--- title: "瑞银集团在发现供应链状况出现令人担忧的快速恶化后，重新启动了供应链压力监测" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286882698.md" description: "瑞银集团已重新启动其全球供应链压力指数，原因是全球物流出现了令人担忧的信号，压力以自疫情初期以来最快的速度上升。该指数在三月和四月显著攀升，引发了对中东冲突可能造成的干扰的担忧。分析师警告称，霍尔木兹海峡的持续封锁可能会对全球贸易产生严重影响，并可能导致石油短缺，而收益率的上升可能会对股票产生负面影响" datetime: "2026-05-19T09:02:22.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286882698.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286882698.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286882698.md) --- # 瑞银集团在发现供应链状况出现令人担忧的快速恶化后，重新启动了供应链压力监测 One week after Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned CNBC of a "new wake-up call" for global trade amid the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a deepening energy crisis that could intensify further in June, UBS analysts are out with a new note telling clients they have "reactivated" their Global Supply Chain Stress Index in response to increasingly alarming signals emerging across global logistics networks. "**Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic**," UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade wrote in a note on Sunday. Lafourcade explained that global supply chain stress is emerging quickly, with the **index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.** "**We are now reactivating** it to assess disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict," he said, noting that the last time the index was published was in February 2023, or the period in which Covid snarled supply chains. The Global Supply Chain Stress Index is surging again. PMI delivery times are increasing again. The full note can be read by _Professional subscribers_ _here at our new_ Marketdesk.ai _portal._ **Related:** - Maersk CEO Warns Iran War Is A "New Wake-Up Call" For Global Trade - Trump's Project Freedom Likely Triggered By Oil Market's One-Month Countdown To Chaos JPMorgan analysts warned that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked for another four weeks. With that said, June is only a few weeks away, and early indications suggest that continued disruption of the maritime chokepoint could begin to materially affect global trade next month, with risks extending well beyond that if the chokepoint remains shuttered. Separately, with Brent back in triple-digit territory, UBS analyst Dimitrios Laloudakis pointed to surging yields worldwide: > _US yields join G10 peers in estimating rate hikes for 2026. 2y yields comfortably above moving averages. Cross asset implications should drag equities lower, vol higher, and duration to selloff._ It appears something has to give if Hormuz remains choked by the end of the month. ### 相关股票 - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UBS.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VDE.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UCO.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XES.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XOP.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEO.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-J.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [美债日债大风暴，如何化解？](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286897361.md) - [壳牌股东否决气候决议，CEO 与董事长高票连任](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286956363.md) - [IEA 发出重磅警告：商业石油库存加速耗尽，化肥和石油双重打击恐引发新一轮通胀风暴](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286768382.md) - [伊拉克 4 月原油出口环比下降近 47%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286856360.md) - [壳牌首席执行官：满足石油需求在未来几十年仍将至关重要](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286911374.md)