我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以总结文章信息。评级机构对澳大利亚政府的借贷发出了警告，因为其即将达到一个重要的债务里程碑。标准普尔全球评级确认了澳大利亚的 AAA 评级，但警告称，高商品价格带来的意外收益可能是暂时的，联邦总债务接近 1 万亿澳元。预算预测未来四年国家产出的赤字将达到 1.7%，而一般政府赤字预计占 GDP 的 2%-2.5%。预算中计划削减国家残疾保险计划的支出和进行财产税改革，但由于医疗成本上升和结构性问题，仍面临挑战
By James Glynn
SYDNEY--Ratings firms have sounded a warning about Australian government's borrowing as a key debt milestone approaches.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Australia's sovereign rating at AAA after the release of the federal budget on Tuesday, but said windfalls from high commodity prices could be fleeting just as gross federal debt "bumps against the politically sensitive 1 trillion Australian dollar threshold."
The budget forecasts headline budget deficits of around 1.7% of national output over the next four years, compared with 2.0% in the last year's budget.
Still, when combined with large cash deficits at the state government level, S&P estimates general government deficits will remain about 2%-2.5% of GDP.
"Central government gross debt will cross the A$1 trillion mark within the next few months, sharpening political focus on the national balance sheet," it said.
While Australian government debt is still low when compared with other major economies, net general government debt has still risen 13 percentage points of GDP since 2019, S&P said.
The budget contained plans for significant spending cuts in the area of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, and plans to reform taxes on property investment in an effort to deal with record low housing affordability.
The new tax rules on property taxes apply only to assets purchased in the future, so have minimal effect on house prices and rents, it added.
The ratings firm described planned spending cuts on NDIS of A$38 billion over the next four years as "somewhat ambitious."
Containing growth in NDIS spending to 2.0% would mark a dramatic turnaround from growth averaging 24% per year over 2020-2024, it said.
If the federal government has to compensate states facing rising health costs as the NDIS is rolled back, then any fiscal improvement will be undermined, S&P added.
"Our credit assessment consolidates Australia's three levels of government, so spending reallocations among governments do not improve fiscal performance," it said.
Moody's Ratings also warned about the level of combined state and federal borrowing noting "challenges from uneven state-level fiscal positions."
Going forward, the fiscal outlook will also be shaped by risks from slowing growth, owing to supply chain disruptions due to the Middle East conflict, as well as slowing productivity, said Anushka Shah, senior credit officer at Moody's Ratings.
"Structural costs on defense, healthcare, and climate change will further complicate these challenges," Shah added.
-Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 12, 2026 20:59 ET (00:59 GMT)
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