--- title: "随着印尼盾跌至历史新低，印度尼西亚央行面临艰难的决策" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286889058.md" description: "印度尼西亚的卢比汇率已创下历史新低，这引发了市场对中央银行可能提高利率以稳定货币的猜测。分析师们对潜在的加息意见不一，虽然这可能会支持卢比，但也可能阻碍经济增长。关于通货膨胀和财政稳定的担忧日益加剧，政府债券收益率上升以及雅加达综合指数大幅下跌。中央银行即将做出的决定在持续的地缘政治紧张局势影响能源价格的背景下显得尤为关键" datetime: "2026-05-19T09:50:28.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286889058.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286889058.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286889058.md) --- # 随着印尼盾跌至历史新低，印度尼西亚央行面临艰难的决策 By Ying Xian Wong and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa A fresh bout of risk-off sentiment sent the rupiah to another record low on Tuesday, complicating matters for Indonesia's central bank ahead of its rate-setting meeting. Rupiah stability is a core mandate for Bank Indonesia, and the continued depreciation is fueling expectations that it could raise interest rates this week--a move that would end a pause stretching back to September 2025. Wednesday's decision could easily go either way, analysts say. Tighter policy could support the rupiah but risks undermining growth at a time of heightened uncertainty. BI may instead choose to stay on the sidelines and rely on foreign-exchange intervention. It's a trade-off facing other central banks in Asia, where many economies depend on energy imports from the Middle East. If the conflict drags on and triggers a broader rise in inflation, analysts expect more hawkish pivots ahead. So far, the energy shock hasn't fueled inflation in Indonesia thanks to government measures such as fuel subsidies. But gauges of factory activity suggest businesses are starting to feel the squeeze from rising costs. "We believe Indonesia's window of rising growth and low inflation is likely to close soon in the face of the energy crisis," HSBC economists wrote in a note. They now expect a rate hike this week because of the rupiah's sharp weakness. Even if BI holds steady, they still project two rate increases this year, stopping short of a more aggressive call on expectations that growth will slow. Concerns about a global inflation surge are mounting as the conflict drags on, reflected in the recent rise of government bond yields across markets. For Indonesian assets, those fears are compounding existing concerns about the government's fiscal position. Expanding social programs and ballooning subsidies have fueled worries about a breach of the fiscal-deficit cap. Investability concerns raised by index providers MSCI and FTSE Russell have further weakened sentiment. Earlier this week, the yield on Indonesia's 10-year government bond rose to its highest level in more than a year, at around 6.86%. On Tuesday, the dollar hit another record high of 17,705 rupiah, LSEG data showed, making the rupiah the worst-performing Asian currency so far this year. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index has fallen more than 23% so far in 2026. Against that backdrop, DBS's Sherilyn Chew sees scope for a defensive rate hike by BI this week to help anchor expectations at the margin. Still, doubts exist about how effective a rate hike would be at steadying the rupiah. For Capital Economics' Jason Tuvey, tighter policy would at best provide a brief respite. "We think investor concerns about the policymaking environment are the main factor behind the rupiah's struggles," said Tuvey. BI has already used nonmonetary tools to stabilize the currency, including tightening rules on dollar buying, and has vowed to keep defending against excess volatility. But that may not be enough. "Ultimately what's needed is a clear shift in direction by the government towards more investor-friendly policymaking," or risk premiums on Indonesian assets could rise further and place renewed pressure on the rupiah, Tuvey said. \--Amanda Lee contributed to this report Write to Ying Xian Wong at yingxian.wong@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires May 19, 2026 05:36 ET (09:36 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相关股票 - [00005.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/00005.HK.md) - [HSBC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [MSCI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MSCI.US.md) - [D05.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/D05.SG.md) - [DTIW.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DTIW.SG.md) - [HSBA.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/HSBA.UK.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [操纵油价，特朗普有一套！](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287134089.md) - [AI 电力基建新贵 SB Energy 秘密提交 IPO 申请：软银、OpenAI 投资，深度绑定 “星际之门”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287136688.md) - [三星罢工，美光抢人](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287161118.md) - [融资 6 轮 腾讯系小鹅通再闯 IPO](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287081389.md) - [腾讯推出操作系统层级 AI 助手 “马维斯” 每人每天可享 1000 万免费 Token](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287153068.md)