<p>日元对美元仍然承压，但在几个主要的日元交叉汇率中开始出现警告信号。尽管美元/日元继续在多个月高位附近交易，但日本财政部（MOF）再次干预的风险正在上升。同时，澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元在维持看涨动能方面遇到困难，增加了日元重新走强的潜力。以下是美元/日元、澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元的最新技术展望。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：ICE</em></p>
<p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如何阅读 COT 报告以跟踪外汇市场情绪</li>
<li>美元动能逆转，日元多头的案例上升 | COT 报告</li>
<li>澳元展望：随着通胀风险上升，AUD/USD 回调开始</li>
<li>美元回调暂时搁置，多头瞄准 99，AUD/USD 空头磨刀霍霍</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元/日元技术分析：美元对日元</h2>
<h3>美元/日元反弹面临 MOF 干预风险</h3>
<p>更广泛的美元环境可能仍然支持，但我也怀疑美元/日元的上行空间可能有限，因为再次干预的风险上升。日本官员继续警告市场可能采取进一步行动，自 4 月 30 日以来已经至少干预过两次。因此，我不会排除当局再次出手的可能性，这将使日元对其主要货币大幅升值，尽管美元整体强势。</p>
<p>美元/日元连续第七天收高——这是自 2024 年 6 月以来最强的看涨走势。日线相对强弱指数（RSI）也在超买区域停滞了几个交易日，这表明该货币对的上行潜力有限，甚至可能出现回调。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>美元/日元 1 小时图显示波动性上升</h3>
<p>尽管 1 小时图仍显示出稳固的上升趋势，但在周二的高点附近，双向波动性有所增加。随着美元/日元在 159 附近停滞，以及附近的 159.52 日高，空头可能会试图在此处抑制反弹。由于再次干预的风险仍然存在，多头至少可能希望谨慎交易——尽管如果时机把握得当，空头最终可能会笑到最后。</p>
<p>请注意 158 附近的高成交量节点（HVN）和每周支点，这可能提供一个临时支撑区。跌破该区域将使 157 附近（接近每周 S1）和 156.36 附近的另一个成交量节点成为焦点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<h2>澳元/日元技术分析：澳元对日元</h2>
<h3>澳元/日元日线图发出潜在反转信号</h3>
<p>更广泛地说，澳元的动能正在转向，因此 AUD/JPY 也在突破新高方面遇到困难，这一点非常明显。跟踪多个货币对相对于单一货币的表现可以帮助交易者更好地评估反转的潜力，我在最近几周标记了 AUD 货币对回调的几个警告信号。</p>
<p>日线图显示，AUD/JPY 上周仅勉强创出新高，并且在动能转向下行之前也未能测试 115。周二的看跌外包日暗示当前的下行趋势可能尚未结束，使得 50 日指数移动平均线（112.43）、112 附近和 111.30 的低点成为空头关注的焦点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>澳元/日元 1 小时图显示空头保持控制</h3>
<p>1 小时图显示出看跌趋势，尽管价格正在回调上涨。下跌期间的成交量上升，而反弹期间的成交量下降，表明空头仍然掌控局面。价格也保持在每周 VWAP 之下，而 VWAP 本身正在下行。</p>
<p>因此，偏向于在阻力区域附近抑制反弹，假设 AUD/JPY 将突破新低并朝向更低的技术水平发展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<h2>瑞士法郎/日元技术分析：瑞士法郎对日元</h2>
<p>如果你放远一点看，会发现瑞士法郎/日元的更广泛上升趋势始于 2000 年 9 月。然而，其最近的主要低点形成于 2025 年 2 月——在外汇市场标准下，这并不算太久。自今年 2 月以来，瑞士法郎/日元大致保持横盘，价格大多在 200-204 区间内波动。</p>
<p>由于未知原因，瑞士法郎反复难以维持在 204 以上的涨幅。瑞士法郎/日元在 4 月 21 日刚刚突破这一水平，形成了一个小的射击之星，随后看跌动能加速。日本财政部（MOF）怀疑的干预随后将价格压回到区间的低点。最近，周二在 202.55 附近的看跌蜡烛暗示可能形成了一个潜在的低高点，这可能标志着从干预低点反弹的结束。</p>
<ul>
<li>我对瑞士法郎/日元的看法仍然看跌，只要价格保持在周一的高点之下。</li>
<li>空头可能会在周二的区间内抑制反弹，以改善潜在的风险回报比。</li>
<li>跌破 201 将使 200 附近的价格成为焦点，接近之前拥堵区的高成交量节点（HVN）。</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
<p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

澳元 做多 - CurrencyShares

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2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>日元对美元承压，日本财政部干预的风险上升。USD/JPY 接近多个月来的高点，但随着 AUD/JPY 和 CHF/JPY 显示出疲软迹象，日元走强的潜力正在增加。技术分析显示，USD/JPY 的上行空间有限，而 AUD/JPY 和 CHF/JPY 呈现看跌趋势，这表明交易者在波动和潜在反转的情况下应谨慎行事</p>

<p>The Japanese yen remains under pressure against the US dollar, but warning signs are beginning to emerge across several key yen crosses. While USD/JPY continues to trade near multi-month highs, the risks of another intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) are rising. At the same time, AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY are struggling to sustain bullish momentum, increasing the potential for broader yen strength to re-emerge. Here is the latest technical outlook for USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元对美元仍然承压，但在几个主要的日元交叉汇率中开始出现警告信号。尽管美元/日元继续在多个月高位附近交易，但日本财政部（MOF）再次干预的风险正在上升。同时，澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元在维持看涨动能方面遇到困难，增加了日元重新走强的潜力。以下是美元/日元、澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元的最新技术展望。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：ICE</em></p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment</li>
<li>US Dollar Momentum Reverses, Case for Yen Longs Rises | COT Report</li>
<li>Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Pullback Begins as Inflation Risks Rise</li>
<li>USD Pullback Put on Ice as Bulls Eye 99, AUD/USD Bears Sharpen Their Claws</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如何阅读 COT 报告以跟踪外汇市场情绪</li>
<li>美元动能逆转，日元多头的案例上升 | COT 报告</li>
<li>澳元展望：随着通胀风险上升，AUD/USD 回调开始</li>
<li>美元回调暂时搁置，多头瞄准 99，AUD/USD 空头磨刀霍霍</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元技术分析：美元对日元</h2>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Rally Faces MOF Intervention Risks</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元/日元反弹面临 MOF 干预风险</h3>
</div><p>The broader US dollar environment may remain supportive, but I also suspect upside for USD/JPY could be limited due to the rising risk of another MOF intervention. Japanese officials continue to warn markets of further action, having already intervened at least twice since April 30. Therefore, I would not discount the potential for authorities to step in again and send the Japanese yen sharply higher against its peers, to the detriment of USD/JPY despite broader US dollar strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的美元环境可能仍然支持，但我也怀疑美元/日元的上行空间可能有限，因为再次干预的风险上升。日本官员继续警告市场可能采取进一步行动，自 4 月 30 日以来已经至少干预过两次。因此，我不会排除当局再次出手的可能性，这将使日元对其主要货币大幅升值，尽管美元整体强势。</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY closed higher for a seventh consecutive day — its strongest bullish run since June 2024. The daily RSI (2) has also remained stuck in overbought territory for several sessions, which points to limited upside potential or even a pullback in the pair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元连续第七天收高——这是自 2024 年 6 月以来最强的看涨走势。日线相对强弱指数（RSI）也在超买区域停滞了几个交易日，这表明该货币对的上行潜力有限，甚至可能出现回调。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>USD/JPY 1-Hour Chart Shows Rising Two-Way Volatility</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元/日元 1 小时图显示波动性上升</h3>
</div><p>While the 1-hour chart still shows a solid uptrend, two-way volatility has increased around Tuesday’s highs. And with USD/JPY stalling around 159 alongside the nearby 159.52 daily high, bears may be looking to fade rallies from here. With the risk of another MOF intervention lingering, bulls may at least want to trade with caution — though if timed correctly, bears could ultimately get the last laugh.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 1 小时图仍显示出稳固的上升趋势，但在周二的高点附近，双向波动性有所增加。随着美元/日元在 159 附近停滞，以及附近的 159.52 日高，空头可能会试图在此处抑制反弹。由于再次干预的风险仍然存在，多头至少可能希望谨慎交易——尽管如果时机把握得当，空头最终可能会笑到最后。</p>
</div><p>Note the high-volume node (HVN) just beneath the 158 handle and weekly pivot point, which could provide an interim support zone. A break beneath it brings the 157 handle (near weekly S1) and another volume node around 156.36 into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意 158 附近的高成交量节点（HVN）和每周支点，这可能提供一个临时支撑区。跌破该区域将使 157 附近（接近每周 S1）和 156.36 附近的另一个成交量节点成为焦点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳元/日元技术分析：澳元对日元</h2>
</div><h3>AUD/JPY Daily Chart Signals Potential Reversal</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>澳元/日元日线图发出潜在反转信号</h3>
</div><p>Momentum has been turning against the Australian dollar more broadly, so the fact that AUD/JPY is also struggling to break to fresh highs is quite telling. Tracking several pairs against a single currency can help traders better assess the potential for reversals, and I have flagged several warning signs of a pullback for AUD pairs in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛地说，澳元的动能正在转向，因此 AUD/JPY 也在突破新高方面遇到困难，这一点非常明显。跟踪多个货币对相对于单一货币的表现可以帮助交易者更好地评估反转的潜力，我在最近几周标记了 AUD 货币对回调的几个警告信号。</p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows AUD/JPY only managed a marginal new high last week and also struggled to test 115 before momentum turned lower. Tuesday’s bearish outside day suggests the current leg lower may not yet be complete, bringing the 50-day EMA (112.43), the 112 handle, and the 111.30 low into focus for bears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，AUD/JPY 上周仅勉强创出新高，并且在动能转向下行之前也未能测试 115。周二的看跌外包日暗示当前的下行趋势可能尚未结束，使得 50 日指数移动平均线（112.43）、112 附近和 111.30 的低点成为空头关注的焦点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>AUD/JPY 1-Hour Chart Shows Bears Retain Control</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>澳元/日元 1 小时图显示空头保持控制</h3>
</div><p>The 1-hour chart shows a bearish trend, although prices are retracing higher. Volumes are rising during declines and falling during bounces, suggesting bears remain in control. Prices also remain beneath the weekly VWAP, which is itself trending lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 小时图显示出看跌趋势，尽管价格正在回调上涨。下跌期间的成交量上升，而反弹期间的成交量下降，表明空头仍然掌控局面。价格也保持在每周 VWAP 之下，而 VWAP 本身正在下行。</p>
</div><p>The bias is therefore to fade rallies around resistance zones on the assumption AUD/JPY will break to fresh lows and head towards lower technical levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，偏向于在阻力区域附近抑制反弹，假设 AUD/JPY 将突破新低并朝向更低的技术水平发展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>CHF/JPY Technical Analysis: Swiss Franc vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>瑞士法郎/日元技术分析：瑞士法郎对日元</h2>
</div><p>If you zoom out far enough, it becomes clear that CHF/JPY’s broader uptrend began around September 2000. However, its most recent major trough formed in February 2025 — which, by FX market standards, was not that long ago. Since February this year, CHF/JPY has largely traded sideways, with prices mostly contained within the 200–204 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你放远一点看，会发现瑞士法郎/日元的更广泛上升趋势始于 2000 年 9 月。然而，其最近的主要低点形成于 2025 年 2 月——在外汇市场标准下，这并不算太久。自今年 2 月以来，瑞士法郎/日元大致保持横盘，价格大多在 200-204 区间内波动。</p>
</div><p>For reasons unknown, the Swiss franc has repeatedly struggled to sustain gains above 204. CHF/JPY topped just above this level on April 21, forming a small shooting star before bearish momentum accelerated. Suspected intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) then slammed prices back toward the lows of the range. More recently, Tuesday’s bearish candle near 202.55 suggests a potential lower high may have formed, which could mark an inflection point and the end of the choppy rebound from the intervention low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于未知原因，瑞士法郎反复难以维持在 204 以上的涨幅。瑞士法郎/日元在 4 月 21 日刚刚突破这一水平，形成了一个小的射击之星，随后看跌动能加速。日本财政部（MOF）怀疑的干预随后将价格压回到区间的低点。最近，周二在 202.55 附近的看跌蜡烛暗示可能形成了一个潜在的低高点，这可能标志着从干预低点反弹的结束。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>My bias for CHF/JPY remains bearish while prices remain beneath Monday’s high.</li>
<li>Bears may look to fade rallies within Tuesday’s range to improve the potential reward-to-risk ratio.</li>
<li>A break beneath 201 puts the 200 handle into focus, near the high-volume node (HVN) of a prior congestion zone.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>我对瑞士法郎/日元的看法仍然看跌，只要价格保持在周一的高点之下。</li>
<li>空头可能会在周二的区间内抑制反弹，以改善潜在的风险回报比。</li>
<li>跌破 201 将使 200 附近的价格成为焦点，接近之前拥堵区的高成交量节点（HVN）。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

日元前景：随着澳元兑日元和瑞士法郎兑日元走弱，美元兑日元可能面临反转风险