--- title: "由于霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续，印度卢比可能会承受压力" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283260047.md" description: "印度卢比在四月份对美元升值了 2.1%，但由于高企的原油价格和霍尔木兹海峡的持续封锁，预计将面临贬值压力。在三月份下跌 4% 后，卢比趋于稳定，但预计本周将开盘在 93 左右。分析师预测，未来几周卢比将在 92 到 93.5 之间波动，受外资流出和经常账户赤字扩大影响。经济学家预测，到 2026-27 年，当前账户赤字将达到 GDP 的 1.6%，并可能出现 250 亿美元的国际收支赤字" datetime: "2026-04-19T02:58:56.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283260047.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283260047.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283260047.md) --- # 由于霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续，印度卢比可能会承受压力 The rupee, which has appreciated 2.1 per cent against the dollar so far in April, is likely to face depreciation pressure this week, tracking elevated crude oil prices, with efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz yet to yield results.   After depreciating by more than 4 per cent in March — prompting regulatory measures such as capping banks’ open positions in the onshore derivatives market and opening a dollar window for oil companies — the currency stabilised.   Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was at a standstill on Sunday, news agency Reuters reported, after Iran reasserted control over the strategic waterway, a key route for global energy supply, days before a fragile ceasefire with the US was set to expire.   “As things stand, the rupee is expected to open around or slightly below 93 on Monday, largely confined within the 92-93 range,” said V R C Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank.    The Indian unit closed at 92.93 per dollar on Friday, up 0.3 per cent from the previous close of 93.2 per dollar.   “We expect emerging-market (EM) currencies to underperform amid dollar weakness and the rupee to underperform among EM currencies. We see a 92-93.5 range for the rupee over the next six weeks,” IFA Global said in a report.   Apart from elevated oil prices, foreign fund outflows and a widening current account deficit (CAD) will exert pressure on the Indian unit. “Any short-term movement will remain sensitive to overnight developments, as even a single headline or X post can shift sentiment. Unless we see a meaningful reversal in capital flows and stronger underlying fundamentals, further sustained appreciation of the rupee appears unlikely in the near term,” Reddy said.   Economists have projected CAD to widen to 1.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026–27, with a likely balance of payments deficit of $25 billion. ### 相关股票 - [NFTY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NFTY.US.md) - [INDY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/INDY.US.md) - [INDH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/INDH.US.md) - [IND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IND.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/INDA.US.md) - [TRI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TRI.US.md) - [TMZ.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TMZ.AU.md) - [A50.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/A50.SG.md) - [BSVN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BSVN.US.md) - [VBNK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VBNK.US.md) - [DGZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DGZ.US.md) - [IFRA.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IFRA.AU.md) - [GLBE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GLBE.US.md) - [08487.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/08487.HK.md) - [NA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NA.US.md) - [XNCR.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XNCR.US.md) - [6962.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/6962.JP.md) - [CXAI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CXAI.US.md) - [CXAIW.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CXAIW.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [油价上涨冲击企业盈利，汇丰、摩根大通接连下调印度股市评级](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283954228.md) - [卢比为何越跌越快？问题不只是中东战火，更在印度经济自身](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284199019.md) - [惠誉警告美国信贷评级正面临日益扩大赤字挑战](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284847923.md) - [摩根大通 CEO 戴蒙警告债务危机迟早到来 赤字与通胀或加剧风险](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284458360.md) - [美国汽油价格触及四年高点](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284580217.md)