--- title: "丰田不断努力组建一个迟迟未能成形的氢市场" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286828892.md" description: "丰田最近的氢燃料卡车计划涉及在南加州达成 40 辆 8 级卡车的交易，并在安大略市支持加氢基础设施。然而，这一举措反映出的是一种受控的部署，而非对氢燃料卡车的强劲市场需求。尽管丰田在氢技术方面进行了大量投资和建立了合作伙伴关系，但高昂的燃料成本和客户需求不足等挑战依然存在，这引发了关于氢能作为主流交通解决方案的可行性的问题" datetime: "2026-05-18T23:40:38.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286828892.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286828892.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286828892.md) --- # 丰田不断努力组建一个迟迟未能成形的氢市场 Toyota’s latest hydrogen truck move is not interesting because it is large. Forty trucks is not a large order in a global transport market. It is interesting because of what sits behind it. Hyroad, formed mostly by ex-Nikola executives, acquired hydrogen truck assets from Nikola’s remains, and Toyota then appeared with a deal to use 40 Class 8 hydrogen trucks in Southern California logistics while supplying hydrogen through refueling infrastructure Toyota is developing in Ontario, California. That is not evidence of hydrogen truck market pull. It is a controlled deployment stitched together from salvaged assets, Toyota demand, and Toyota fuel infrastructure. This is not an isolated pattern. A hydrogen transportation announcement appears under another company’s logo, but Toyota is often somewhere in the background as fuel-cell module supplier, vehicle development partner, infrastructure investor, fleet customer, hydrogen offtaker, station backstop, or some combination of those roles. CaetanoBus in Portugal, FirstElement in California, Shell’s earlier California hydrogen station push, Toyota’s Long Beach Tri-gen project, PACCAR fuel-cell trucks, VDL logistics trucks, Hino and Isuzu collaborations, BMW fuel-cell work, and marine and rail demonstrations all show variants of the same thing. That does not mean every Toyota hydrogen action is irrational. Large companies can and should make long-duration technology bets. Toyota is one of the world’s largest industrial firms, with deep engineering capability, a long history of hybrid powertrains, and a culture that prizes durability and optionality. It had reasons to preserve fuel-cell capability. Japan had industrial-policy reasons to support hydrogen. California was willing to subsidize refueling infrastructure. Buses, ports, trucks, logistics routes, and controlled fleets looked more plausible for hydrogen than private cars. In the mid-2010s, it was reasonable for Toyota to buy learning. But a market that is emerging should require less corporate scaffolding over time, not more. The tests are straightforward: repeat customers, independent station economics, rising utilization, falling costs, and use cases where batteries clearly fail. Those tests were never all green. Toyota’s early strategy was coherent because it was an option-value bet, not because hydrogen transportation was already passing the market tests. From 2015 to 2020, the honest assessment was more yellow than green. Toyota opened fuel-cell patents, supported stations, promoted the Mirai, worked with infrastructure partners, and explored buses, trucks, and fuel-cell modules. That was defensible because uncertainty was still high, but the warning signs were visible. The passenger-car case was already failing the math by 2019. I wrote then that hydrogen cars had much higher fuel costs and worse carbon implications than battery-electric vehicles. The Mirai could be engineered well and still sit inside an energy system that did not make economic sense. A car that travels roughly 60 to 70 miles per kg looks efficient until the kg costs too much, requires dedicated stations, and starts from an energy pathway that wastes far more electricity than charging a battery directly. California’s own reporting put retail hydrogen around $16.50/kg in 2019, while gasoline parity required roughly half that under common comparisons. That was not a rounding error. At $16.50/kg, a Mirai’s fuel cost is about $0.24 to $0.28 per mile. At $34.55/kg, the 2024 California level reported by S&P Global, it is about $0.49 to $0.58 per mile. A battery-electric vehicle at 3.5 miles per kWh and $0.20 per kWh is about $0.057 per mile. Even at $0.35 per kWh, it is about $0.10 per mile. That arithmetic was bad before the later price spike made it indefensible. The first big strategic turning point was around 2020. Toyota had effectively given the initial market introduction period a clock, and the market had not taken off. That did not require Toyota to abandon fuel cells entirely. It did require a more disciplined frame. Public light-duty hydrogen should have moved from growth platform to installed-base obligation and research program. Fuel-cell modules could still be pursued in controlled industrial and specialty applications, but with hard evidence gates. Trial success should have meant lower Toyota dependence, lower costs, higher utilization, and independent repeat customers. Instead, pilots and partner announcements too often continued to be treated as progress even when the market tests failed. From 2020 to 2022, Toyota kept looking for transportation segments where hydrogen might still fit. The focus shifted toward controlled fleets, buses, ports, depot refueling, and heavier vehicles. That was explainable, but the warning signs were compounding. Battery-electric buses were scaling. Battery-electric cars were becoming mainstream. Depot charging was improving. Hydrogen’s fuel-cost problem, infrastructure problem, and customer-demand problem were not improving. The world was moving, but not in Toyota’s preferred direction. California is the stress test because it is not an unfair example. It had policy support, early adopters, automaker involvement, clean-transport branding, infrastructure grants, and one of the few real hydrogen refueling networks in the world. If public light-duty hydrogen could have shown self-assembly anywhere in North America, California was the place. CARB’s 2025 reporting described a market with 14,128 fuel-cell vehicles on the road as of April 2025, the first recorded year-over-year decline. It described high retail hydrogen prices reducing consumer demand, reducing driving, lowering dispensed volumes, and making stations struggle to cover operating costs. It reported 61 hydrogen stations as of August 2025, of which 50 were open-retail. That was not the shape of a market reaching escape velocity. Shell’s 2024 exit from California light-duty hydrogen refueling made the point clearer. When a global oil and gas major walks away from retail hydrogen stations in the leading North American market, the answer to the independent station economics test is no. That is not “not yet.” It is no after years of public support, automaker involvement, and technology promotion. Toyota’s FirstElement investment in 2025 should be read in that context. FirstElement was described as California’s largest retail hydrogen fueling provider, with 92 fueling positions across 38 locations. Toyota’s investment was framed as support for current and future fuel-cell vehicle drivers. That is understandable from an installed-base point of view, but it reads more like market maintenance than market creation. California was not the only warning. Quebec’s Mirai fleet was another clean example because it moved the issue away from California’s specific station network. The province leased about 50 fuel-cell cars, mostly Toyota Mirais, and later returned all of them. The real-world use was so poor that the implied hydrogen cost landed in the absurd range when the system costs were spread across actual consumption. That was not a technical failure of the car as a machine. It was a failure of the transport system around the car. The same distinction matters for buses. A hydrogen bus on the road is not the same thing as a commercially robust hydrogen bus market. CaetanoBus and the Toyota H2.City Gold are useful because they show Toyota’s technology and strategic presence under another logo, but they also show how easy it is to mistake vehicle existence for market viability. Public agencies can buy hydrogen buses with grants, national strategies, European funding, or demonstration support. That proves procurement can occur under policy pressure. It does not prove the fuel, depot infrastructure, maintenance systems, spare parts, reliability, and lifecycle economics are winning on their own. The battery comparison is where Toyota’s position looks most rigid. For light-duty vehicles, battery-electric vehicles won the market argument. For buses, batteries have also won of the real market. Heavy trucks gave hydrogen its longest rhetorical runway, but battery-electric trucks and charging systems have advanced enough that hydrogen now carries the burden of proof there too. Hydrogen no longer has to show that it can work. It has to show that batteries cannot do the job at lower total system cost. This is where Toyota’s hidden pattern matters. The diversity of logos can make the market look broader than it is unless the relationships are traced. A Portuguese hydrogen bus, a California refueling provider, a truck deployment, a marine generator, and a rail demonstrator may all look like separate market signals. In many cases, Toyota is one of the common denominators. Toyota is involved as powertrain supplier, module supplier, fleet customer, infrastructure investor, station supporter, hydrogen offtaker, and policy narrative amplifier. From PACCAR and VDL trucks to CaetanoBus, BMW, Chinese fuel-cell joint ventures, marine systems, rail pilots, and Long Beach Tri-gen, the pattern is broad. That does not make the activities fake. It does mean analysts should be careful not to double-count one company’s strategy as evidence of a broad market forming. Some of these projects may produce useful technical learning. Some may find small specialty uses. But many of them depend on Toyota’s technology, credibility, capital, demand, or infrastructure role. Hyroad is this pattern in miniature: asset salvage, corporate scaffolding, and a controlled use case where enough variables can be managed to keep the hydrogen story alive a little longer. Toyota’s internal logic deserves to be understood rather than mocked. Fuel-cell capability is a real asset. Toyota invested for decades. Fuel cells can be durable, and they can serve some stationary, industrial, and controlled-use cases. Japan’s energy-security thinking is more hydrogen-friendly than North America’s battery-first transport trajectory. Toyota was also right about hybrids in the 1990s and 2000s when many others were wrong, and built a culture around engineering patience, incrementalism, and skepticism of premature technology conclusions. That culture served it well for hybrids. It may be serving it poorly for hydrogen transportation. The line between strategy and rigidity is crossed when adverse evidence does not change resource allocation. By 2019, the passenger-car math was already bad. By 2020, Toyota’s hydrogen transportation strategy should have shifted from broad market creation to bounded salvage. By 2023 and 2024, after California’s fuel prices, station exits, consumer frustration, and adoption weakness became visible, continued escalation was no longer a neutral hedge. From 2025 to 2026, Toyota’s continued role as customer, supplier, fuel backstop, station supporter, and ecosystem defender looked less like strategy and more like institutional refusal to update. Toyota does not need to abandon fuel cells entirely. It does need to stop treating hydrogen transportation as a broad decarbonization pathway. Public light-duty hydrogen is an installed-base obligation, not a growth platform. Fuel-cell modules should be treated as a bounded specialty business, with clear evidence gates, non-Toyota capital, and direct comparison against battery-electric alternatives on delivered service cost. Testing hydrogen was not the failure. Failing to update was. Toyota’s hydrogen strategy began as option value, moved into market assembly, and now too often looks like market backstopping. 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