<p>作者：贾斯普里特·卡尔拉</p>
<p>孟买，5 月 13 日（路透社）——印度卢比在周三贬值至历史最低点，延续了其下跌趋势，因为海外债务偿还和进口商对冲需求超过了新德里通过提高黄金和白银进口税所带来的有限支持。</p>
<p>卢比贬值至每美元 95.7950，超过了前一天创下的 95.7375 的低点。</p>
<p>由于美国与伊朗之间的长期战争有效地关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，能源冲击损害了印度的宏观经济前景，并加剧了其经常账户余额的压力。经济学家们下调了增长预测，提高了通胀预期，并警告卢比将面临持续压力。</p>
<p>该货币以每美元 95.7050 收盘，下跌 0.1%，自伊朗战争开始以来已贬值超过 5%，成为今年亚洲表现最差的货币。</p>
<p>分析师表示，如果不是中央银行频繁的市场干预和罕见的监管限制，损失可能会更大。</p>
<p>“油价崩溃或投资组合流动的恢复是卢比熊市反转的前提条件，” 德意志银行高级经济学家拉迪卡·拉奥在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>自战争于 2 月底爆发以来，布伦特原油价格上涨了近 50%。印度是全球第三大石油进口国和消费国，满足了超过 90% 的原油需求和约一半的天然气需求。</p>
<p>印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁采取一系列措施以保护外汇储备，而联邦政府则提高了贵金属进口关税。</p>
<p>“印度储备银行可能在未来几周内采取进一步措施，尽管我们仍然认为提高利率以捍卫印度卢比将是最后的手段，” 巴克莱的分析师表示，维持其年末美元/印度卢比预测在 96.80。</p>
<p>印度储备银行行长桑杰·马尔霍特拉周二表示，印度的货币政策可以忽视暂时的供应冲击，但如果通胀压力变得根深蒂固，中央银行可能需要采取行动。</p>
<p>尽管印度迄今为止保持燃油价格不变，但马尔霍特拉表示，如果冲突持续，政府可能需要提高燃油价格。</p>
<p>全球市场交易谨慎，货币大多保持区间波动。受科技股影响，受人工智能乐观情绪的推动，股市上涨，抵消了对华盛顿与德黑兰谈判停滞的担忧。</p>
<p>（贾斯普里特·卡尔拉报道；谢丽·雅各布 - 菲利普斯和米里甘克·达尼瓦拉编辑）</p>

<p>印度卢比兑美元汇率已跌至创纪录的 95.7950，主要受到海外债务偿还和进口商对冲需求的推动，尽管对黄金和白银进口的税收增加提供了有限支持。持续的美伊冲突对印度的宏观经济前景产生了负面影响，导致增长预测下调和通胀预期上升。分析师表示，卢比的显著回升需要油价下跌或投资组合流入的恢复。印度储备银行可能会考虑进一步措施以稳定货币，尽管加息被视为最后的手段</p>

<p>By Jaspreet Kalra</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：贾斯普里特·卡尔拉</p>
</div><p>MUMBAI, May 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened to an all-time low on Wednesday, extending its losing streak, as overseas debt repayments and importer-hedging demand ‌outweighed limited support from New Delhi raising taxes on gold and silver shipments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>孟买，5 月 13 日（路透社）——印度卢比在周三贬值至历史最低点，延续了其下跌趋势，因为海外债务偿还和进口商对冲需求超过了新德里通过提高黄金和白银进口税所带来的有限支持。</p>
</div><p>The ‌rupee weakened to 95.7950 per dollar, edging past its previous low of 95.7375 hit just a day earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卢比贬值至每美元 95.7950，超过了前一天创下的 95.7375 的低点。</p>
</div><p>The energy ​shock from the prolonged U.S.-Iran war that has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz has hurt India's macroeconomic outlook and strained its current account balance. Economists have lowered their growth forecasts, raised inflation projections and warned of sustained pressure on the rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国与伊朗之间的长期战争有效地关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，能源冲击损害了印度的宏观经济前景，并加剧了其经常账户余额的压力。经济学家们下调了增长预测，提高了通胀预期，并警告卢比将面临持续压力。</p>
</div><p>The currency, which ended down 0.1% at 95.7050 ‌per U.S. dollar, has fallen more ⁠than 5% since the Iran war began, making it Asia's worst-performing currency this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币以每美元 95.7050 收盘，下跌 0.1%，自伊朗战争开始以来已贬值超过 5%，成为今年亚洲表现最差的货币。</p>
</div><p>Analysts say the losses would have been steeper had it not ⁠been for the central bank's frequent market interventions and rare regulatory curbs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，如果不是中央银行频繁的市场干预和罕见的监管限制，损失可能会更大。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A collapse in oil prices or a resumption in portfolio flows are prerequisites for a durable turnaround in the rupee's bearish run,&#34; ​Radhika Rao, ​senior economist at DBS, said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“油价崩溃或投资组合流动的恢复是卢比熊市反转的前提条件，” 德意志银行高级经济学家拉迪卡·拉奥在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Brent ​crude prices have risen nearly 50% ‌since the war erupted at February end. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, meets more than 90% of its crude oil needs and about half of its natural gas demand through imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自战争于 2 月底爆发以来，布伦特原油价格上涨了近 50%。印度是全球第三大石油进口国和消费国，满足了超过 90% 的原油需求和约一半的天然气需求。</p>
</div><p>Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged a range of measures to conserve foreign exchange reserves, while the federal government has hiked tariffs on precious metal imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁采取一系列措施以保护外汇储备，而联邦政府则提高了贵金属进口关税。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Reserve Bank of India ‌may still enact further measures in the weeks ahead, ​though we still think that hiking rates to defend ​the INR will remain a last resort,&#34; ​analysts at Barclays said, maintaining their year‑end USD/INR forecast at 96.80.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“印度储备银行可能在未来几周内采取进一步措施，尽管我们仍然认为提高利率以捍卫印度卢比将是最后的手段，” 巴克莱的分析师表示，维持其年末美元/印度卢比预测在 96.80。</p>
</div><p>RBI Governor Sanjay ‌Malhotra said on Tuesday that India's monetary ​policy can look through ​temporary supply shocks but the central bank may need to act if inflationary pressures become entrenched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度储备银行行长桑杰·马尔霍特拉周二表示，印度的货币政策可以忽视暂时的供应冲击，但如果通胀压力变得根深蒂固，中央银行可能需要采取行动。</p>
</div><p>While India has so far kept fuel prices unchanged, the government may need ​to raise them if the conflict ‌drags on, Malhotra said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管印度迄今为止保持燃油价格不变，但马尔霍特拉表示，如果冲突持续，政府可能需要提高燃油价格。</p>
</div><p>Global markets traded cautiously while currencies were largely rangebound. Technology-sensitive ​shares gained as AI optimism dwarfed concerns over stalled Washington-Tehran negotiations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球市场交易谨慎，货币大多保持区间波动。受科技股影响，受人工智能乐观情绪的推动，股市上涨，抵消了对华盛顿与德黑兰谈判停滞的担忧。</p>
</div><p>(Reporting by Jaspreet ​Kalra; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Mrigank Dhaniwala)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（贾斯普里特·卡尔拉报道；谢丽·雅各布 - 菲利普斯和米里甘克·达尼瓦拉编辑）</p>
</div>

Indian rupee hits record low as outflows, oil strain worsen rout

雅虎北美

由于资金外流和石油压力加剧了市场动荡，印度卢比创下历史新低