白银的表现甚至超过了 SOX 指数
我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以总结文章信息。银价正在经历显著的上涨，自 5 月初以来上涨了约 17%，市场条件转向积极买入。尽管有这种势头，资金经理和商品交易顾问（CTA）的持仓仍然较低，这表明如果投机者开始参与，仍有进一步增长的潜力。银市的波动性正在增加，对看涨期权的需求显著上升，这表明市场开始认识到之前定价错误的凸性。随着市场的发展，调整期权策略可能会带来好处
Nobody Owns Enough Silver
Silver continues behaving exactly like a market where upside convexity was massively underpriced. What initially looked like a quiet breakout has now started turning into a much more aggressive squeeze, with price, momentum, and volatility all accelerating at the same time.
The interesting part is that positioning still does not look remotely euphoric. Money managers remain relatively underexposed, CTA positioning still has room to expand aggressively, and upside option demand is starting to accelerate again as momentum keeps building.
Super silver
Silver continues exploding higher. On May 6 we argued silver was quietly setting up for another major breakout as positioning stayed light and momentum chasers remained absent.
Silver is up around 17% since then. We are well above the massive triangle formation as well as the 50 day. Note the 21 day is crossing the 50 day today.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Silver and SOX
In case you missed it last week: you still need silver to power the AI boom. The performance gap between silver and SOX has started narrowing again, even as semis continue surging higher.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Wake up
Things have really started heating up in silver over the past week, yet speculative positioning still remains surprisingly subdued. What happens if speculators finally wake up and start chasing?
Source: LSEG Workspace
Money managers
This cohort is running low silver exposure.
Source: DB
CTAs in silver
CTA silver exposure still remains surprisingly subdued. That could expand aggressively if momentum continues accelerating.
Source: DB
Silver volatility exploding
Silver volatility is playing out just as we outlined last week: "...precious metals tend to carry an upside skew. If silver starts squeezing again, volatility could reprice aggressively higher."
We haven't seen such a grab for silver upside options in a long time.
Source: LSEG Workspace
In the money
Our silver thesis was largely built around the idea that upside convexity was being badly mispriced. The sharp move higher, combined with the massive pickup in volatility, has caused the SLV June 72/82 call spread to explode in value.
The structure is now deep in the money, so rolling into higher strikes while booking some profits may make sense in order to keep maximizing convex upside exposure. The chart shows the SLV June 82/92 call spread as one possible way of adjusting strikes higher.
Convexity was badly mispriced. The market is starting to realize it.
