--- title: "阿布扎比国家石油公司天然气预计霍尔木兹海峡关闭将产生影响 -2-" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286124123.md" description: "汇丰将布伦特原油价格预测上调至每桶 95 美元，较之前的 80 美元有所增加，原因是预计霍尔木兹海峡的石油生产将逐步恢复。与此同时，铜价因对美国与伊朗谈判停滞的担忧，接近每公吨 14,000 美元。美国政府正在考虑暂停汽油税以应对不断上涨的燃料价格，这反映出对伊朗冲突快速解决的怀疑。由于宏观经济不确定性，黄金价格可能在今年达到新高，而油价在对脆弱的美伊停火协议的担忧中上涨超过 2%" datetime: "2026-05-12T15:10:33.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286124123.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286124123.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286124123.md) --- # 阿布扎比国家石油公司天然气预计霍尔木兹海峡关闭将产生影响 -2- 1229 GMT - HSBC raised its Brent crude price forecast, assuming that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf oil production will gradually recover from mid-June. "Our base case now assumes...a return to near normal system-level production and flows by the end of 3Q26," Kim Fustier, the bank's senior oil-and-gas analyst, says. "A longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post-war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long-term price anchor." HSBC now expects Brent to average $95 a barrel this year, up from $80 a barrel previously. The international oil benchmark is forecast at $75 a barrel from 2027 onward, compared with an earlier estimate of $70. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- Copper Nears $14,000, With Focus on Stalled U.S.-Iran Talks -- Market Talk 1217 GMT - Copper prices rise, nearing the $14,000-a-metric-ton mark crossed earlier this year, after President Trump said the cease-fire with Iran was on "life support." Three-month copper futures on the LME are up 0.1% to $13,936 a ton. "The recovery seen in recent weeks across a wide range of financial markets has shown that the market currently fears only limited economic repercussions from the ongoing crisis in the Middle East," analysts at Commerzbank say. "The longer the blockade lasts, however, the more severe the impact on the global economy is likely to be, meaning that the risk of setbacks should not be underestimated." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- Potential Pause on U.S. Gas Tax Reflects Doubts Over Swift End to Iran War -- Market Talk 1200 GMT - The U.S. government's potential suspension of the gasoline tax to address a surge in fuel prices suggests officials don't foresee a swift deal with Iran to end the war, Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank says. President Trump said he backs suspending the federal tax "until it's appropriate," arguing prices will fall sharply once the conflict winds down. "For U.S. consumers, however, this does not provide much relief, as a gallon of gasoline currently costs nearly $4.50 in the U.S., and only 18.4 cents of that is \[the\] gasoline tax," Lambrecht says. According to AAA, the average nationwide cost of one gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $3.14 a year ago. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- Palm Oil Prices Fall, Weighed by Weakness in Dalian Market -- Market Talk 1033 GMT - Palm oil prices closed lower, having pared some earlier losses. Weakness in Dalian palm oil prices pressured the market in earlier trading, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. However, upbeat data of exports of palm oil for the first ten days of the month, as well as lower production have supported palm oil prices and narrowed the losses, Hameed says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery closed 33 ringgit higher at 4,483 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy\_jiahuihuang) \-- Gold Prices Could Touch New Highs on Macro Uncertainty, Broadening Demand -- Market Talk 0730 GMT - Gold prices could touch new highs this year, buoyed by macro uncertainty boosting diversification into gold and broadening private and official sector demand, says UBS Investment Bank's Joni Teves in commentary. Investor flows appear to be the main reason for gold's near-term moves, while official sector gold flows provide support, the precious metals strategist says. Near-term consolidation, particularly any pullbacks testing the $4,000 level, could be an opportunity to build positions in gold, she adds, given that the market remains underinvested for now. UBS Investment Bank's year-end gold target is $5,600 a troy ounce. Spot gold falls 0.8% to $4,697.05 an ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com) \-- Gold Falls Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data -- Market Talk 0722 GMT - Gold prices fall as a fragile cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran clouds the outlook. In early European trading, gold futures in New York are down 0.7% to $4,697.70 a troy ounce. "The market appears to be stuck between geopolitical anxiety and rising inflation worries," analysts at ANZ say. Meanwhile, physical demand might also be at risk, as India's prime minister called on citizens to avoid buying gold for a year to preserve foreign-exchange reserves. Traders now await the release of key U.S. inflation data, with CPI figures due later on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- Oil Gains 2% as Fragile U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Fuels Concerns -- Market Talk 0714 GMT - Oil prices rise more than 2% as stalled talks between the U.S. and Iran worry markets, with President Trump saying the cease-fire is currently on "massive life support." In early European trading, Brent crude is up 2.1% to $106.36 a barrel, while WTI futures gain 2.5% to $100.51 a barrel. "Oil prices climbed for a second day as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Meanwhile, attention is turning to the release of monthly outlooks from the Energy Information Administration later on Tuesday and the International Energy Agency and OPEC on Wednesday for more cues on supply-and-demand forecasts. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- Indian PM's Call to Cut Energy Use Signals Policy Changes Ahead -- Market Talk 0659 GMT - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for citizens to reduce energy use and conserve foreign exchange may signal policy changes ahead, Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi say in a note. The government's reliance on fiscal spending to cushion surging energy costs since the Iran war began appears to be waning amid concerns over widening fiscal and current account deficits and further rupee weakness, they say. Nomura forecasts India's fiscal deficit to reach 4.6% of GDP in the FY ending March 2027, above the government's 4.3% target, while the current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.4%. Nomura says potential policy measures may include disincentivizing gold imports, tighter outward remittance rules and allowing for higher domestic fuel prices. (jason.chau@wsj.com) \-- Iron Ore Edges Lower; Capital Flows Seen Boosting Valuations -- Market Talk 0304 GMT - Iron ore edges lower in Asian trading, with the most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange down 0.1% at 819.5 yuan a ton. Capital inflows into the broader ferrous market has inflated iron ore's valuations, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a research note. With ample supply growth and current prices outstripping fundamentals, the risk of chasing longs at these levels has surged, they add. (tracy.qu@wsj.com) \-- Aluminum Edges Lower; Hormuz Closure Could Weigh on Demand -- Market Talk 0134 GMT - Aluminum declines in Asian trade, with the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange down 0.1% at $3,574.50 a metric ton. While prices remain elevated above $3,400 a ton, demand for aluminum has potential to slow if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and industrial activity decelerates, weighing on economic growth, say ANZ Research strategists in a note. Supply tightness and elevated prices could also force certain sectors such as automotive and packaging to substitute out aluminum for other materials, they say. ANZ forecasts demand growth could slow to 2%-2.3% in 2026, from 3% last year. (megan.cheah@wsj.com) Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires May 12, 2026 11:03 ET (15:03 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相关股票 - [HSBA.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/HSBA.UK.md) - [600489.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600489.CN.md) - [SCCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SCCO.US.md) - [HSBC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [600362.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600362.CN.md) - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NEM.US.md) - [600547.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600547.CN.md) - [GOEX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [CPER.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CPER.US.md) - [COPJ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/COPJ.US.md) - [GDXJ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [GDXU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDXU.US.md) - [GDX.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDX.UK.md) - [IYE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IYE.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAU.US.md) - [SGDJ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGDJ.US.md) - [COPX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/COPX.US.md) - [159562.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/159562.CN.md) - [NUGT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NUGT.US.md) - [02824.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02824.HK.md) - [RING.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/RING.US.md) - [82824.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/82824.HK.md) - [00005.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/00005.HK.md) - [CBK.DE](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CBK.DE.md) - [CBK.NA](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CBK.NA.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UBS.US.md) - [ANZ.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ANZ.AU.md) - [ANZGY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ANZGY.US.md) - [DTIW.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DTIW.SG.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [美国抵押贷款利率升至近两个月高位](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287087771.md) - [大宗商品综述：原油和黄金价格下跌 镍价上涨](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286966796.md) - [押注 “AI 红利” 新路径！巴克莱点名铜、镍、稀土 “三驾马车”，做多智利比索、印尼盾正当时](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286925448.md) - [汇丰：即使美伊达成和平协议，更多央行仍可能加息](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286854414.md) - [灵宝黄金将于 6 月 23 日派发末期股息每股 0.057237 港元](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286918927.md)