--- title: "德国工业在三月份因伊朗战争爆发而出现下滑——第二次更新" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285684288.md" description: "德国工业生产在三月份下降了 0.7%，原因是伊朗冲突导致能源价格上涨，这标志着该国制造业复苏的挫折。此次下降紧随二月份 0.5% 的下滑，且同比下降幅度达到 2.8%。德国工业协会 BDI 警告称，今年德国工业可能面临停滞，而四月份汽车销售显著放缓。尽管工厂订单有所增加，但由于能源价格飙升和供应链中断的威胁，前景依然黯淡。欧洲中央银行可能会加息，这将进一步影响工业企业" datetime: "2026-05-08T07:50:13.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285684288.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285684288.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285684288.md) --- # 德国工业在三月份因伊朗战争爆发而出现下滑——第二次更新 By Ed Frankl German industrial production retreated in March, as the start of the conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices climbing, a setback for any recovery for manufacturing in Europe's largest economy this year. Germany's industrial sector had been expected to rebound in 2026, after a downturn that stretches back into the last decade. Pandemic-era supply issues were exacerbated by the pivot away from cheap Russian gas, increased competition from China for German goods, and an expensive green-energy transition. But the country's government last year pledged to unlock more than $1 trillion for defense and infrastructure--investments that it hoped would revitalize Germany's traditionally dominant manufacturing sector. Rising oil-and-gas prices stemming from the war in Iran have darkened the outlook, and are especially damaging to a key energy importer like Germany. Output fell 0.7% in March, driven by a slump in energy production, and accelerating a 0.5% decline in February, Germany's statistics agency Destatis said Friday. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.5% rise in March. On year, production was down 2.8%, the data showed. As a result of the war, German industry faces stagnation at best this year, the country's BDI industrial association said last month, with the conflict creating additional uncertainty and strain for companies. Sales of cars within Germany slowed significantly in April, the KBA motor authority said Thursday. Meanwhile, Volkswagen's head of procurement Karsten Schnake said in an interview with German trade publication Automobilwoche, also on Thursday that the automaker might have to raise prices should the war drag on beyond the middle of the year. President Trump's threatened tariffs of 25% for European car imports into the U.S. present another headache for carmakers. "Given that energy prices continued to soar in April and risks of supply-chain disruptions increased, any near-term improvement in industrial production looks very unlikely," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING bank, said in a note. With production down 1.2% on quarter and Germany's trade surplus narrowing significantly in March, gross domestic product could be downgraded from the 0.3% recorded in January-March, he added. Imports jumped 5.1% in March to their highest value since November 2022, when Germany was paying increasing prices for energy imports after switching off the Russian gas spigot. However, in more positive news, factory orders--which feed into production data with a lag--climbed unexpectedly in March, Destatis said in separate data Thursday. However, some of that might have been front-running of stocks to get ahead of supply-chain disruption prompted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is a key choke point for inputs like industrial gases and fertilizer. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates between two and three times this year, perhaps as soon as next month, according to LSEG data, likely making borrowing more expensive for industrial firms. Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires May 08, 2026 03:35 ET (07:35 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相关股票 - [EWG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/EWG.US.md) - [DAX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DAX.US.md) - [VOW.DE](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VOW.DE.md) - [VOW3.DE](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VOW3.DE.md) - [VWAGY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VWAGY.US.md) - [VWAPY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VWAPY.US.md) - [ING.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ING.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [战争重创之下 德国商业前景跌至 2023 年以来最差水平](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283960658.md) - [复苏预期恐落空！德国 2 月工业产出战前先衰 停火曙光难掩经济颓势](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282149155.md) - [欧元区 PMI 意外跌破荣枯线，服务业下滑拖累经济活动](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283799307.md) - [投资者稍作喘息，欧元区收益率在多年高位附近持稳](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286899970.md) - [德国风电需求激增，屋顶太阳能拍卖量低于预期](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281159095.md)