--- title: "加拿大帝国商业银行在第二季度预览中表示，银行因资本市场而获得强劲收益，并下调了国家银行的评级" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286449525.md" description: "加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）预计银行在第二季度将实现强劲的盈利，主要受资本市场推动，但建议将投资转向人寿保险公司。分析师保罗·霍尔登（Paul Holden）将国家银行的评级下调至中性，理由是对疲弱的就业市场和住房行业中信用损失的担忧。尽管银行可能报告每股收益超出预期，但资本市场驱动的收益可能无法维持股价。BMO 仍然是唯一被评级为表现优异的银行，因为其股本回报率目标有潜在上升空间。国家银行的股票最近上涨了 20%，目前交易价格为 203.95 美元，下跌 0.34%" datetime: "2026-05-14T17:14:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286449525.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286449525.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286449525.md) --- # 加拿大帝国商业银行在第二季度预览中表示，银行因资本市场而获得强劲收益，并下调了国家银行的评级 01:14 PM EDT, 05/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC recommends investors rotate money out of banks into lifecos, even as it expects a strong second-quarter earnings from the sector when it starts reporting on May 27. Analyst Paul Holden, who notes that the strong earnings will be predominately based on capital markets activity, has also downgraded National Bank (NA.TO) to neutral. Holden says the credit outlook is incrementally worse and he is getting more cautious on credit losses given the weakness in Canadian unemployment, a soft housing market in the GTA, and industry credit metrics. Loan growth is expected to remain muted and net interest margin is also likely to be less of a tailwind this quarter. "We would not be surprised to see the banks report EPS beats again this quarter, but perhaps like the U.S. banks, capital markets-driven beats will no longer be good enough to drive the stocks higher." National Bank is downgraded to neutral from outperform, with Holden pointing out that "two years' worth of returns were delivered in three months". The stock is up ~20% in the past three months and is now trading at the highest multiple in the group (9% premium on F2027 consensus). Fiscal 2028 consensus estimates are giving full credit for ROE expansion, Holden adds. BMO (BMO.TO) is Holden's only outperformer-rated bank as there is still upside potential to consensus estimates relative to its 15% ROE target. "With the recovery in U.S. commercial loan growth, there is also a possibility that U.S. balance sheet growth comes in higher than expected. We also think the relative skew to the U.S. can help with impaired PCLs in the near term." BMO is trading at a 5% discount to the group average P/E and a strong quarter that demonstrates continued progress towards ROE targets should help the stock. Price: 203.95, Change: -0.69, Percent Change: -0.34 MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. ### 相关股票 - [CM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CM.US.md) - [BMO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BMO.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [解码万亿长鑫「朋友圈」](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287046604.md) - [斯特兰蒂斯首席执行官即将公布企业扭亏改革方案](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287059513.md) - [比茅台还暴利！全球鱼子酱一哥五闯 IPO](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287012572.md) - [盘前趋势｜沛齐（PAYX）5/19 人力资源龙头多头信号浮现，就业市场热度仍在？](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286964236.md) - [伊朗宣布 5 月 19 日起恢复股票市场交易](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286653904.md)