---
title: "季节性趋势表明长期国债可能在夏季出现上涨"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286072347.md"
description: "季节性趋势表明，长期国债可能在夏季出现反弹，历史数据表明，从现在到八月初，价格上涨和收益率下降的趋势明显。流动性降低、再投资流动、股票轮换以及经济数据疲软等因素共同促成了有利的债券市场。此外，美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势缓解以及油价可能下跌，可能会减轻通胀担忧，进一步提升对长期国债的需求"
datetime: "2026-05-12T09:45:18.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286072347.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286072347.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286072347.md)
---

# 季节性趋势表明长期国债可能在夏季出现上涨

Seasonal setup: From now through early August, historical data shows a strong tendency for long-term Treasury prices to rise and yields to fall. Market drivers: Lower liquidity, reinvestment flows, equity rotation, and softer economic data often create a bullish environment for bonds in summer. Extra tailwinds: Easing U.S.-Iran tensions and potential oil price declines could ease inflation concerns, supporting long-end bond demand.

### 相关股票

- [SCHQ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SCHQ.US.md)
- [EDV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/EDV.US.md)
- [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TLT.US.md)
- [SPTL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPTL.US.md)
- [IEF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEF.US.md)

## 相关资讯与研究

- [5%“生死线” 彻底失守！通胀恐慌席卷全球债市 风险资产 “瑟瑟发抖”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286714930.md)
- [伊朗战事引发市场集体焦虑！美财长发话：收益率与通胀上升是 “暂时的”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287169465.md)
- [打破历年规律、利润高企，5 月甲醇市场反常背后的核心逻辑是→](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287132745.md)
- [油价因伊朗和平协议不确定性及库存下降反弹](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287184638.md)
- [报道：伊朗称美国修改后的提案要求仍然过分](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286790303.md)