<ul>
<li>货币政策不应仅仅基于油价</li>
<li>欧洲央行需要评估能源冲击是否会蔓延至通胀预期、工资和核心通胀</li>
<li>值得为霍尔木兹海峡的长期冲突做好准备</li>
<li>如果事件发展有所不同，调整将会更容易</li>
<li>关键因素是能源冲击的强度和持续时间，以及其对通胀的更广泛传导</li>
<li>至少到目前为止，能源冲击与 2022 年的冲击并不完全可比</li>
<li>欧洲央行致力于在中期内将通胀稳定在 2% 左右</li>
<li>完整报告请见此处</li>
</ul>
<p>欧洲央行的雷恩表示，尽管中东冲突带来了不确定性，但欧洲央行不应仅仅基于波动的油价来制定货币政策。雷恩指出，尽管当前形势呈现出滞涨冲击，短期内增长放缓和通胀上升，但与 2022 年的严重能源危机根本不同。他警告不要重蹈 2011 年的政策错误，当时因能源价格飙升而加息的举措在整体经济疲软时迅速被逆转。</p>
<p>雷恩强调，中央银行的决策将取决于更高的能源成本是否通过工资和长期通胀预期转化为更广泛的通胀。尽管基于市场的通胀预期仍然接近 2% 的目标，且工资数据迄今令人安心，但欧洲央行正在密切关注这一临时价格激增是否可能成为持续的压力迹象。</p>
<p>展望欧洲央行 6 月的会议，雷恩表示，政策制定者将利用更新的预测和最新数据来评估形势。他概述了三种潜在的应对措施，具体取决于冲击的持续时间和严重程度，从对临时性价格激增不采取行动，到如果通胀显著偏离目标则采取果断的紧缩措施。最终，他强调，欧洲央行并不承诺特定的加息路径，将继续根据数据逐次做出决策，以确保中期价格稳定。</p>
<p>市场目前预计 6 月加息的概率为 86%，并预计年内总共将加息三次。但正如其他欧洲央行政策制定者所指出的，一切都取决于霍尔木兹海峡。如果在 6 月之前达成解决方案，油价大幅下跌，欧洲央行可能会暂停加息。</p>

欧洲斯托克 50 指数 ETF - SPDR

L5EW

<p>欧洲央行的雷恩表示，货币政策不应仅仅依赖于油价，强调需要评估能源冲击对通胀预期和工资的影响。他指出，目前的情况与 2022 年的能源危机不同，并警告不要重蹈过去的政策错误。欧洲央行的目标是将通胀维持在约 2%，并将根据数据做出决策。预计 6 月加息的可能性为 86%，欧洲央行的行动将取决于霍尔木兹海峡的局势发展和通胀压力的持续性</p>

<ul>
<li>Monetary policy should not be based on oil prices alone</li>
<li>ECB needs to assess whether the energy shock spreads to inflation expectations, wages and core inflation</li>
<li>It's worth preparing for a protracted conflict in the Strait of Hormuz</li>
<li>If events turned out differently, it would be easier to adjust</li>
<li>Key factors are the strength and duration of the energy shock and any broader pass-through into inflation</li>
<li>The energy shock is not, at least so far, quite comparable to the 2022 shock</li>
<li>The ECB is committed to keeping inflation stable around 2% over the medium term</li>
<li>Full report here</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>货币政策不应仅仅基于油价</li>
<li>欧洲央行需要评估能源冲击是否会蔓延至通胀预期、工资和核心通胀</li>
<li>值得为霍尔木兹海峡的长期冲突做好准备</li>
<li>如果事件发展有所不同，调整将会更容易</li>
<li>关键因素是能源冲击的强度和持续时间，以及其对通胀的更广泛传导</li>
<li>至少到目前为止，能源冲击与 2022 年的冲击并不完全可比</li>
<li>欧洲央行致力于在中期内将通胀稳定在 2% 左右</li>
<li>完整报告请见此处</li>
</ul>
</div><p>ECB's Rehn stated that the ECB should not base its monetary policy solely on fluctuating oil prices despite the uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East. Rehn noted that while the current situation presents a stagflationary shock, with slowing growth and higher inflation in the short term, it remains fundamentally different from the severe energy crisis of 2022. He cautioned against repeating the policy mistakes of 2011, where rate hikes in response to energy spikes were quickly reversed as the broader economy weakened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行的雷恩表示，尽管中东冲突带来了不确定性，但欧洲央行不应仅仅基于波动的油价来制定货币政策。雷恩指出，尽管当前形势呈现出滞涨冲击，短期内增长放缓和通胀上升，但与 2022 年的严重能源危机根本不同。他警告不要重蹈 2011 年的政策错误，当时因能源价格飙升而加息的举措在整体经济疲软时迅速被逆转。</p>
</div><p>Rehn emphasized that the central bank’s decisions will depend on whether higher energy costs translate into broader inflation through wages and long-term inflation expectations. While market-based inflation expectations remain anchored near the 2% target and wage data has been reassuring so far, the ECB is closely monitoring for any signs that this temporary price surge could become a persistent pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雷恩强调，中央银行的决策将取决于更高的能源成本是否通过工资和长期通胀预期转化为更广泛的通胀。尽管基于市场的通胀预期仍然接近 2% 的目标，且工资数据迄今令人安心，但欧洲央行正在密切关注这一临时价格激增是否可能成为持续的压力迹象。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead to the ECB’s June meeting, Rehn indicated that policymakers will utilize updated projections and fresh data to assess the situation. He outlined three potential responses depending on the duration and severity of the shock, ranging from no action for temporary spikes to decisive tightening if inflation deviates significantly from the target. Ultimately, he stressed that the ECB is not committed to a specific rate path and will continue to make data-driven decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis to ensure medium-term price stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望欧洲央行 6 月的会议，雷恩表示，政策制定者将利用更新的预测和最新数据来评估形势。他概述了三种潜在的应对措施，具体取决于冲击的持续时间和严重程度，从对临时性价格激增不采取行动，到如果通胀显著偏离目标则采取果断的紧缩措施。最终，他强调，欧洲央行并不承诺特定的加息路径，将继续根据数据逐次做出决策，以确保中期价格稳定。</p>
</div><p>The market is currently pricing in an 86% chance of a rate hike in June with a total of three hikes expected by year-end. But as noted by other ECB policymakers, everything hinges on the Strait of Hormuz. If we get a resolution before June and oil prices fall significantly, the ECB will likely hold off from hiking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场目前预计 6 月加息的概率为 86%，并预计年内总共将加息三次。但正如其他欧洲央行政策制定者所指出的，一切都取决于霍尔木兹海峡。如果在 6 月之前达成解决方案，油价大幅下跌，欧洲央行可能会暂停加息。</p>
</div>