<p>在 5 月 20 日市场收盘后，人工智能芯片巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA +4.39%）将公布其 2027 财年第一季度的业绩。</p>
<p>报告之后，Nvidia 的管理团队将与华尔街分析师进行电话会议，讨论本季度的情况、市场状况以及这家芯片制造商的未来，会议由首席执行官黄仁勋主持。</p>
<p>根据 Nvidia 过去超出盈利预期的记录，以及我们已经看到的来自其主要客户的强劲季度报告，我完全预计 Nvidia 将报告另一个出色的季度。然而，我也预测该报告在短期内对股价的影响有限。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk0OTYvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1sb2dvLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="2000" height="1200" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk0OTYvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1sb2dvLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>市场的预期</h2>
<p>市场总是关注分析师对公司季度财报的预估。这些专业人士对股票的预估被平均化，以产生关于盈利和收入的 “共识” 预估，如果公司的结果超出这些水平，市场通常会将其视为一个强劲的季度。</p>
<p>根据 Visible Alpha 的数据，对于 Nvidia 的 2027 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 26 日），分析师的共识预期为（截至 5 月 11 日）：</p>
<ul>
<li>收入：782.9 亿美元</li>
<li>稀释后调整 每股收益（EPS）：1.74 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.04%</li>
</ul>
<p>如果这些数字准确，收入将同比增长近 44%，环比增长约 15%。这也意味着稀释后的每股收益将同比增长近 115%，环比增长约 7.5%。预计的毛利率大致与上一季度持平。</p>
<p>正如我提到的，Nvidia 在超出盈利预期方面有着强劲的记录，在过去 23 个季度中有 21 个季度的调整后每股收益超出预期。此外，还有理由相信半导体领域存在强劲的基本趋势。</p>
<p>在其财报中，Nvidia 通常还会提供正在进行的季度的指导，这在本例中是其 2027 财年的第二季度。如果公司提供的指导优于共识预期，股价应该会受益。通常，指导在市场反应中的重要性超过最近一个季度的结果。</p>
<p>根据 Visible Alpha 的数据，对于其 2027 财年的第二季度，分析师预计：</p>
<ul>
<li>收入：851 亿美元</li>
<li>稀释后调整每股收益：1.91 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.01%</li>
</ul>
<h2>人工智能资本支出正在上升</h2>
<p>尽管今年对 人工智能 超级周期及其能否保持势头存在许多担忧，但没有证据表明其正在放缓。</p>
<p>在 “七大巨头” 中，超大规模云服务商最近公布了财报，所有公司都显著提高了今年资本支出的指导——而这些支出大部分将用于建设和装备人工智能基础设施。</p>
<p>根据 Yahoo! Finance 的数据，在最近的报告之前，<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的资本支出估计总额约为 6700 亿美元，现在的估计接近 7250 亿美元。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Nvidia 股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>Nvidia</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(4.39%) $9.92</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$235.75</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$5.7 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$229.24 - $236.54</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$129.16 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>620 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1.7 亿</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>71.07%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.02%</p>
<p>这对 Nvidia 来说是个好消息，因为这可能意味着超大规模云服务商将更多地花费在芯片或建设需要它们的数据中心上，因此这是一个需求走向的良好指标。</p>
<p>此外，<strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>，全球最大的芯片代工厂，也是几乎所有 Nvidia 最先进芯片的制造商，最近也报告了强劲的季度业绩，这是另一个好兆头。</p>
<h2>预计将有一个良好的季度，但反应可能平淡</h2>
<p>散户投资者应该理解的一件事是，他们在短期内总是处于劣势。</p>
<p>不仅有大量数据表明短期投资是多么困难，而且市场上的大多数机构投资者都是基于 12 个月到 18 个月的持有时间进行投资，因此他们将高度关注公司的短期业绩。考虑到机构投资者拥有的资源和知识，他们可能会在报告到来之前就预见到一个良好的季度。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的股票处于历史最高点，今年上涨了 15.4%，尽管 4 月份经历了一次大规模抛售。</p>
<p>投资者还应该回顾上个季度的报告：该公司超出了共识预期，并提供了比共识更乐观的指导，但第二天股价却下跌。截止目前，Nvidia 的市值接近 5.4 万亿美元，规模如此之大，以至于它必须在盈利上大幅超出投资者的预期，才能在报告后立即看到股价上涨。</p>
<p>散户投资者应确保他们不是基于短期事件对 Nvidia 进行投机；如果他们持有该股票，那应该是因为他们相信其长期前景。</p>
<p>考虑到人工智能的基本趋势以及公司最近的出色表现和乐观的指导，目前很难对 Nvidia 做空。虽然我也对人工智能有一些担忧，但我认为投资者仍然可以放心地长期持有 Nvidia。</p>

英伟达

电子游戏&体育 ETF - GlobalX

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

<p>英伟达预计将在 5 月 20 日公布强劲的 2027 财年第一季度财报，预计收入为 782.9 亿美元，每股收益为 1.74 美元。尽管这一季度可能表现出色，但由于市场预期较高，股价可能不会出现显著波动。分析师预测人工智能资本支出的持续增长将惠及英伟达。然而，散户投资者应关注长期前景，而非短期波动，因为英伟达的股价表现可能不会反映即时的盈利结果</p>

<p>After the market closes on May 20, the artificial intelligence chip giant <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +4.39%) will report its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月 20 日市场收盘后，人工智能芯片巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA +4.39%）将公布其 2027 财年第一季度的业绩。</p>
</div><p>The report will be followed by a conference call between Nvidia's management team, led by CEO Jensen Huang, and Wall Street analysts to further discuss the quarter, market conditions, and the chipmaker's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告之后，Nvidia 的管理团队将与华尔街分析师进行电话会议，讨论本季度的情况、市场状况以及这家芯片制造商的未来，会议由首席执行官黄仁勋主持。</p>
</div><p>Based on Nvidia's track record of beating earnings expectations and the strong quarterly reports that we've already seen from the hyperscalers that are its top customers, I fully expect Nvidia to report another blowout quarter. However, I also predict that report will do little for the stock in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Nvidia 过去超出盈利预期的记录，以及我们已经看到的来自其主要客户的强劲季度报告，我完全预计 Nvidia 将报告另一个出色的季度。然而，我也预测该报告在短期内对股价的影响有限。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk0OTYvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1sb2dvLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Nvidia headquarters." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F869496%2Fnvidia-headquarters-logo.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>What the market expects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场的预期</h2>
</div><p>The market always looks at analysts' estimates for a company before a quarterly earnings print. The estimates of those professionals covering a stock are averaged to produce &#34;consensus&#34; estimates on earnings and revenues, and if the company's results come in above these levels, the market often tags it as a strong quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场总是关注分析师对公司季度财报的预估。这些专业人士对股票的预估被平均化，以产生关于盈利和收入的 “共识” 预估，如果公司的结果超出这些水平，市场通常会将其视为一个强劲的季度。</p>
</div><p>According to Visible Alpha, for Nvidia's fiscal 2027 first quarter (which ended April 26), the analysts' consensus expectations are (as of May 11):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Visible Alpha 的数据，对于 Nvidia 的 2027 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 26 日），分析师的共识预期为（截至 5 月 11 日）：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Revenue: $78.29 billion</li>
<li>Diluted adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $1.74</li>
<li>Gross margin: 75.04%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>收入：782.9 亿美元</li>
<li>稀释后调整 每股收益（EPS）：1.74 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.04%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>If those numbers prove accurate, revenue would have risen nearly 44% year over year and about 15% from the prior quarter. That also means diluted EPS would be up nearly 115% year over year, and up about 7.5% from the prior quarter. The expected gross margin is roughly even with the prior quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这些数字准确，收入将同比增长近 44%，环比增长约 15%。这也意味着稀释后的每股收益将同比增长近 115%，环比增长约 7.5%。预计的毛利率大致与上一季度持平。</p>
</div><p>As I mentioned, Nvidia has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, having done so on adjusted EPS in 21 of its last 23 quarters. There's also reason to believe there have been strong underlying trends in the semiconductor space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我提到的，Nvidia 在超出盈利预期方面有着强劲的记录，在过去 23 个季度中有 21 个季度的调整后每股收益超出预期。此外，还有理由相信半导体领域存在强劲的基本趋势。</p>
</div><p>During its earnings reports, Nvidia also typically provides guidance for the quarter that is then underway, which in this case is the second quarter of its fiscal 2027. If the company provides guidance that is better than consensus estimates, the stock should benefit. Often, guidance proves more important in how the market responds than the most recent quarter's results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其财报中，Nvidia 通常还会提供正在进行的季度的指导，这在本例中是其 2027 财年的第二季度。如果公司提供的指导优于共识预期，股价应该会受益。通常，指导在市场反应中的重要性超过最近一个季度的结果。</p>
</div><p>For the second quarter of its fiscal 2027, analysts, according to Visible Alpha, expect:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Visible Alpha 的数据，对于其 2027 财年的第二季度，分析师预计：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Revenue: $85.1 billion</li>
<li>Diluted adjusted EPS: $1.91</li>
<li>Gross margin: 75.01%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>收入：851 亿美元</li>
<li>稀释后调整每股收益：1.91 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.01%</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>AI capex is climbing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能资本支出正在上升</h2>
</div><p>While there have been many concerns this year about the artificial intelligence supercycle and whether it can maintain its momentum, there's no evidence that it's slowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管今年对 人工智能 超级周期及其能否保持势头存在许多担忧，但没有证据表明其正在放缓。</p>
</div><p>The hyperscalers in the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; have recently reported earnings, and all have significantly increased their guidance for this year's capital expenditures -- and most of those outlays will be used to build and equip AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 “七大巨头” 中，超大规模云服务商最近公布了财报，所有公司都显著提高了今年资本支出的指导——而这些支出大部分将用于建设和装备人工智能基础设施。</p>
</div><p>Heading into the recent reports, the top of the estimated capex range for <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> totaled about $670 billion, according to Yahoo! Finance. Now, estimates are closer to $725 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Yahoo! Finance 的数据，在最近的报告之前，<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的资本支出估计总额约为 6700 亿美元，现在的估计接近 7250 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(4.39%) $9.92</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(4.39%) $9.92</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$235.75</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$235.75</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.7T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.7 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$229.24 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$229.24 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$129.16 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$129.16 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>6.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>620 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>170M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.7 亿</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>71.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>71.07%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.02%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.02%</p>
</div><p>This is good for Nvidia because it likely means hyperscalers will spend more on chips or building data centers that require them, so it's a good indicator of where demand for its wares is headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对 Nvidia 来说是个好消息，因为这可能意味着超大规模云服务商将更多地花费在芯片或建设需要它们的数据中心上，因此这是一个需求走向的良好指标。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>, the largest chip foundry in the world and the manufacturer of nearly all of Nvidia's most advanced chips, also reported a strong quarter recently, another good sign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，<strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>，全球最大的芯片代工厂，也是几乎所有 Nvidia 最先进芯片的制造商，最近也报告了强劲的季度业绩，这是另一个好兆头。</p>
</div><h2>Expect a good quarter followed by a muted reaction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预计将有一个良好的季度，但反应可能平淡</h2>
</div><p>One thing retail investors should understand is that they are always at a disadvantage in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>散户投资者应该理解的一件事是，他们在短期内总是处于劣势。</p>
</div><p>Not only has a ton of data shown how difficult near-term investing is, but most institutional investors in the market are investing based on 12-month to 18-month holding timelines, so they will be laser-focused on companies' near-term results. Given the resources and knowledge institutional investors have, they are likely to see a good quarter coming well before the report arrives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅有大量数据表明短期投资是多么困难，而且市场上的大多数机构投资者都是基于 12 个月到 18 个月的持有时间进行投资，因此他们将高度关注公司的短期业绩。考虑到机构投资者拥有的资源和知识，他们可能会在报告到来之前就预见到一个良好的季度。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia stock is at an all-time high and is up 15.4% this year, despite a big sell-off in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的股票处于历史最高点，今年上涨了 15.4%，尽管 4 月份经历了一次大规模抛售。</p>
</div><p>Investors should also look back at last quarter's report: The company beat consensus estimates and provided guidance that was more upbeat than the consensus, only to see its stock fall the next day. With a nearly $5.4 trillion market cap as of this writing, Nvidia is so big that it really has to exceed investor expectations by a wide margin on earnings to see its stock rise immediately after a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还应该回顾上个季度的报告：该公司超出了共识预期，并提供了比共识更乐观的指导，但第二天股价却下跌。截止目前，Nvidia 的市值接近 5.4 万亿美元，规模如此之大，以至于它必须在盈利上大幅超出投资者的预期，才能在报告后立即看到股价上涨。</p>
</div><p>Retail investors should make sure they are not betting on Nvidia based on near-term events; if they own the stock, it should be because they believe in its long-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>散户投资者应确保他们不是基于短期事件对 Nvidia 进行投机；如果他们持有该股票，那应该是因为他们相信其长期前景。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to bet against Nvidia right now, given the underlying trends in AI and the company's recent impressive performances and upbeat guidance. While I, too, have some concerns about AI, I think investors can still comfortably buy and hold Nvidia for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到人工智能的基本趋势以及公司最近的出色表现和乐观的指导，目前很难对 Nvidia 做空。虽然我也对人工智能有一些担忧，但我认为投资者仍然可以放心地长期持有 Nvidia。</p>
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Prediction: Nvidia Will Deliver Another Blowout Earnings Report on May 20, but It Won't Move the Stock in a Big Way

- 英伟达将在 5 月 20 日发布 2027 财年第一季度财报。  
- 市场预计营收为 782.9 亿美元，调整后每股收益为 1.74 美元。  
- 尽管业绩良好，股价反应可能较为平淡，投资者需关注长期前景。

Motley Fool

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

电子游戏&电子竞技 ETF - VanEck Vectors

视频游戏技术 ETF - ETFMG

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

预测：英伟达将在 5 月 20 日发布另一份出色的财报，但这不会对股价产生显著影响