--- title: "由于油价上涨和美国国债收益率压力，卢比创下 96.96/$的历史新低" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287051413.md" description: "印度卢比因油价高企和全球债券收益率上升而跌至每美元 96.96 的历史低点，市场对美国进一步加息的担忧加剧。自 2 月份伊朗战争开始以来，该货币已下跌超过 6%。分析师预测到 2026 年卢比将走弱，预期汇率在 95-100 之间。国有银行的美元销售帮助限制了卢比的下跌，而印度尼西亚中央银行则提高利率以支持其货币，反映出该地区因冲突而面临的压力" datetime: "2026-05-20T02:51:39.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287051413.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287051413.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287051413.md) --- # 由于油价上涨和美国国债收益率压力，卢比创下 96.96/$的历史新低 The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Wednesday as stalled US-Iran peace talks kept oil prices ​elevated, driving global bond yields higher and hurting equities ​amid fears of further central bank rate hikes. The rupee slid to ‌96.96 per dollar, breaching its previous record low of 96.6150 hit in the prior session, and ended the day at 96.82. The currency has fallen over 6% since the Iran war began in late February. Global bond markets extended their selloff as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further in 2026. Oil prices eased but stayed near $110 a barrel after US President Donald Trump said he may still strike Iran, a day after delaying an imminent attack to allow more ‌talks with Tehran. Higher energy prices and weak capital flows, compounded by rising bond yields, have raised fears of a steep balance of payments deficit for India this fiscal year. "No convincing resolution to the conflict is in sight yet. This exogenous energy shock has upset the macro-apple cart and kept the rupee under pressure," analysts at DBS said in a note. They have revised their ​forecast range for the rupee to a weaker 95-100 band for the remainder of 2026, compared ‌with 90-95 earlier. On the day, dollar sales by state-run banks - most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India - helped limit the ​rupee's ‌fall, traders said "There is constant (dollar) buying from clients while meaningful dollar supply is only ‌coming from the RBI, keeping INR dependent on interventions," a trader at private bank said. Signs of strain on account of the Iran war have emerged ‌elsewhere ​in the region ​as well. The central bank of Indonesia hiked rates by a larger-than-expected 50 bps to support the rupiah which, like the rupee, has ‌hit a series ​of record lows in recent days. ### 相关股票 - [EPI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/EPI.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/INDA.US.md) - [IMVP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IMVP.US.md) - [D05.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/D05.SG.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [美伊协议曙光 “浇灭” 百元油价 新兴市场股汇全线反攻](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287555466.md) - [欧洲债市：欧洲政府债券下跌 追随美国国债跌势](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288887208.md) - [美国 5 月季调后非农就业人口 17.2 万人，美国国债收益率直线拉升](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288864714.md) - [美国债市：国债全线上涨 油价下跌提供支撑](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288774964.md) - [美国债市：伊朗与以色列同意暂缓交火 国债收窄油价飙升引发的跌幅](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289105890.md)