---
title: "由于干旱袭击了粮仓，美国小麦作物的预测将达到五十年来的最低水平"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286286081.md"
description: "芝加哥小麦期货在美国农业部的 WASDE 报告发布后飙升至两年来的最高点，该报告指出，由于干旱和肥料限制，美国小麦产量将降至 1972 年以来的最低水平。美国农业部预测 2026/27 年度的产量为 15.6 亿蒲式耳，远低于华尔街的预期。报告强调了恶劣天气对冬小麦的影响，预计收成将是自 1965 年以来的最小值。彭博谷物指数年初至今上涨了 17%，反映出在全球食品价格上涨的背景下，小麦及相关市场的强劲增长"
datetime: "2026-05-13T15:22:20.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286286081.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286286081.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286286081.md)
---

# 由于干旱袭击了粮仓，美国小麦作物的预测将达到五十年来的最低水平

Chicago wheat futures surged on Tuesday, hitting two-year highs after the USDA's latest WASDE report signaled a much tighter U.S. supply outlook than traders had anticipated.

Production stress across America's breadbasket is now converging with a megadrought and mounting fertilizer constraints, adding upward pressure on prices at a time when global food prices are rising.

> 🌾Due to poor crop health and a record-low planted area, the United States will produce the smallest wheat volume since 1972.
> 
> 2026 winter wheat output (67% of total output) by class is seen at the lowest levels since:  
> All winter: 1965  
> Hard red winter: 1957  
> Soft red winter: 2020 pic.twitter.com/OcIP3DA0VS
> 
> — Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026

The USDA forecast 2026/27 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.56 billion bushels, sharply below Wall Street expectations of around 1.74 billion, marking the smallest harvest since 1972.

> 🇺🇸The U.S. in 2026 is set to harvest the smallest wheat crop in 54 years.
> 
> Weather has challenged winter wheat this year and condition ratings have plunged. Pairing low yield with low planted area, USDA projects the smallest U.S. winter wheat harvest since 1965. pic.twitter.com/xe2alJOPyr
> 
> — Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026

After the report on Tuesday, Chicago wheat futures jumped to their highest level since May 2024.

The latest WASDE report should come as no surprise to readers, as we have been closely tracking the intensifying drought stress plaguing the U.S. agricultural market:

-   Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting
-   UBS Warns Drought Shock Unfolding Across Breadbasket Of America
-   Wheat Spread Blows Out As Drought Chaos Plagues America's Breadbasket

Saxo commodities head Ole Hansen penned a note on Wednesday, highlighting just how dire the report is for wheat production:

-   USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972, triggering sharp gains in both Chicago and Kansas wheat futures.
-   Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at the lowest level since 1957 following drought damage across the southern Plains.
-   The Bloomberg Grains Index has gained 17% YTD, supported by strong advances in soybean oil, wheat, and related biofuel-linked markets.
-   Managed money traders have returned aggressively to agriculture, although wheat positioning remains mixed due to continued contango focus.

Let's not forget America's breadbasket, plagued by drought, as the Middle East energy shock has disrupted the fertilizer trade and may impact harvests later this year. Global food prices are rising.

**Related:**

-   _Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy_

Our debate at the start of May featured former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. It was hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian, who discussed the potential food crisis that appears to be festering.

> pic.twitter.com/gHcRNn3pGh
> 
> — ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 2, 2026

Watch here.

### 相关股票

- [ADM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ADM.US.md)
- [BG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BG.US.md)
- [WEAT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/WEAT.US.md)
- [WXET.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/WXET.US.md)
- [FTAG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/FTAG.US.md)
- [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UBS.US.md)

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