---
title: "债券、原油和牛市：印度市场准备迎接新兴风险"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286678433.md"
description: "在四月份，印度的 Nifty Microcap 指数上涨了 21.55%，而 CNX500 指数上涨了 10.5%。尽管三月份市场出现下滑，零售投资者仍在系统投资计划（SIPs）中投资超过 28000 亿印度卢比。然而，美国国债收益率上升，目前已超过 4.5%，而印度卢比贬值，接近 100 卢比兑 1 美元，这引发了担忧。印度对石油进口的高度依赖加剧了脆弱性，布伦特原油价格超过 100 美元。通胀压力不断加大，批发价格跃升至 8.30%。如果零售通胀超过 6%，政策制定者可能需要收紧流动性"
datetime: "2026-05-17T08:49:24.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286678433.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286678433.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286678433.md)
---

# 债券、原油和牛市：印度市场准备迎接新兴风险

This April, the Nifty Microcap index was up 21.55 per cent, an unprecedented rise since its launch in 2022. The CNX500 rose 10.5 per cent, the only month in the last five years in which it was up by more than 10 per cent. The market decline in March was treated like a festival-season discount sale. Retail investors kept pouring more than ₹28,000 crore a month into systematic investment plans (SIPs). Even though the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil passes and gas trade takes place — has been closed off since March 2, something changed last week. For starters, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an extraordinary public appeal urging Indians to avoid foreign travel and buying gold for one year. Governments do not usually ask citizens to postpone holidays or curb gold purchases unless there is a serious underlying anxiety about the balance of payments, currency stability, and foreign-exchange outflows.

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