--- title: "阵亡将士纪念日的汽油需求激增与霍尔木兹海峡的冲击相碰撞，5 美元的需求破坏线即将逼近" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286958319.md" description: "随着阵亡将士纪念日的临近，美国汽油价格的全国平均为每加仑 4.53 美元，由于霍尔木兹海峡未解决的紧张局势，可能会出现价格上涨。分析师警告，如果海上交通不尽快恢复，原油短缺的风险将加剧。美国汽车协会（AAA）预测将有 3910 万美国人选择驾车出行，这将在假期周末提高汽油需求，可能会将价格推向 5 美元的需求破坏阈值" datetime: "2026-05-19T19:42:20.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286958319.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286958319.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286958319.md) --- # 阵亡将士纪念日的汽油需求激增与霍尔木兹海峡的冲击相碰撞，5 美元的需求破坏线即将逼近 Drivers heading into Memorial Day weekend are set to face some of the highest regular gasoline prices at the pump in years. **With the U.S. national average sitting at $4.53 per gallon** (according to AAA data) and no resolution yet on a U.S.-Iran peace deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, **pump prices risk rising even higher into the holiday weekend as the summer driving season begins.** **Let's start with the chart of the day**: AAA retail gas prices in the U.S. on a seasonal basis closely track the 2022 run, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict was in its first several months. **Gas prices in 2022 did not top out until mid-June.** The **impending problem**, with no near-term Hormuz resolution, as JPMorgan analysts recently warned, is that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked into June. Former CIA analysts and current RBC commodities head Helima Croft told clients days ago that she is "**very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future**." **AAA Retail Gas Price Map** For Memorial Day 2026, **AAA forecasts around 39.1 million Americans will travel by car**, representing 87% of all holiday travelers. That will create a meaningful near-term lift in gas demand, especially from Thursday through Monday. EIA notes that gas demand typically rises into the summer driving season, while last year's Memorial Day period coincided with the highest weekly implied gas demand of 2025 up to that point. So, in an already tight gas market, a busy **Memorial Day driving weekend can certainly pull more barrels through the system**, support pump prices, and may only lead to higher prices if no Hormuz resolution is found in the near term. **The demand destruction level sits around $5.** ### 相关股票 - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XOP.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XES.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VDE.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UCO.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM.US.md) - [RY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/RY.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JPM-J.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [伊拉克 4 月原油出口环比下降近 47%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286856360.md) - [原油分析：三角形整理中的地缘博弈](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287105510.md) - [多家银行上调代销原油基金风险等级](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286872385.md) - [三艘超级油轮突破封锁，成功穿越霍尔木兹海峡](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287110520.md) - [前白宫顾问警告：石油危机正逼近美国，美债收益率恐全线失控](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287095779.md)