Jefferies 解释称，导致卢比贬值的是每月的 SIP，而非 CAD
我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以总结文章信息。Jefferies 报告称，印度卢比近期的贬值主要是由于系统性投资计划（SIPs）带来的强劲国内资金流入，使得外国投资者能够退出一个昂贵的市场。卢比在 2026 年对美元贬值约 7%，成为表现最差的新兴市场货币之一。尽管如此，Jefferies 指出恢复的潜力，引用了历史上外资投资（FPI）在显著贬值后激增的趋势。当前账户赤字保持在低位，过去三年的平均值为 GDP 的 0.8%
The sharp fall in the Indian rupee in the last few months has mostly been triggered by strong domestic flows via the systematic investment plans (SIPs) that provided an exit route to foreign investors who wanted to encash their investments in an expensive market, suggests a recent note by Jefferies.
A potential valuation correction, artificial intelligence trade (AI) trade unwinding and the Strait of Hormuz opening for business, the note said, could stem these outflows.
"Not current account deficit (CAD), but all-time low capital flows is the culprit for INR pressure. Equity market driven outflows accounted for $78 billion over the last two years, as strong domestic flows provided an easy exit to foreign capital escaping an expensive market," wrote Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies in a coauthored note with Abhinav Sinha and Priyank Shah.
According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), net inflows into existing equity schemes climbed to a record ₹38,503 crore in March 2026 and stayed largely flat at ₹38,410 crore in April 2026. The previous high was recorded in October 2024, when existing schemes attracted net inflows of ₹37,840 crore, the data showed.
Rupee
Thus far in calendar year 2026 (CY260, the rupee has depreciated around 7 per cent against the US dollar to surpass the 96 mark and making it one of the worst performing emerging market (EM) currencies during this period.
However, there is hope.
Jefferies' analysis of past four episodes of sharp (over 10 per cent INR depreciation in 12-months) shows that the FPI flows can see a remarkable upsurge (3 of the 4 episodes) in the subsequent 12-months.
"Trend in Net FDI was mixed with Net FDI increasing and declining in 2 time each out of 4 episodes. The same can happen again if AI as the dominant global investment theme slows down. However, a weaker INR has not historically boosted exports.
FPI selling
Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), according to Jefferies' estimates, have sold a net $44 billion worth of Indian stocks since April 2024. Capital account surplus has thus declined to just around 0.5 per cent during FY25-26 (the lowest ever), versus 2.6% surplus during prior 10- years.
"Strong domestic flows (strong MF flows thanks to SIPs and tax advantage for equity investments, higher equity allocation by EPFO and NPS) continue to absorb heavy foreign selling in equity markets. Consequently, the balance of payments (BoP) was in negative during the past two years and another negative BoP year is in the offing," Nandurkar said.
Over the past three years (FY24–FY26), Jefferies estimates the India's current account deficit (CAD) to have averaged just 0.8% of GDP — its lowest level on record.
"We expect the FY27 CAD to remain comfortably contained below 2% of GDP, which remains a manageable level. Our base-case scenario factors in crude oil prices averaging US$90 per barrel (from June onward) and a 10% decline in gold imports," the note said.