--- title: "伊朗发生新冲突后油价飙升——大宗商品综述" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288301874.md" description: "油价因美国与伊朗的冲突重新升级以及外交谈判的暂停而上涨超过 6%，布伦特原油价格达到每桶 97.27 美元。地缘政治紧张局势也推动了欧洲天然气和铜期货的上涨，而由于美元走强，黄金价格下跌。相反，玉米期货因管理基金减少多头头寸而下跌，牛肉价格因对新世界螺蛳虫逼近美国边境的担忧而上涨" datetime: "2026-06-01T15:55:43.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288301874.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288301874.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288301874.md) --- # 伊朗发生新冲突后油价飙升——大宗商品综述 MARKET MOVEMENTS: \--Brent crude oil is up 6.8% to $97.27 a barrel. \--European benchmark gas is up 6.7% to 49.07 euros a megawatt-hour. \--Copper futures are up 1.6% to $13,832 a metric ton. \--Gold futures are down 2.1% to $4,496.70 a troy ounce. TOP STORY: Oil Surges After New Iran Clashes Oil prices are vaulting higher Monday after new clashes between the U.S. and Iran signaled that the diplomatic path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be rocky. The surge in futures markets clawed back much of last week's declines. Benchmark U.S. futures rose around 7%, nearing $94 a barrel, while Brent recently traded at roughly $97 a barrel. Gasoline and diesel futures also climbed. MARKET TALKS: Gold Slides 2% on Firmer Dollar, Rising Crude -- Market Talk 1526 GMT - Gold prices extend losses as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and uncertainty over the outlook of negotiations pushed the dollar and crude prices higher. Futures in New York are down 2.1% at $4,495.30 a troy ounce. "Historically, gold performs best during periods of financial stress or economic weakness when inflation concerns are accompanied by falling real yields and a weakening dollar. The current situation is different," says Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank. "A supply-driven energy shock pushes inflation higher while simultaneously supporting yields and the dollar." U.S. interest-rate expectations remain a key driver for the precious metals market. However, analysts expect that once geopolitical tensions ease, investor focus will likely return to the longer-term structural factors that have supported gold's bull market in recent years. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- Cattle Higher as New World Screwworm Creeps Closer to Border -- Market Talk 1024 ET - Cases of New World Screwworm in animals are drawing nearer to the U.S.-Mexico border, which is giving cattle futures on the CME a boost in early trading. Reports of the finding surfaced on Friday, with the USDA confirming that sheep were found 31 miles away from the border with screwworm. This is raising alarm bells even on increased investment in mitigation measures along the border, with facilities being opened in Texas. Most-active live cattle futures are up 0.9% in morning trade, while lean hog futures are up 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com) \-- Oil Extends Gains on Report Iran Is Halting Talks -- Market Talk 0955 ET - Crude futures extend gains on a report that Iran is halting talks with the U.S. through mediators in protest against Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Prices were higher after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes at the weekend, while efforts toward an agreement continued. Iran's Tasnim news agency says on X that due to "continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, and given that Lebanon was part of the preconditions for the ceasefire, Iran will halt the exchange of talks and messages through the intermediary with the United States." WTI is up 6.5% at $93.03 a barrel and Brent gains 5.5% at $96.13. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com) \-- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Return Some Gains -- Market Talk 0934 ET - U.S. natural gas futures pull back from overnight highs while maintaining support from higher temperature forecasts moving into June. "With weather heating up at this early stage of the cooling cycle, the market is forced to conjure up an increased possibility of a hot summer," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The firm sees little resistance up to $3.50/mmBtu. Also slightly bullish is a pickup in natural gas exports while production gains are modest, the firm adds. Nymex natural gas is off 2.4% at $3.211/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com) \-- Corn Down After Funds Cut Long Positions -- Market Talk 0937 ET - Long contracts in grain futures held by managed money saw a sizable drop in Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC. In its report covering holdings through May 26, the CFTC says that these funds reduced their long holdings by over 58,000 contracts, while adding nearly 30,000 short contracts. Traders remain net long in corn, meaning that there's more room for selling -- with the net long still at over 205,000 contracts. "There is still a large speculative long in the corn market with no immediate supply problems," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. Most-active corn is down 0.2% overnight, while soybeans rise 0.4% and wheat is up 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com) \-- Oil Futures Rise With U.S., Iran Yet to Reach Agreement -- Market Talk 0847 ET - Oil futures are higher as the weekend passes without the U.S. and Iran reaching an agreement while the two sides exchange strikes. "Although both sides exchanged revised proposals, the absence of a clear breakthrough and renewed incidents in the region reinforced concerns that restrictions affecting the Strait of Hormuz could remain in place for longer than previously expected," Joseph Dahrieh of Tickmill says in a note. "While a successful agreement could eventually help push prices down, the reopening of shipping routes and normalization of energy flows would likely be gradual." WTI is up 2.9% at $89.90 a barrel and Brent rises 2.3% to $93.23. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com) \-- Goldman Lifts End-2026 Copper Forecast on Supply Disruptions, Strong U.S. Imports -- Market Talk 0755 GMT - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper price forecast to $13,735 a metric ton from $12,465 previously, citing a worsening supply outlook and tighter market balances outside the U.S. The bank cut its 2026 global mine supply outlook by 350,000 tons after disruptions at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as neither is set to return to full capacity until 2028. Stronger U.S. copper imports also exceeded expectations, prompting Goldman to sharply increase its projected copper deficit outside the U.S. market to 640,000 tons from 60,000 tons previously in 2026. Goldman expects the market to stay supported by structural demand from electrification and energy-transition projects, although U.S. tariff policy remains a key risk for prices. In early trading, three-month LME futures rise 0.7% to $13,714 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- Gold Falls on Firmer Dollar, U.S.-Iran Deal Uncertainty -- Market Talk 0743 GMT - Gold prices fall more than 1% on a firmer dollar and rising crude futures after the U.S. and Iran traded fresh strikes over the weekend. Futures in New York are down 1.2% to $4,536.90 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is up 0.1% to 98.97. Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Monday, fueling concerns over inflationary pressures and interest-rate hikes. "The price action highlights the market's ongoing struggle to balance the inflationary implications of elevated energy prices--which tend to support the dollar and bond yields--against longer-term bullish drivers such as de-dollarization, fiscal debt concerns, and persistent central bank demand," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Investors are now closely watching developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and upcoming U.S. jobs data for further clues on the interest-rate outlook and broader market sentiment. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \-- European Energy Stocks Rise as Oil Outlook Continues to Concern Investors -- Market Talk 0719 GMT - European energy stocks rise in opening trade as oil prices move higher. Oil continues to concern investors as hopes for a breakthrough in talks between the U.S. and Iran run into fresh uncertainty, Hargreaves Lansdown's Matt Britzman writes. The two countries exchanged fresh blows over the weekend, with the U.S. attacking what it said were air-defense radar and drone sites. This pushes Brent futures up nearly 3% to $93.82 a barrel and WTI up 3.2% at $90.12 a barrel. In London, Shell is up 1.1%, BP rises 0.7% and Harbour Energy moves 2.2% higher. France's TotalEnergies, Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni all rise around 1%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com) \-- Aluminum Bull Says $4,000/Ton Reasonable, But Questions China Risk -- Market Talk 0517 GMT - Aluminum reaching $4,000/metric ton in the near term doesn't seem unreasonable given disruptions to Middle East supply, says Jefferies analyst Chris LaFemina. Still, the bull case for aluminum depends on production not rising elsewhere in the world, he says. "I think one of the potentially offsetting arguments to the bulls would be: what happens if China ramps up domestic smelting?" says LaFemina, who says he sits in the bull camp himself. China has in recent years had a 45-million-ton production cap. "It's notable to me that the risk around a capacity overhang in China ultimately being unleashed via policy shift is something people don't seem to be really considering," he says. "And I do think that's something they really need to at least think about." LME aluminum trades at $3,678 a metric ton. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle) \-- China Expected to Exceed Aluminum Output Cap This Year, But Just Slightly -- Market Talk 0451 GMT - China is forecast to produce about 45.3 million metric tons of aluminum this year, a tad above a government cap of 45 million tons introduced in 2017 to curb overcapacity, says Wood Mackenzie analyst Charvi Trivedi. "This year we believe that they will surpass this number because the profitability is too good in China right now and they have a lot of export opportunities," she says. That is because of disruptions to supply from the Middle East, historically a major global exporter. Trivedi says the 45 million ton cap "is not a hard number" and that China does have "some leeway" to exceed that figure, though adds that any small increase would likely be temporary. "They can't keep on going higher and higher," she says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle) \-- Iron Ore Falls on Ample Supply -- Market Talk (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires June 01, 2026 11:50 ET (15:50 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相关股票 - [TECK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TECK.US.md) - [AEM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AEM.US.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [KGC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/KGC.US.md) - [600547.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600547.CN.md) - [FCX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/FCX.US.md) - [SCCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SCCO.US.md) - [600362.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600362.CN.md) - [ERO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ERO.US.md) - [600489.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600489.CN.md) - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NEM.US.md) - [601899.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/601899.CN.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md) - [CORN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CORN.US.md) - [DBB.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DBB.US.md) - [DBP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DBP.US.md) - [UUP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UUP.US.md) - [UNG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UNG.US.md) - [BOIL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BOIL.US.md) - [CPER.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CPER.US.md) - [GSG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GSG.US.md) - [DBC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DBC.US.md) - [03097.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/03097.HK.md) - [BCI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BCI.US.md) - [03175.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/03175.HK.md) - [FCG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/FCG.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [UDN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UDN.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAU.US.md) - [DBA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DBA.US.md) - [UNL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UNL.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UGL.US.md) - [GLTR.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GLTR.US.md) - [USDU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USDU.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GLD.US.md) - [HGER.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/HGER.US.md) - [PDBC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/PDBC.US.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/518850.CN.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UCO.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [CME.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CME.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [江西铜业股份转仓市值总计 9.22 亿港元 占比 2.04% 从花旗银行转出 2611.33 万股](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289528290.md) - [突然，大幅减仓 43609 手！净多头 “集体撤退”，油市生变？](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289657128.md) - [美伊停火利好兑现与 SpaceX 上市，黄金走势迎双重考验](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289564672.md) - [油市 “地缘溢价” 撑不了太久？高盛：供应过剩格局下，2027 年布油将回落至 80 美元](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289619476.md) - [美国战略石油储备出口创历史新高，九成流向欧洲](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289634706.md)