<p>报告指出，日本央行可能会在下周的四月会议上暂停加息，因为中东冲突带来的不确定性使得政策制定者不愿意急于做出决定。消息人士称，央行倾向于维持政策不变，以评估冲突带来的影响程度。</p>
<p>尽管如此，他们指出，最终决定可能会非常接近，仍然取决于未来一周美伊和平谈判的进展。</p>
<p>其中一位消息人士表示，由于市场已经消化了本月加息的可能性，因此日本央行不太可能采取行动。作为背景，目前交易员仅预计本月加息的概率约为 15%。然而，到六月会议时，这一概率会大幅回升至约 57%。</p>
<p>消息人士还表示，即使央行这次选择不加息，他们仍可能希望发出信号，表明在通胀压力加大的情况下，他们准备在六月采取行动。</p>
<p>春季工资谈判的结果已经是一个积极因素，但飙升的油价将进一步加大日本经济的价格压力。然而，通胀的组合是日本央行需要关注的。他们之前一直相当坚持不想对成本推动型通胀做出过度反应，而这正是经济在油价飙升的情况下将会经历的情况。</p>

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<p>日本银行预计将在四月份维持货币政策不变，原因是中东冲突带来的不确定性。消息人士表示，中央银行对加息持谨慎态度，目前市场对加息的概率约为 15%，到六月份这一概率将增加到 57%。尽管油价上涨可能带来通胀压力，但日本银行旨在避免对成本推动型通胀做出过于强烈的反应。最终决定将取决于美伊和平谈判的进展以及春季工资谈判的结果</p>

<p>The report says that the BOJ is likely to hold off from raising interest rates in April next week, as heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict continues to put policymakers off from wanting to rush a decision. The sources claim that the central bank is leaning towards keeping policy unchanged in order to size up the magnitude of the fallout from the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，日本央行可能会在下周的四月会议上暂停加息，因为中东冲突带来的不确定性使得政策制定者不愿意急于做出决定。消息人士称，央行倾向于维持政策不变，以评估冲突带来的影响程度。</p>
</div><p>That being said, they note that the final decision may be a close call and is still dependent on what becomes of US-Iran peace talks in the week ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，他们指出，最终决定可能会非常接近，仍然取决于未来一周美伊和平谈判的进展。</p>
</div><p>One of the sources did say that the BOJ is not likely to act given how markets have already priced out chances of a rate hike for this month. For some context, traders are just pricing in ~15% odds of a rate hike as of today. However, those odds jump do jump back up quite a bit to ~57% by the time we get to the June meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一位消息人士表示，由于市场已经消化了本月加息的可能性，因此日本央行不太可能采取行动。作为背景，目前交易员仅预计本月加息的概率约为 15%。然而，到六月会议时，这一概率会大幅回升至约 57%。</p>
</div><p>The sources also say that even if the central bank were to hold off on rates hikes this time around, they might still want to signal that they are ready to act as soon as June in the wake of mounting inflation pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消息人士还表示，即使央行这次选择不加息，他们仍可能希望发出信号，表明在通胀压力加大的情况下，他们准备在六月采取行动。</p>
</div><p>The outcome of the spring wage negotiations was already a positive factor but surging oil prices will just add to mounting price pressures for the Japanese economy. However, the mix of inflation is something that the BOJ will have to be mindful of. They have previously been rather adamant to not want to react too much to cost-push inflation, which is precisely what the economy will experience amid surging oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>春季工资谈判的结果已经是一个积极因素，但飙升的油价将进一步加大日本经济的价格压力。然而，通胀的组合是日本央行需要关注的。他们之前一直相当坚持不想对成本推动型通胀做出过度反应，而这正是经济在油价飙升的情况下将会经历的情况。</p>
</div>

BOJ likely to keep monetary policy unchanged in April - report

- 日本央行可能在四月会议上暂停加息，受中东冲突影响。  
- 消息人士称，政策制定者倾向于评估冲突影响，决定取决于美伊谈判进展。  
- 尽管市场已消化加息可能性，但通胀压力可能促使央行在六月采取行动。

报告指出，日本央行可能在四月份保持货币政策不变