--- title: "Bernstein 在给总理的公开信中指出了印度经济增长的结构性风险" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283834635.md" description: "全球经纪公司 Bernstein 对印度的增长结构性风险表示担忧，警告称如果不解决关键政策问题，该国可能会表现不佳。在给总理的公开信中，Bernstein 强调了基础设施、创新和就业方面的缺口，特别是在人工智能进步的背景下。报告警告不要假设近期的经济增长将持续，并批评不断上升的福利支出可能会成为长期增长的障碍。Bernstein 强调需要采取果断的政策行动，以使印度的雄心与必要的投资相一致，特别是在研发方面，这一领域的投入与全球标准相比仍然较低" datetime: "2026-04-23T04:38:17.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283834635.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283834635.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283834635.md) --- # Bernstein 在给总理的公开信中指出了印度经济增长的结构性风险 Global brokerage Bernstein has flagged a series of structural risks to India’s growth trajectory, cautioning that the country could “under-deliver on its potential” unless key policy bottlenecks are addressed. The India strategy note — styled as an ‘open letter to the Prime Minister’ — marks a reprise of a similar exercise undertaken by the brokerage in 2019, when it had outlined six priorities for the government following the general elections. “That was a different world: pre-Covid, pre-Gen AI, with trade integration largely intact and de-globalisation still an academic concern,” said Bernstein strategists Venugopal Garre and Nikhil Arela, adding that “many of the underlying constraints that have historically limited India’s rise remain unresolved”. While the format is uncommon, market participants said such notes are typically aimed at investors rather than policymakers. “This is essentially a strategy note packaged differently. Brokerages use such formats to frame long-term risks and opportunities for global investors,” said a Mumbai-based market strategist. Bernstein acknowledged that India has made the “correct choice” by focusing on capital expenditure, which has supported macro stability and earnings growth. However, it warned against extrapolating recent gains. “If the last six years demonstrate what India can do when policy is aligned, they also carry a risk: the temptation to extrapolate recent success,” the report said. The brokerage highlighted gaps in infrastructure, innovation capacity, and preparedness for emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI). A central concern flagged in the report is employment, especially in the context of rapid advances in AI. “Gen AI now challenges that template… A meaningful share of the roles that lifted this cohort are directly exposed to automation,” it said. India risks becoming “a user of these technologies without capturing a commensurate share of the upside,” the brokerage warned. Market experts said this reflects a growing concern among global investors, given the sharp sell-off in domestic IT companies seen this year. Bernstein has struck a cautious note on manufacturing, saying India’s gains from the China+1 shift have been limited and employment remains concentrated in low-productivity segments. “India’s limited gains from the China+1 shift highlight the time required to build capabilities, but also the cost of delayed action. Supply chains remain shallow, talent in advanced manufacturing is constrained, and execution timelines are often slower than competing economies,” wrote Garre and Arela. On agriculture, it pointed to structural inefficiencies, noting that nearly half the workforce depends on a sector contributing a much smaller share to GDP, and called for renewed reforms and higher investment in irrigation and storage. Bernstein also flagged rising welfare spending as a potential drag on long-term growth. “A rupee locked into broad, politically timed cash schemes is a rupee not building roads… or R&D,” it said. While acknowledging that cash transfers support consumption, the report warned that a sustained shift towards such schemes could “lock” the economy into a “low-productivity equilibrium, where a rising share of taxes funds consumption today rather than capabilities for tomorrow.” Market participants said this reflects a broader debate on fiscal priorities around revenue spending crowding out investment-led growth, especially at the state level. Bernstein said India’s ambitions continue to outpace its investments, with R&D spending at around 0.6–0.7 per cent of GDP, well below global benchmarks. “Innovation ecosystems require sustained capital, high-quality talent, and institutional rigour,” the brokerage said. Across sectors — from energy and transport to R&D and taxation — the brokerage called for more decisive policy action, arguing that gradualism may no longer suffice. Market observers noted that the letter format allows the brokerage to present a candid, top-down critique of India’s growth model while engaging a global investor audience. “This is less about advising the government and more about signalling to investors where the risks are,” said a senior market expert. After being among the most favoured markets in the emerging-market pack in 2024, India has recently slipped down the pecking order for foreign brokerages, which are turning more constructive on markets such as South Korea and Taiwan — seen as key beneficiaries of the AI supply chain — and offering relatively more attractive valuations. “India does not lack capital, talent, or ambition. What it requires now is a sharper willingness to take difficult decisions early,” the report said. It added that the “window to act is still open, but it is narrowing.” > **Reality Check** > > · India risks “under-delivering on its potential” if longstanding constraints remain unaddressed. > > · AI could disrupt India’s employment engine; country at risk of becoming a consumer rather than creator > > · Manufacturing sector unlikely to absorb surplus labour at scale > > · Limited gains from the China+1 shift, employment concentrated in low-productivity segments > > · Rising cash transfer schemes crowding out productive investment > > · R&D spending (~0.6–0.7% of GDP) remains well below global benchmarks ### 相关股票 - [PIN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/PIN.US.md) - [IND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IND.US.md) - [FLIN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/FLIN.US.md) - [AB.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AB.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [人工智能冲击高薪 IT 岗位，印度经济增长隐忧凸显](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284878909.md) - [押注 “AI 红利” 新路径！巴克莱点名铜、镍、稀土 “三驾马车”，做多智利比索、印尼盾正当时](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286925448.md) - [知名投行警示：高度捆绑美股，美国经济已成 “AI 杠杆豪赌”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287145647.md) - [4 月经济增长：周期换档？](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286768548.md) - [英伟达在新加坡设亚太第二个研发基地 专注具身人工智能与 AI 模型优化 | 联合早报网](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286988131.md)