰逢该国在近十年中增长最缓慢的时期之一，正值中美贸易战期间。</p>
</div><p>Foreign investors withdrew more than $11 billion that year, before returning with net inflows exceeding $132 billion the following year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当年，外国投资者撤回超过 110 亿美元，随后在次年以超过 1320 亿美元的净流入回归。</p>
</div><p>For Việt Nam, projections have also pointed to substantial inflow potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于越南，预测也指向了巨大的流入潜力。</p>
</div><p>The World Bank estimated in 2024 that a successful upgrade could attract up to $25 billion in new capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界银行在 2024 年估计，成功升级可能吸引多达 250 亿美元的新资本。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, international experience suggests liquidity improvements can be significant. Saudi Arabia, for instance, saw trading value surge more than 20-fold around the time of its upgrade to emerging market status, with activity continuing to rise thereafter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，国际经验表明，流动性改善可能是显著的。例如，沙特阿拉伯在升级为新兴市场地位时，交易价值激增超过 20 倍，活动在此后继续上升。</p>
</div><p>However, post-upgrade market performance remains contingent on broader conditions. According to analysts at BIDV Securities Company, the sustainability of growth will depend on macroeconomic factors, such as monetary and fiscal policy, earnings per share expansion and the pace of domestic reforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，升级后的市场表现仍然取决于更广泛的条件。根据 BIDV 证券公司的分析师，增长的可持续性将取决于宏观经济因素，如货币和财政政策、每股收益的扩展以及国内改革的进展。</p>
</div><p>Việt Nam's market liquidity is projected to improve markedly if the upgrade roadmap is completed, with average trading value expected to reach between $1.3 billion and $2.1 billion per session during the 2026-2030 period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果升级路线图完成，越南的市场流动性预计将显著改善，2026-2030 年期间，平均交易价值预计将在 13 亿到 21 亿美元之间。</p>
</div><p>The reclassification is also expected to trigger a structural shift in capital allocation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重新分类还预计将引发资本配置的结构性变化。</p>
</div><p>As markets move between index categories, capital rebalancing often creates buying pressure for remaining constituents in the old index and selling pressure for stocks newly added to the upgraded index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着市场在指数类别之间移动，资本再平衡通常会为旧指数中剩余成分创造买入压力，而为新纳入升级指数的股票创造卖出压力。</p>
</div><p>For example, when a country exits a frontier index, its former weight leaves room for other constituents to grow, while stocks entering emerging market indices may initially face portfolio adjustment-related selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，当一个国家退出前沿指数时，其前期权重为其他成分的增长留出了空间，而进入新兴市场指数的股票可能最初面临与投资组合调整相关的卖出压力。</p>
</div><p>Historical data, however, does not guarantee a uniform upward trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，历史数据并不保证统一的上升轨迹。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at VPBank Securities noted that inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Markets Index does not necessarily ensure sustained growth, as market trends are more heavily influenced by macroeconomic dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VPBank 证券的分析师指出，纳入 FTSE 新兴市场指数并不一定确保持续增长，因为市场趋势更受宏观经济动态的影响。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The upgrade should be viewed as a supportive factor and an important catalyst for capital inflows, while macro fundamentals will remain the decisive driver of market direction,&#34; the firm said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“升级应被视为一个支持因素和资本流入的重要催化剂，而宏观基本面将仍然是市场方向的决定性驱动因素，” 该公司表示。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, KB Securities Vietnam expects the reclassification to activate large-scale capital rotation from both passive index-tracking funds and active global investors into Việt Nam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，KB 证券越南预计重新分类将激活来自被动指数跟踪基金和主动全球投资者的大规模资本轮换进入越南。</p>
</div><p>Based on scenario analyses aligned with FTSE Russell, potential inflows could range from $3-9 billion, corresponding to an estimated weighting of 0.3 per cent to 1.1 per cent in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据与 FTSE Russell 一致的情景分析，潜在流入可能在 30 亿到 90 亿美元之间，对应于 FTSE 新兴市场全覆盖指数中估计的权重为 0.3% 到 1.1%。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, Việt Nam could face outflows of up to around $1 billion from frontier-focused funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，越南可能面临来自前沿基金的高达约 10 亿美元的资金流出。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, this selling pressure is considered modest relative to the expected demand from emerging market allocations, contributing to asset revaluation and reinforcing investor confidence ahead of the formal upgrade timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这种卖出压力相对于新兴市场配置的预期需求被认为是温和的，有助于资产重新估值，并在正式升级时间表之前增强投资者信心。</p>
</div><p>Short-term market dynamics, however, remain subject to cyclical patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，短期市场动态仍然受周期性模式的影响。</p>
</div><p>According to SSI Research, investor sentiment may soften in the latter half of April, reflecting seasonal trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 SSI 研究，投资者情绪可能在四月下半月减弱，反映出季节性趋势。</p>
</div><p>Historically, April has been one of the more cautious months for equities, with the average proportion of advancing stocks at around 47.7 per cent, the second lowest of the year after October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，四月通常是股市较为谨慎的月份，上涨股票的平均比例约为 47.7%，是全年第二低的月份，仅次于十月。</p>
</div><p>This seasonal dip is often linked to the market having already priced in business plans following annual general meetings, alongside profit-taking during the first quarter earnings season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种季节性下滑通常与市场在年度股东大会后已提前定价商业计划有关，同时伴随着第一季度财报季的获利了结。</p>
</div><p>Additional pressures may emerge from expectations of slower earnings growth in the second quarter, as elevated fuel prices and interest rates weigh on profitability, coupled with a high comparison base from the same period in 2025, when net profit after tax attributable to parent company shareholders rose by 33.5 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于高油价和利率对盈利能力的影响，加上 2025 年同一时期母公司股东的净利润同比增长 33.5% 的高比较基数，第二季度盈利增长放缓的预期可能会带来额外压力。</p>
</div><p>Extended public holidays toward the end of the month may further dampen investor participation and narrow liquidity, potentially leading to short-term volatility. — BIZHUB/VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>月末的长假可能进一步抑制投资者参与，缩小流动性，可能导致短期波动。——BIZHUB/VNS</p>
</div>

宏观经济将在升级后对股市发挥关键作用