--- title: "美联储将市场过热视为首要的稳定性风险" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285781195.md" description: "美联储最新的金融稳定报告强调，资产价格高企和投资者乐观情绪是金融稳定的主要风险。报告指出，市场流动性在压力时期尤其脆弱，特别是在国债市场。与伊朗战争相关的地缘政治紧张局势正在加剧市场波动。尽管股市仍受到乐观情绪的支持，但波动性有所上升。银行业被认为是稳健的，资本水平强劲，但金融机构的高杠杆水平仍然令人担忧。地缘政治风险和油价冲击是市场参与者最关心的问题" datetime: "2026-05-08T22:20:38.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285781195.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285781195.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285781195.md) --- # 美联储将市场过热视为首要的稳定性风险 - **Key takeaway**: The Federal Reserve said market froth remains the leading risk to financial stability, consistent with its assessment in November. - **Expert quote**: "Treasury market liquidity initially deteriorated in line with this heightened volatility, demonstrating the vulnerability of market liquidity during periods of acute stress." —Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report. - **What's at stake:** The report comes as the economy faces turbulence with the Iran war driving up energy prices and raising potential implications for inflation depending on how long the conflict lasts. The Federal Reserve on Friday flagged elevated asset prices and continued investor optimism as risks to financial stability. In its latest Financial Stability Report, which comes out twice a year, the central bank said asset valuations, including stocks and other securities, remain "at the high end of their range in most markets." "Measures of broad equity valuations remained elevated. Corporate bond and loan spreads continued to be low by historical standards," the report said. Despite ongoing market optimism, the Fed said investors are beginning to demand more compensation for risk as uncertainty around monetary policy increases. "Treasury yields across 2- and 10-year maturities rose modestly since the November report and remained well above their average levels over the past 15 years," the report said. "Interest rate volatility implied by interest rate swaptions moved higher in March but subsequently retreated, leaving it little changed, on net, and near its long-term median." The Fed said geopolitical risks tied to developments in the Middle East contributed to periods of heightened interest-rate volatility, particularly in shorter-term Treasury securities. "Treasury market liquidity initially deteriorated in line with this heightened volatility, demonstrating the vulnerability of market liquidity during periods of acute stress. In subsequent weeks, liquidity recovered, and, on net, market depth — a measure of liquidity in the Treasury market — was little changed since the previous report." The report, which includes data through April 23, said equity markets remain supported by investor optimism, though volatility has increased. "Two measures of equity market volatility — option-implied and realized — increased since November, with option-implied equity volatility moving to a level above its historical median," the report said. The Fed said commercial real estate prices have shown signs of stabilization following declines in 2022 and early 2024, as vacancy rates and rent growth normalized. In residential real estate, it said house-price growth continues to moderate, though prices remain elevated. The report also highlighted elevated leverage among financial institutions, particularly hedge funds and life insurers. It said leverage at the largest life insurers and at hedge funds remains "well into the upper quartile of its historical distribution." "Life insurers have also steadily increased their investments in risky and illiquid assets over the past decade, and their activity has contributed to the expansion of private credit," the report added. The Fed said the banking sector remains "sound and resilient," citing historically high regulatory capital levels and reduced interest rate risk as banks shorten asset duration. It added that strong profitability continues to support capital accumulation as banks retain earnings rather than rely on external funding. Household and business debt risks were described as "moderate," with total debt falling relative to the size of the economy. Mortgage delinquency rates remained historically low, though some stress has emerged in Federal Housing Administration loans, which have seen delinquencies rise above pre-pandemic levels. The report also included results from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey on market risks. Geopolitical risk ranked as the top concern, cited by more than 75% of respondents, up from 50% in November. Oil shocks ranked second at 70%, while artificial intelligence and private credit were each cited by 50%. The survey included 20 market contacts polled between March and April. ### 相关股票 - [.VIX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.VIX.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [VGSH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VGSH.US.md) - [VBIL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VBIL.US.md) - [VFH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VFH.US.md) - [BIL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BIL.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPY.US.md) - [QQEW.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [SHV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHV.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IVV.US.md) - [ONEQ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [IAI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAI.US.md) - [JEPI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JEPI.US.md) - [RSP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/RSP.US.md) - [VIXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VIXY.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [美联储会议纪要：多数官员倾向必要时加息，内部阵营严重分化](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287130253.md) - [市场只是在捕风捉影？多数经济学家料美联储年内不降息 债市加息定价纯属过度反应](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286924964.md) - [美股尚无深跌基础？德银：三大硬性条件均未满足](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287018901.md) - [美联储今年 “加息” 的预期已升至 80%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286979206.md) - [沃什的第一道死局](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287024134.md)