--- title: "Mercuria、高盛和摩根大通预测铝市场将遭遇重大冲击" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283907902.md" description: "来自 Mercuria、Goldman 和摩根大通的分析师们对全球铝市场的重大供应冲击发出了警报，这主要是由于海湾地区的干扰。Mercuria 的 Nick Snowdon 将其形容为自 2000 年以来基本金属中最大的供应冲击，铝价已达到四年来的最高点。海湾地区占全球供应的 9%，预计到年底将面临 200 万吨的潜在赤字，而这一情况因美伊冲突而加剧。分析师警告称，依赖中东铝材的美国和欧洲对此次危机特别脆弱" datetime: "2026-04-23T23:57:21.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283907902.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283907902.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283907902.md) --- # Mercuria、高盛和摩根大通预测铝市场将遭遇重大冲击 Analysts at Mercuria, the Geneva-based Swiss commodities trading firm, are **sounding the alarm on the global aluminum market** after severe disruptions in the Gulf region, adding to a growing list of trading desks and research teams warning of a deepening supply shock. "**The scale of the supply shock we're seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000** era," Mercuria commodities analyst Nick Snowdon told Reuters on the sidelines of the_Financial Times Commodities Global Summit_ in Lausanne, Switzerland. Snowdon then told Reuters, **"We are already in a 'black swan' event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale."** **** Mercuria is a Swiss commodities trading house based in Geneva. Its traders sell, ship, store, and finance physical commodities across markets such as oil, gas, power, LNG, and metals. Snowdon's alarm over the global aluminum market is mainly because the Gulf region accounts for 9% of world supply, and with major smelters already declaring force majeure and the Hormuz chokepoint blocked for much of this week, this is shaping up to be one of the most memorable shocks in the metal market in decades. Aluminum prices have already surged to a four-year high, and Mercuria estimates the market could face at least a 2 million-ton deficit by the end of the year, potentially worse if the US-Iran conflict drags on and alumina flows through Hormuz chokepoint remain heavily constrained. "**That shortfall compares with about 1.5 million tons of visible inventory and just over 3 million tons of total global stock, including non-visible units, leaving the market with limited buffers**," Snowdon said, adding that a larger deficit is possible. He warned that the most **exposed supply chains to the Gulf shock are in the US and Europe**. He noted both regions rely heavily on Middle Eastern aluminum imports and **already have low stockpiles**. Last week, JPMorgan analysts warned that the **aluminum market is descending into a black hole**, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term. Separately, Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, "**Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock**: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday. That should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide." From **Mercuria to JPM to Goldman, traders and analysts at these mega institutions are all warning of a metal supply shock**, with major risks that could curtail the production of anything from planes to tanks to cars and evenpower infrastructure. ### 相关股票 - [601600.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/601600.CN.md) - [600219.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600219.CN.md) - [01378.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/01378.HK.md) - [AA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AA.US.md) - [02600.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02600.HK.md) - [CENX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CENX.US.md) - [KALU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/KALU.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [中国铝业 (2600.HK) 指标死叉，行业面临需求压力](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283792079.md) - [中国宏桥将于 6 月 12 日派发末期股息每股 1.65 港元](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283966127.md) - [凯撒铝业｜8-K：2026 财年 Q1 营收 11.07 亿美元超过预期](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283721792.md) - [铝业 “黑天鹅” 降临！摩科瑞：中东战争引爆本世纪最大供应冲击](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283630169.md) - [日本汽车制造商面临铝材供应危机，库存可能在 5 月见底](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283394364.md)