<p>美元情绪连续第二周改善，期货交易者增加了看涨头寸，资产管理者将净多头头寸提升至 15 个月来的最高水平。同时，日元空头继续增加空头头寸，因为美元/日元回升至与日本财政部干预相关的水平。在其他方面，澳元多头在强劲反弹后削减了头寸，而对加元的看跌情绪加剧。</p>
<p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如何阅读 COT 报告以追踪外汇市场情绪</li>
<li>澳元前景：AUD/USD 延续涨势，但回调风险依然存在</li>
<li>外汇期货头寸：美元反弹停滞，日元空头回归 | COT 报告</li>
<li>黄金前景：和平希望支撑黄金，期权市场信号谨慎</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元获得支持，日元空头挑战干预风险</h2>
<h3>COT 报告中的大型投机者头寸</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="872" height="665" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>美元（DXY）：</strong> 上周净多头美元头寸增加了 59 亿美元，达到 150 亿美元，而资产管理者的净多头头寸提升至 16,200 份合约，创 15 个月新高。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 期货头寸基本保持不变，大型投机者持有 29,400 份净多头合约，资产管理者维持 270,000 份可观的净多头头寸。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 英镑的头寸变化不大，交易者将净空头头寸减少了约 4,000 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 高企的总空头头寸和持续高位的多头头寸表明对日元的情绪可能接近极端。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 大型投机者和资产管理者对瑞士法郎的净空头头寸减少了 3,700 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 上升的未平仓合约和下跌的加元期货价格表明加元仍面临下行风险，尽管 USD/CAD 日线图上的技术信号暗示短期内可能出现回调。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 澳元的净多头头寸在大型投机者和资产管理者中减少了 46,000 份合约，主要是由于该货币近期的多头平仓。</li>
</ul>
<h3>资产管理者头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="877" height="667" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>外汇期货头寸 | COT 报告（IMM 数据）</h2>
<h3>美元指数（DXY）期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p>在原油价格保持高位和相互矛盾的头条新闻继续模糊中东和平前景的情况下，构建过于看空美元的论点仍然困难。期货交易者似乎对此表示认同，上周将其有效的净多头美元头寸增加至 150 亿美元。59 亿美元的增幅标志着连续第二周的上升，也是七周以来最快的积累速度，将看涨头寸提升至七周来的最高水平。</p>
<p>按近期标准来看，这可以被视为美元多头中的情绪极端。然而，头寸数据表明，交易者在 2020 年至 2025 年间经常将净多头头寸推向 300 亿美元，表明当前的头寸尚未过度。</p>
<p>此外，大型投机者在美元指数（DXY）期货中转为净多头头寸，而资产管理者的净多头头寸也提升至 15 个月的新高。总体而言，最新的 COT 报告显示美元有坚实的支撑，几乎没有迹象表明看涨情绪已经达到极端。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1410" height="624" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，ICE，LSEG</em></p>
<h3>USD/JPY 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p>像许多交易者一样，我继续关注日元，担心日本财政部（MOF）可能再次干预。自当局首次干预外汇市场以来，已经过去一个多月，导致美元/日元在一个小时内下跌约 500 个点。</p>
<p>自那时以来，美元/日元已收复大部分损失，但期货交易者仍在不断增加日元空头。事实上，可以说日元期货的总空头头寸已接近情绪极端。正是由于总多头头寸仍然高企，净空头头寸尚未发出来自任何交易者群体的极端信号。</p>
<p>随着美元/日元交易仅在 160.00 下方 40 个点——这一水平被广泛视为 MOF 干预的潜在触发点——外汇交易者可能希望密切关注本周日本的发展，因为加剧波动的风险依然很高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1385" height="733" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p>上周对 USD/CAD 的净多头头寸在大型投机者中几乎翻倍，达到 69,000 份合约。净空头加元头寸增加了 37,600 份合约，这是近两年来最激进的周度变化，也是过去八周中最大的变化之一。资产管理者也首次转为净空头头寸，令其看跌加元的头寸达到今年的最高水平。</p>
<p>而这还在加拿大被揭示进入技术性衰退以及政府预算赤字大幅扩大之前。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，两组加元期货交易者都增加了空头头寸，同时减少了多头头寸，使得两组的净头寸均为净空。然而，双方都没有对加元发出情绪极端的信号。此外，尽管最近几周加元期货价格下跌，但未平仓合约数量却在上升，这表明新的空头头寸正在进入市场。这可能使得美元/加元在看涨者的 “逢低买入” 观察名单上，而美元仍然保持看涨的叙述。</p>
<p>尽管如此，美元/加元日线图在周期高点附近出现关键反转，加元期货周线图上出现旋转顶蜡烛形态，暗示短期内可能出现回调。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1387" height="762" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
<h3>澳元/美元期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p>上周，澳元期货交易者继续减少看涨头寸，尽管这一举动更多是由于平仓而非激进的卖空。大型投机者减少了 17,900 份多头合约，同时增加了相对温和的 3,500 份空头，这表明交易者在获利了结并降低风险，而不是建立明显的看跌押注。</p>
<p>多头减少与空头增加之间的不平衡非常显著。当交易者通过削减多头而不是积极建立空头来急于退出时，这通常表明市场处于修正阶段，而不是主要趋势反转的开始。这可能使得任何澳元/美元的回调相对有序，即使短期内下行风险依然存在。</p>
<p>在短暂探测到 73 美分以下后，回撤至 70 美分区域并不罕见，并且在更广泛的看涨框架内很容易发生。在这一阶段，期货头寸似乎更符合市场喘息的状态，而不是准备迎接持续看跌趋势的状态。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1498" height="559" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
<p>查看完整的 <em>经济日历</em></p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

GOLD

中金黄金

<p>美元的看涨情绪增强，期货交易者的净多头头寸增加至七周以来的最高水平，这得益于高企的油价和中东紧张局势。相反，日元空头在潜在的财政部干预水平附近增加了空头头寸，而加元空头在经济衰退消息后加剧。澳元多头在反弹后有所减持，欧元/黄金的头寸则基本保持稳定</p>

<p>US dollar sentiment improved for a second consecutive week, with futures traders increasing bullish exposure and asset managers lifting net-long positions to a 15-month high. At the same time, Japanese yen bears continued to add short exposure as USD/JPY edged back towards levels associated with Ministry of Finance intervention. Elsewhere, Australian dollar bulls trimmed exposure after a strong rally, while bearish sentiment towards the Canadian dollar intensified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元情绪连续第二周改善，期货交易者增加了看涨头寸，资产管理者将净多头头寸提升至 15 个月来的最高水平。同时，日元空头继续增加空头头寸，因为美元/日元回升至与日本财政部干预相关的水平。在其他方面，澳元多头在强劲反弹后削减了头寸，而对加元的看跌情绪加剧。</p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment</li>
<li>Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Extends Gains, But Pullback Risks Remain</li>
<li>FX Futures Positioning: Dollar Rebound Stalls as Yen Bears Return | COT Report</li>
<li>Gold Outlook: Peace Hopes Support Gold, Options Market Signals Caution</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如何阅读 COT 报告以追踪外汇市场情绪</li>
<li>澳元前景：AUD/USD 延续涨势，但回调风险依然存在</li>
<li>外汇期货头寸：美元反弹停滞，日元空头回归 | COT 报告</li>
<li>黄金前景：和平希望支撑黄金，期权市场信号谨慎</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>US Dollar Gains Support as Yen Bears Challenge Intervention Risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元获得支持，日元空头挑战干预风险</h2>
</div><h3>Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>COT 报告中的大型投机者头寸</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>US Dollar (DXY):</strong> Net-long US dollar exposure increased by $5.9 billion to $15 billion last week, while asset managers lifted net-long exposure to a 15-month high of 16.2k contracts.</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> Futures positioning was largely unchanged, with large speculators holding 29.4k net-long contracts and asset managers maintaining a sizeable 270k net-long position.</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> Positioning in the British pound saw little change, with traders reducing net-short exposure by around 4,000 contracts.</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> Elevated gross-short exposure alongside persistently high long positions suggests sentiment towards the Japanese yen may be approaching an extreme.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF:</strong> Combined net-short exposure to the Swiss franc declined by 3.7k contracts across large speculators and asset managers.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD:</strong> Rising open interest and falling Canadian dollar futures prices point to ongoing downside risks for the loonie, although technical signals on the USD/CAD daily chart suggest the potential for a near-term pullback.</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> Net-long Australian dollar exposure fell by a combined 46k contracts among large speculators and asset managers, driven primarily by long liquidation following the currency's recent</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>美元（DXY）：</strong> 上周净多头美元头寸增加了 59 亿美元，达到 150 亿美元，而资产管理者的净多头头寸提升至 16,200 份合约，创 15 个月新高。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 期货头寸基本保持不变，大型投机者持有 29,400 份净多头合约，资产管理者维持 270,000 份可观的净多头头寸。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 英镑的头寸变化不大，交易者将净空头头寸减少了约 4,000 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 高企的总空头头寸和持续高位的多头头寸表明对日元的情绪可能接近极端。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 大型投机者和资产管理者对瑞士法郎的净空头头寸减少了 3,700 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 上升的未平仓合约和下跌的加元期货价格表明加元仍面临下行风险，尽管 USD/CAD 日线图上的技术信号暗示短期内可能出现回调。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 澳元的净多头头寸在大型投机者和资产管理者中减少了 46,000 份合约，主要是由于该货币近期的多头平仓。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3>Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>资产管理者头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外汇期货头寸 | COT 报告（IMM 数据）</h2>
</div><h3>US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元指数（DXY）期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p>It remains difficult to construct an overly bearish case for the US dollar while crude oil prices remain elevated and conflicting headlines continue to cloud prospects for peace in the Middle East. Futures traders appear to agree, increasing their effective net-long exposure to the US dollar to $15 billion last week. The $5.9 billion increase marked a second consecutive weekly rise and the fastest pace of accumulation in seven weeks, lifting bullish exposure to its highest level in seven weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在原油价格保持高位和相互矛盾的头条新闻继续模糊中东和平前景的情况下，构建过于看空美元的论点仍然困难。期货交易者似乎对此表示认同，上周将其有效的净多头美元头寸增加至 150 亿美元。59 亿美元的增幅标志着连续第二周的上升，也是七周以来最快的积累速度，将看涨头寸提升至七周来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>By recent standards, this could be considered a sentiment extreme among US dollar bulls. However, positioning data show that traders regularly pushed net-long exposure towards $30 billion between 2020 and 2025, suggesting current positioning is not yet stretched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按近期标准来看，这可以被视为美元多头中的情绪极端。然而，头寸数据表明，交易者在 2020 年至 2025 年间经常将净多头头寸推向 300 亿美元，表明当前的头寸尚未过度。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, large speculators flipped to a net-long position in US Dollar Index (DXY) futures, while asset managers increased their net-long exposure to a 15-month high. Overall, the latest COT report points to firm support for the US dollar, with few signs that bullish sentiment has yet reached an extreme.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，大型投机者在美元指数（DXY）期货中转为净多头头寸，而资产管理者的净多头头寸也提升至 15 个月的新高。总体而言，最新的 COT 报告显示美元有坚实的支撑，几乎没有迹象表明看涨情绪已经达到极端。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，ICE，LSEG</em></p>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/JPY 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p>Like many traders, I have continued to monitor the Japanese yen, wary of another intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF). It has been over a month since authorities first intervened in the currency market, sending USD/JPY down around 500 pips within an hour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像许多交易者一样，我继续关注日元，担心日本财政部（MOF）可能再次干预。自当局首次干预外汇市场以来，已经过去一个多月，导致美元/日元在一个小时内下跌约 500 个点。</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY has since recouped most of those losses, yet futures traders have continued to pile into yen shorts. In fact, it could be argued that gross-short exposure in Japanese yen futures is at, or very near, a sentiment extreme. It is only because gross-long exposure remains elevated that net-short positioning is not yet signalling an extreme from either group of traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，美元/日元已收复大部分损失，但期货交易者仍在不断增加日元空头。事实上，可以说日元期货的总空头头寸已接近情绪极端。正是由于总多头头寸仍然高企，净空头头寸尚未发出来自任何交易者群体的极端信号。</p>
</div><p>With USD/JPY trading just 40 pips below 160.00—a level widely viewed as a potential trigger for MOF intervention—forex traders may want to keep a close eye on developments in Japan this week, as the risk of heightened volatility remains elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美元/日元交易仅在 160.00 下方 40 个点——这一水平被广泛视为 MOF 干预的潜在触发点——外汇交易者可能希望密切关注本周日本的发展，因为加剧波动的风险依然很高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/CAD 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p>Net-long exposure to USD/CAD effectively doubled last week to 69,000 contracts among large speculators. The 37,600-contract increase in net-short Canadian dollar exposure was the most aggressive weekly shift in nearly two years, and one of the largest seen in the past eight. Asset managers also flipped to a net-short position for the first time in six weeks, taking their bearish Canadian dollar exposure to its highest level this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周对 USD/CAD 的净多头头寸在大型投机者中几乎翻倍，达到 69,000 份合约。净空头加元头寸增加了 37,600 份合约，这是近两年来最激进的周度变化，也是过去八周中最大的变化之一。资产管理者也首次转为净空头头寸，令其看跌加元的头寸达到今年的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>And this was before it was revealed that Canada had entered a technical recession and that the government's budget deficit had widened sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而这还在加拿大被揭示进入技术性衰退以及政府预算赤字大幅扩大之前。</p>
</div><p>Notably, both groups of CAD futures traders increased short positions while reducing longs, leaving both cohorts net-short. Yet neither is signalling a sentiment extreme for the Canadian dollar. Furthermore, open interest has been rising while Canadian dollar futures prices have fallen in recent weeks, suggesting fresh short positions are entering the market. That could keep USD/CAD on the 'buy the dip' watchlist for bulls while the US dollar retains its bullish narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，两组加元期货交易者都增加了空头头寸，同时减少了多头头寸，使得两组的净头寸均为净空。然而，双方都没有对加元发出情绪极端的信号。此外，尽管最近几周加元期货价格下跌，但未平仓合约数量却在上升，这表明新的空头头寸正在进入市场。这可能使得美元/加元在看涨者的 “逢低买入” 观察名单上，而美元仍然保持看涨的叙述。</p>
</div><p>That said, a key reversal on the USD/CAD daily chart near cycle highs, combined with a spinning top doji on the Canadian dollar futures weekly chart, hints at the potential for a near-term pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，美元/加元日线图在周期高点附近出现关键反转，加元期货周线图上出现旋转顶蜡烛形态，暗示短期内可能出现回调。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
</div><h3>AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>澳元/美元期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p>AUD futures traders continued to pare back bullish exposure last week, although the move was driven far more by long liquidation than aggressive short selling. Large speculators reduced gross longs by 17.9k contracts while adding a comparatively modest 3.5k shorts, suggesting traders were taking profits and reducing risk rather than establishing outright bearish bets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，澳元期货交易者继续减少看涨头寸，尽管这一举动更多是由于平仓而非激进的卖空。大型投机者减少了 17,900 份多头合约，同时增加了相对温和的 3,500 份空头，这表明交易者在获利了结并降低风险，而不是建立明显的看跌押注。</p>
</div><p>The imbalance between falling longs and rising shorts is notable. When traders rush to the exits by cutting longs rather than aggressively building shorts, it often points to a corrective phase rather than the start of a major trend reversal. That could leave any AUD/USD pullback relatively orderly, even if near-term downside risks remain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多头减少与空头增加之间的不平衡非常显著。当交易者通过削减多头而不是积极建立空头来急于退出时，这通常表明市场处于修正阶段，而不是主要趋势反转的开始。这可能使得任何澳元/美元的回调相对有序，即使短期内下行风险依然存在。</p>
</div><p>After briefly probing just below 73 cents, a retreat towards the 70-cent area would not be unusual and could easily unfold within a broader bullish framework. At this stage, futures positioning appears more consistent with a market taking a breather than one preparing for a sustained bearish trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短暂探测到 73 美分以下后，回撤至 70 美分区域并不罕见，并且在更广泛的看涨框架内很容易发生。在这一阶段，期货头寸似乎更符合市场喘息的状态，而不是准备迎接持续看跌趋势的状态。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的 <em>经济日历</em></p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

外汇期货持仓：美元多头回归，日元空头挑衅日本财务省