--- title: "印度评级机构称，印度储备银行可能会在整个 2027 财年将回购利率维持在 5.25%" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286915950.md" description: "印度评级机构预测，印度储备银行将在 2027 财年之前将回购利率维持在 5.25%，理由是通胀在中央银行的容忍范围内保持稳定。国内生产总值（GDP）增长预计为 6.7%，零售通胀为 4.4%。报告强调，全球通胀趋势和原油价格可能对国内增长造成压力，同时由于经济不确定性，私人投资疲软。预计贸易赤字将达到 GDP 的 10.4%，为十年来最高，受到高企的原油价格和货币贬值的影响" datetime: "2026-05-19T04:46:35.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286915950.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286915950.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286915950.md) --- # 印度评级机构称，印度储备银行可能会在整个 2027 财年将回购利率维持在 5.25% The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to either raise or cut the repo rate during the rest of FY27 and is expected to maintain status quo at 5.25 per cent, according to a report by India Ratings and Research, which said inflation is likely to remain within the central bank’s tolerance band despite the expected pass-through of higher fuel prices. The agency projected GDP growth at 6.7 per cent and retail inflation at 4.4 per cent for the year. “We don't expect RBI to increase or reduce the repo rate in the rest of this fiscal. It is likely to remain the same at 5.25 per cent,” the agency said. “The premise that we are using as to why we are anticipating status quo in the key policy rates is that even though we are seeing an upward trajectory in CPI… we are still expecting or projecting the CPI to remain within the RBI tolerance band of less than 6 per cent,” it added. India Ratings said the impact of the West Asia conflict was visible across global inflation trends, crude prices, and currency movements, and was beginning to weigh on India’s domestic growth outlook. It said both private and government consumption were expected to slow due to inflationary pressures, uncertainty around crude prices, and concerns related to monsoon conditions. The agency said private investment activity could remain subdued as companies adopt a “watchful mode” amid slowing export demand, elevated domestic inflation, and uncertainty over consumer spending. It added that sectors dependent on crude oil derivatives were likely to face greater pressure, while services segments such as data centres and global capability centres could provide some support. India Ratings projected the trade deficit at around 10.4 per cent of GDP, which it said would be the highest in the past 10 years, driven by elevated crude prices, currency depreciation, and higher imports of fuel, electronics, gold, and silver. It said the rupee was expected to depreciate by around 6-7 per cent on average during FY27. The report said the 10-year government security yield was likely to remain above 7 per cent amid concerns over fiscal deficit levels and government borrowing. Higher government securities yields could push up borrowing costs for states, corporates, and non-banking financial companies, it added. India Ratings assumed average crude oil prices at $95 per barrel during FY27, with prices averaging $110 per barrel in the first quarter before easing gradually through the year. It estimated that every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices could reduce GDP growth by 44 basis points and increase inflation by 93 basis points. The agency said the government’s fiscal position could face pressure from lower excise duty collections and higher subsidy requirements related to fuel, LPG, and fertilisers. However, it said any government intervention was more likely to be in the form of guarantees and liquidity support rather than direct cash transfers. India Ratings also said the impact of El Niño was likely to become more visible from the second quarter of FY27, while noting that higher irrigation coverage and the increasing share of livestock and forestry within agriculture could cushion the impact on farm output. ### 相关股票 - [EPI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/EPI.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/INDA.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [印度拟大幅降低外国投资者债券投资税率，以遏制卢比贬值](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286378503.md) - [知情人士：印度考虑下调外资债券投资相关税负](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286385065.md) - [6 月还是 7 月？日本央行加息路径三种情景推演](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286716564.md) - [一只如今能跑赢通胀的基金](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286348401.md) - [通胀溢价叠加海外压力推升美债收益率，沃什面临通胀回升政治两难---W20 海外宏观脱水](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286689655.md)