---
title: "美联储预计通胀率将达到 4.2%，滞胀风险正在加剧"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286642090.md"
description: "克利夫兰联邦储备银行预测，5 月份消费者物价指数（CPI）将上涨 4.2%，为一年多以来的最高水平，首席执行官们预计高物价将持续到 2027 年。从 2025 年 4 月到 2026 年 4 月，工资增长了 3.6%，但低于 3.8% 的通货膨胀率，导致低收入家庭的购买力下降。由于能源冲击、持续的通货膨胀和增长放缓，到 2026 年底出现滞涨的可能性为 40%"
datetime: "2026-05-16T10:07:29.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286642090.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286642090.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286642090.md)
---

# 美联储预计通胀率将达到 4.2%，滞胀风险正在加剧

Inflation forecast jumps: The Cleveland Fed expects May CPI to climb 4.2%, the highest annual increase in over a year, with CEOs projecting elevated prices well into 2027. Wages lag prices: From April 2025 to April 2026, wages grew 3.6% while inflation reached 3.8%, cutting purchasing power, especially for lower-income households hit by high energy costs. Stagflation risk rises: Prediction markets now give a 40% chance of stagflation by year-end 2026, as energy shocks, sticky inflation, and slowing growth create a challenging policy environment.

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