--- title: "野村控股因盈利能力强劲，将 2027 年 3 月 Nifty 指数目标上调至 25,900 点" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288364918.md" description: "野村控股将 2027 年 3 月的 Nifty 50 目标上调至 25,900，理由是企业盈利强劲和估值具有吸引力。尽管西亚冲突和高油价带来了风险，导致 2027/28 财年的盈利下调，野村认为当前价格已反映这些风险。该券商偏好出口商、制药、动力设备、金融和 IT 服务，同时对汽车和消费品可选行业保持谨慎" datetime: "2026-06-01T20:43:31.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288364918.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288364918.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288364918.md) --- # 野村控股因盈利能力强劲，将 2027 年 3 月 Nifty 指数目标上调至 25,900 点 Nomura has raised its March 2027 target for the Nifty 50 to 25,900, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and attractive market valuations despite risks stemming from the ongoing West Asia conflict and elevated oil prices. The brokerage had earlier set a target of 24,900 for December 2026. The latest target implies 11 per cent upside from the current Nifty level of around 23,287. Nomura India equity strategist Saion Mukherjee said aggregate profit after tax (PAT) for a universe of 256 companies rose 18 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the March quarter of FY26, beating consensus estimates by 12 per cent. The energy sector, including oil and gas, power, coal and power equipment companies, accounted for nearly 60 per cent of the earnings surprise, while banks and non-banking financial companies also contributed meaningfully. According to Nomura, the strong earnings performance was supported by a recovery in economic activity following tax cuts and a favourable monetary policy environment. Sales growth, excluding financials and commodities, stood at 15 per cent, although Ebitda growth of 6 per cent indicated some pressure on margins. Despite the robust quarterly performance, Nomura flagged a more challenging earnings outlook as the West Asia conflict and higher commodity prices begin to weigh on corporate profitability. "Since the start of the West Asia war in end-February 2026, aggregate earnings for FY27/28 have been revised lower by 4 per cent/1 per cent," Mukherjee noted. He added that consensus now expects an 11 per cent earnings CAGR over FY26-28, broadly in line with nominal GDP growth, implying limited scope for further expansion in the earnings-to-GDP ratio. The brokerage cautioned that further downgrades cannot be ruled out if oil prices remain elevated. Even so, Nomura believes much of the risk is already reflected in valuations. The Nifty currently trades at 18.1 times one-year-forward earnings, near the lower end of its four-year trading range of 18-20 times, it observed. The brokerage expects two key catalysts to determine market direction over the remainder of FY27. "We expect that a drop in oil prices and increased traction for IT services from implementation of AI by enterprises will be key catalysts to watch out for through rest of FY27F," the report said. On sector allocation, the brokerage continues to favour exporters with established global franchises, including auto component makers, pharmaceutical companies and power equipment manufacturers. It also sees opportunities in financials and IT services due to attractive valuations and the potential benefits from enterprise AI adoption. At the same time, it turned bearish on automobiles and consumer discretionary sectors, citing expectations of slower earnings growth, while downgrading cement to neutral because of cost pressures. The brokerage also remains cautious on consumption-linked sectors, warning of slowing growth and margin pressure amid a constrained fiscal backdrop. ### 相关股票 - [NMR.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NMR.US.md) - [8604.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/8604.JP.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [野村控股业绩创新高后乘胜追击！长期盈利目标上调 50% ROE 冲击 12%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287902831.md) - [野村高管上个财年薪酬平均上调 40% 约为上一财年涨幅的两倍](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287987268.md) - [中国消费品出海从拼低价变做品牌](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289666457.md) - [高光制药冲刺港股：第一季净亏 7312 万 梁从新持股近 18%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289138381.md) - [互联网巨头涌入 AI 制药：字节、百度、腾讯、阿里、京东做出了不同选择](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289523497.md)