--- title: "美国的一个通胀恐惧指标刚刚达到自全球金融危机前以来的最高水平" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286977973.md" description: "美国国债 30 年期债券收益率上升至 5.20%，为近二十年来的最高水平，因通胀担忧可能促使中央银行加息。这一激增反映了更广泛的全球趋势，加拿大和欧洲也出现了类似的上涨。债券市场的动荡表明投资者情绪的转变，预计美联储可能在 2026 年早些时候加息。分析师警告称，收益率可能超过 5.5%，这对美国国债的传统安全资产地位构成挑战" datetime: "2026-05-19T23:50:12.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286977973.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286977973.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286977973.md) --- # 美国的一个通胀恐惧指标刚刚达到自全球金融危机前以来的最高水平 NEW YORK - Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated government bond rose to the highest level in almost two decades as investor concerns mount that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates. The 30-year yield rose as much as seven basis points to 5.20 per cent on May 19, a level last seen on the eve of the 2007 global financial crisis. The yields on 30-year bonds in Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and Switzerland all traded at their 12-month high on May 19. The sell-off spilled over into US stock markets. A bond yield is the annual return an investor receives on a bond, expressed as a percentage. While the bond’s interest payment (coupon) remains fixed, its yield fluctuates based on bond’s current market price. Rising inflation drives up interest rates, which erode the purchasing power of bonds’ fixed-income payments. This dynamic forces bond yields higher to compensate for the lost value, which results in a corresponding drop in the actual price of the bonds. Yields on government bonds have surged globally in recent weeks as a jump in energy prices caused by the Iran war adds to inflation fears, pushing traders to bet the Federal Reserve will hike rates as soon as 2026. Mounting deficits are also prompting investors to demand greater compensation to own longer-maturity debt. Persistently higher bond yields push up borrowing costs for governments, homeowners and businesses. The last time there was such turmoil in the bond market was in April 2025 when US President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs. The surge in bond yields then were cited as abig reason why Mr Trump later backed down from many of his most draconian proposals. Worryingly for bondholders, the sell-off on May 19 was not driven by a surge in oil prices – which crept lower on the day – or any individual catalyst. That speaks to a broader nervousness in the market as investors reappraise the clearing price for debt. The shift in market sentiment will soon confront incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh. Traders anticipate the Fed’s next move will be a rate increase, potentially as soon as the end of 2026. When the Iran war began in late February, they anticipated as many as three Fed cuts in 2026. “The market has swung to a clear hiking bias,” said Benjamin Schroeder, a senior rates strategist at ING. That’s because investors are “worried about energy price pressures morphing into something more than just a short-lived inflationary episode.” The 5 per cent level for 30-year US yields has been considered a “line in the sand” that would spark dip-buying by some investors. The recent moves are challenging that assumption, potentially signalling a new era for the US$31 trillion (S$39.7 trillion) Treasury market, widely considered the premier safe asset and a barometer for borrowing costs around the world. Barclays and Citigroup strategists have warned clients that yields may breach 5.5bper cent, levels last seen in 2004. And the head of BlackRock’s research unit is recommending investors reduce their exposure to developed-market government bonds – including Treasuries – in favor of stocks. A similar dynamic is playing out globally, with yields on 30-year UK government bonds approaching 6 per cent and Germany’s long-term borrowing rate trading at a 2011 high. In the US, it’s already feeding through to government financing costs. A mid-May auction of 30-year Treasuries was the first since 2007 to result in an interest rate of at least 5 per cent. Investor demand was unremarkable, even at that level. 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