<p>随着 <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +2.33%) 定于 5 月 20 日公布其 2027 财年第一季度业绩，预测市场已经开始活跃。在 Polymarket 上，Nvidia 超出预期的隐含概率约为 90%。显然，市场情绪偏向乐观。但这是否意味着聪明的投资者应该盲目跟随预测市场进入 财报季 呢？</p><h2 id="3px52babj">华尔街对 Nvidia 第一季度业绩的预期是什么？</h2><p>在覆盖 Nvidia 的华尔街分析师中，进入第一季度报告的共识预期为收入 788 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）为 1.77 美元。然而，有些分析师的预期更为乐观。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/e9f2693be93ab5a67061f7b643d20ee4?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="2000" height="1200" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/e9f2693be93ab5a67061f7b643d20ee4"/></figure><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p><p><strong>高盛</strong> 分析师 James Schneider 预测，Nvidia 的收入将超出共识预期约 20 亿美元。同时，他对 2027 财年第二季度的收入预测为 877 亿美元，略高于华尔街的平均预期 866 亿美元，而他的第二季度 EPS 预期为 2.07 美元，约高出平均水平 6%。</p><p>展开</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/a508b02705b6ae1c8581c6e935a4423a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="Nvidia 股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/a508b02705b6ae1c8581c6e935a4423a"/></figure><h2 id="p3w9719h">NASDAQ: NVDA</h2><p>Nvidia</p><p>今日变动</p><p>(2.33%) $5.14</p><p>当前价格</p><p>$225.92</p><h3 id="eeo9hqhdk">关键数据点</h3><p>市值</p><p>$5.5 万亿</p><p>日内区间</p><p>$221.56 - $227.84</p><p>52 周区间</p><p>$129.16 - $227.84</p><p>成交量</p><p>520 万</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>1.7 亿</p><p>毛利率</p><p>71.07%</p><p>股息收益率</p><p>0.02%</p><h2 id="viv0u5v3g">投资者应该信任预测市场吗？</h2><p>预测市场可以作为情绪聚合器，但将这些平台视为单一公司的真实交易晴雨表，投资者将会遇到麻烦。这些平台实时反映了 “群众的智慧”，听起来很合理——直到你考虑到大多数人实际上知道什么。</p><p>在 Nvidia 的季度业绩情况下，Polymarket 上的平均投注者并没有比普通公众掌握更多的信息，而这些信息已经反映在 Nvidia 的股价中。预测 Nvidia 是否会超出预期的信息优势属于供应链分析师、渠道检查和与行业有深厚关系的机构交易员——而不是在投注票上交易的普通外部人士。</p><p>Nvidia 在预测市场中的隐含超预期概率更多地反映了宏观情绪，而不是公司实际的订单或芯片出货速度。而这种 情绪在其股价中得到了反映，方式类似。</p><p>更聪明的方法是关注已经公布的信息。Nvidia 最大的云数据中心客户最近告诉投资者，他们今年计划在人工智能（AI）基础设施上的支出。四大超大规模云服务商——<strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOGL +3.97%)( GOOG +3.96%)、<strong>Amazon</strong>( AMZN +1.61%)、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>( META +2.31%) 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>( MSFT 0.63%)——预计 2026 年的资本支出总额将超过 7000 亿美元。Meta、Alphabet 和 Microsoft 在各自的财报电话会议中也提高了全年资本支出指引。</p><p>内存股票 也可以作为一个有启发性的代理。<strong>Sandisk</strong>( SNDK 0.33%) 的季度收入激增至 59 亿美元，远超分析师预期的 47 亿美元。此外，管理层对下一个财季销售额的指引为 77 亿至 83 亿美元，每股收益高达 33 美元，远超 华尔街最乐观模型 的预期。</p><p>当 Nvidia 最大的客户以创纪录的速度在 AI 基础设施上支出时，围绕其 GPU 的内存生态系统持续加速，这对公司的季度业绩影响不容忽视。</p><h2 id="wnb2gsa4e">使用定投策略而不是玩轮盘赌</h2><p>虽然我对 Nvidia 的 2027 财年第一季度业绩将超出预期持乐观态度，但我并不建议你在 5 月 20 日之前大量购买该股票。超大规模云服务商的资本支出周期以及来自内存和存储的顺风仅仅支持 Nvidia 的长期需求叙事。这些行业动态并不能告诉你 Nvidia 超出预期的业绩是否会推动股价，毕竟其股价已经接近历史最高点。</p><p>定期使用 定投 策略增加 Nvidia 持仓的投资者将可靠地受益于 AI 基础设施的建设，同时避免在时机不当时进行大额投注的风险。这种纪律比在即使是华尔街最复杂的分析师也可能出错的业绩上进行二元投注更有价值。</p>

英伟达

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

<p>英伟达定于 5 月 20 日公布其 2024 财年第一季度业绩，预测市场显示其超出预期的概率为 90%。华尔街预计收入为 788 亿美元，每股收益为 1.77 美元，高盛预测收入将超出预期 20 亿美元。尽管预测市场反映了市场情绪，但可能无法准确洞察英伟达的表现。投资者被建议采用定投策略，而不是在财报公布前进行大额押注，因为行业趋势支持英伟达产品的长期需求</p>

<p>With <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +2.33%) scheduled to report its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on May 20, prediction markets are already humming. On Polymarket, the implied probability that Nvidia will beat expectations sits around 90%. Clearly, the crowd is leaning bullish. But does that mean smart investors should follow prediction markets blindly into earnings season?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +2.33%) 定于 5 月 20 日公布其 2027 财年第一季度业绩，预测市场已经开始活跃。在 Polymarket 上，Nvidia 超出预期的隐含概率约为 90%。显然，市场情绪偏向乐观。但这是否意味着聪明的投资者应该盲目跟随预测市场进入 财报季 呢？</p>
</div><h2>What is Wall Street expecting for Nvidia's Q1 earnings?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街对 Nvidia 第一季度业绩的预期是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Among the Wall Street analysts who cover Nvidia, the consensus estimates heading into the Q1 report call for revenue of $78.8 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.77. Some are more optimistic, however.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在覆盖 Nvidia 的华尔街分析师中，进入第一季度报告的共识预期为收入 788 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）为 1.77 美元。然而，有些分析师的预期更为乐观。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk1NDQvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1zaWduLWluLWZyb250LTIyLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Nvidia headquarters with company logo on a sign out front." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F869544%2Fnvidia-headquarters-with-nvidia-sign-in-front-22.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> analyst James Schneider is forecasting that Nvidia will beat the consensus revenue estimate by about $2 billion. Meanwhile, his fiscal Q2 revenue forecast of $87.7 billion is slightly above Wall Street's average of $86.6 billion, and his Q2 EPS estimate of $2.07 is roughly 6% higher than the average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>高盛</strong> 分析师 James Schneider 预测，Nvidia 的收入将超出共识预期约 20 亿美元。同时，他对 2027 财年第二季度的收入预测为 877 亿美元，略高于华尔街的平均预期 866 亿美元，而他的第二季度 EPS 预期为 2.07 美元，约高出平均水平 6%。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(2.33%) $5.14</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(2.33%) $5.14</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$225.92</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$225.92</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.5T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.5 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$221.56 - $227.84</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$221.56 - $227.84</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$129.16 - $227.84</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$129.16 - $227.84</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>5.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>520 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>170M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.7 亿</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>71.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>71.07%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.02%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.02%</p>
</div><h2>Should investors trust prediction markets?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该信任预测市场吗？</h2>
</div><p>Prediction markets can be useful as sentiment aggregators, but treating these platforms as a genuine trading barometer for a single company is where investors will run into trouble. These platforms reflect &#34;the wisdom of the crowd&#34; in real time, which sounds valid -- until you consider what most people actually know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测市场可以作为情绪聚合器，但将这些平台视为单一公司的真实交易晴雨表，投资者将会遇到麻烦。这些平台实时反映了 “群众的智慧”，听起来很合理——直到你考虑到大多数人实际上知道什么。</p>
</div><p>In the case of Nvidia's quarterly results, the average bettor on Polymarket doesn't have any more information than the generic public does, and that is already priced into Nvidia stock. The informational edge in predicting whether Nvidia will beat expectations belongs to supply chain analysts, channel checks, and institutional desks with deep industry relationships -- not average outsiders trading on bet tickets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Nvidia 的季度业绩情况下，Polymarket 上的平均投注者并没有比普通公众掌握更多的信息，而这些信息已经反映在 Nvidia 的股价中。预测 Nvidia 是否会超出预期的信息优势属于供应链分析师、渠道检查和与行业有深厚关系的机构交易员——而不是在投注票上交易的普通外部人士。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's implied beat probability in a prediction market tells you more about macro sentiment, not something about the company's actual bookings or chip shipment velocity. And that sentiment gets reflected in its stock price in a similar way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在预测市场中的隐含超预期概率更多地反映了宏观情绪，而不是公司实际的订单或芯片出货速度。而这种 情绪在其股价中得到了反映，方式类似。</p>
</div><p>The smarter approach is to look at what has already been reported. Nvidia's largest data center customers recently told investors exactly how much they plan to spend on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure this year. The big four hyperscalers -- <strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOGL +3.97%)( GOOG +3.96%), <strong>Amazon</strong>( AMZN +1.61%), <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>( META +2.31%), and <strong>Microsoft</strong>( MSFT 0.63%) -- are forecasting combined 2026 capital expenditures of more than $700 billion. Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft also raised their full-year capex guidance during their respective earnings calls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更聪明的方法是关注已经公布的信息。Nvidia 最大的云数据中心客户最近告诉投资者，他们今年计划在人工智能（AI）基础设施上的支出。四大超大规模云服务商——<strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOGL +3.97%)( GOOG +3.96%)、<strong>Amazon</strong>( AMZN +1.61%)、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>( META +2.31%) 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>( MSFT 0.63%)——预计 2026 年的资本支出总额将超过 7000 亿美元。Meta、Alphabet 和 Microsoft 在各自的财报电话会议中也提高了全年资本支出指引。</p>
</div><p>Memory stocks can also serve as a revealing proxy. <strong>Sandisk</strong>'s ( SNDK 0.33%) quarterly revenue surged to $5.9 billion, trouncing analyst estimates of $4.7 billion. Moreover, management's guidance for sales of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion in its next fiscal quarter and up to $33 in EPS far surpassed what the most optimistic models on Wall Street were calling for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存股票 也可以作为一个有启发性的代理。<strong>Sandisk</strong>( SNDK 0.33%) 的季度收入激增至 59 亿美元，远超分析师预期的 47 亿美元。此外，管理层对下一个财季销售额的指引为 77 亿至 83 亿美元，每股收益高达 33 美元，远超 华尔街最乐观模型 的预期。</p>
</div><p>When Nvidia's largest customers are spending on AI infrastructure at record rates, and the memory ecosystem around its GPUs continues to accelerate, the implications for the company's own quarterly performance are hard to dismiss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 Nvidia 最大的客户以创纪录的速度在 AI 基础设施上支出时，围绕其 GPU 的内存生态系统持续加速，这对公司的季度业绩影响不容忽视。</p>
</div><h2>Use dollar-cost averaging instead of playing roulette</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>使用定投策略而不是玩轮盘赌</h2>
</div><p>While I am optimistic Nvidia's fiscal Q1 results will exceed expectations, I'm not suggesting you should load up on the stock before May 20. The hyperscaler capex cycle and the tailwinds from memory and storage merely support Nvidia's long-run demand narrative. These industrywide dynamics do not tell you whether Nvidia beating earnings will move the stock, which is already trading near its all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我对 Nvidia 的 2027 财年第一季度业绩将超出预期持乐观态度，但我并不建议你在 5 月 20 日之前大量购买该股票。超大规模云服务商的资本支出周期以及来自内存和存储的顺风仅仅支持 Nvidia 的长期需求叙事。这些行业动态并不能告诉你 Nvidia 超出预期的业绩是否会推动股价，毕竟其股价已经接近历史最高点。</p>
</div><p>Investors who periodically add to their Nvidia position using a dollar-cost averaging strategy will reliably benefit from the AI infrastructure build-out while avoiding the risks of making ill-timed large bets. This discipline is worth more than a binary wager on a performance that even the most sophisticated analysts on Wall Street could get wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>定期使用 定投 策略增加 Nvidia 持仓的投资者将可靠地受益于 AI 基础设施的建设，同时避免在时机不当时进行大额投注的风险。这种纪律比在即使是华尔街最复杂的分析师也可能出错的业绩上进行二元投注更有价值。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia Beat Q1 Earnings on May 20? Here's What Prediction Markets Think.

- Nvidia 将于 5 月 20 日公布 Q1 财报，预期营收 788 亿美元，EPS 1.77 美元。  
- 高盛分析师预测营收将超出共识预期 20 亿美元。  
- 投资者应采取定投策略，而非盲目跟随预测市场。

Motley Fool

1.5 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Tradr

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

高科技指数 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

高盛

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

亚马逊

微软

闪迪

NVIDIA Corporation

GS Hldg R

Sandisk - WI

英伟达能否在 5 月 20 日超越第一季度的盈利预期？以下是预测市场的观点