--- title: "全球能源秩序正在崩溃" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284586259.md" description: "根据花旗分析师 Gan Huan Wen 的说法，潜在的厄尔尼诺现象可能会导致棕榈油价格上涨 5%-10%，原因是马来西亚和印度尼西亚的产量减少。历史上，厄尔尼诺现象平均使棕榈油价格上涨 17%。花旗对棕榈油行业持乐观态度，偏好 SD Guthrie。同时，中国的乳制品股票如蒙牛和伊利可能会受益于生鲜乳价格的回升，这一回升是由于供应紧张所推动的。最后，阿联酋退出石油输出国组织（OPEC）可能对美国石油生产商产生混合影响，如果阿联酋增加供应，可能导致减产" datetime: "2026-04-29T13:40:48.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284586259.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284586259.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284586259.md) --- # 全球能源秩序正在崩溃 0703 GMT - Potential El Nino conditions from May could drive crude palm oil prices higher, as drier weather in Malaysia and Indonesia may cut palm oil yields by 5%-10% in the following six to 12 months, Citi analyst Gan Huan Wen says in a note. Historically, El Nino has lifted CPO prices by an average 17% by the end of the weather cycle. He estimates palm oil prices could face 5%-10% upside in 2027 if the weather event materializes, although gains may be capped by ample soybean supply. Citi keeps a bullish view on the CPO sector, with SD Guthrie as its top pick given stronger earnings sensitivity to higher palm oil prices. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com) \-- Chinese Downstream Dairy Stocks Could Get Boost From Milk-Price Recovery -- Market Talk 0637 GMT - Shares of Chinese downstream dairy producers could get a boost from an expected recovery in raw-milk prices, DBS Group Research analysts say in a note. Tightening supply and upstream consolidation are likely to improve raw-milk prices after they potentially bottom in 2Q, the analysts say. The share prices of downstream producers China Mengniu Dairy and Inner Mongolia Yili typically move in tandem with raw-milk prices, and the expected price recovery is likely to favor the two leaders of market share, they say. Both stocks' valuations also remain undemanding, the analysts say. DBS expects both companies to deliver high-single-digit core earnings growth, outperforming the broader sector. (megan.cheah@wsj.com) \-- U.A.E.'s OPEC Exit May Have Mixed Implications for U.S. Producers -- Market Talk 0332 GMT - The United Arab Emirates' exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may have mixed implications for U.S. oil producers, Morningstar's Joshua Aguilar says in a note. OPEC losing a top oil producer undermines the bloc's influence, he says, noting that the U.A.E. is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity. Meanwhile, Aguilar says U.S. oil producers might have to curtail production to remain profitable if the U.A.E. decides to add more supply in a low-demand environment, he says. (megan.cheah@wsj.com) \-- Iron Ore Gains, But Weak Steel Demand Worries Linger -- Market Talk 0253 GMT - Iron ore futures rise in early trade, but worries over weak steel demand linger. China's top decision-making body, the Politburo, said Tuesday that authorities will systematically address challenges posed by external shocks and further enhance energy security. Still, Galaxy Futures notes that there is still little improvement in steel demand this year so far, and the trend could sustain in the first half, given the high base in 2025. The brokerage remains bearish on iron ore prices. The most actively traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 0.3% at CNY783.0 a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com) \-- Nickel Steady Amid Signs of Supply Tightness -- Market Talk 0116 GMT - Nickel is flat in Asian trade after gaining in the last session. More signs of supply tightness are emerging in Indonesia, ANZ Research analysts say in a note, citing Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt's plans to cut output at its Huafei project in Weda Bay by 50% on abnormal price volatility for sulphur, among other reasons. The project accounts for around 3% of global nickel supply, ANZ adds. This comes as the Middle East conflict drives up the price of the chemical used by Indonesian nickel producers for high-pressure acid leaching, ANZ says. The three-month nickel contract on the London Metal Exchange holds steady at $19,445 a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com) Write to Barcelona editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 29, 2026 09:34 ET (13:34 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相关股票 - [600887.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600887.CN.md) - [02319.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02319.HK.md) - [CIADY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CIADY.US.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/C.US.md) - [D05.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/D05.SG.md) - [DBSDY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DBSDY.US.md) - [MORN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MORN.US.md) - [06881.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/06881.HK.md) - [601881.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/601881.CN.md) - [ANZ.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ANZ.AU.md) - [603799.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/603799.CN.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/C-R.US.md) - [ANZGY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ANZGY.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [伊利上市三十年：一家乳企的价值共生之路](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285320679.md) - [乳企营销大变天：金典 “错过”，安慕希 “撤退”，飞鹤 “抄底”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284886061.md) - [厄尔尼诺余威未消，印尼又传减产警报，马棕油高位震荡后要出大事？](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284747804.md) - [棕榈油创四周新高怎么了？大马突然抛出 B15 重磅炸弹，150 万吨缺口要来真的？](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285191427.md) - [2025 年乳业触底企稳：行业加速分化，打法也都变了](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285345105.md)