<p>【雅加达】印尼市场在周四（6 月 4 日）大幅下跌，印尼盾突破每美元 18,000 的关键水平，股市跌至近六年来的最低点，政策不确定性和宏观经济逆风令投资者感到恐慌。</p>
<p>印尼盾下跌幅度达到 0.6%，今年累计损失约为 8%，而基准雅加达综合指数下跌 5%，跌至 2020 年 12 月以来的最低点，随后有所回升。这两项资产是今年亚洲表现最差的。债券也出现下跌。</p>
<p>此次抛售发生在投资者对普拉博沃·苏比安托总统领导下印尼经济前景和财政状况愈发谨慎之际。高企的油价进一步加重了政府财政压力，而对商品出口可能加大国家干预、评级压力以及即将到来的 MSCI 重新分类决定的担忧，使资金退居一旁。</p>
<p>BCA Sekuritas 的分析师费利克斯·达尔曼表示：“此次抛售主要是由于印尼盾疲软创下历史新低，以及贸易平衡趋软的压力，尤其是油品进口增加。” 他补充道：“投资者对政策风险的担忧也在加剧，包括大规模免费餐饮计划和潜在的评级压力等问题，这对整体信心造成了影响。”</p>
<p>这些担忧在周三表现得尤为明显，当时股市跌至五年来的最低点，尽管缺乏新的催化剂，印尼盾再次创下历史新低。这一滑坡凸显了市场情绪的脆弱，投资者在缺乏任何触发因素的情况下迅速撤回资金。本周印尼营养局局长的突然解雇——该局是普拉博沃免费餐饮计划的核心——以及随后的腐败调查进一步加剧了不安。</p>
<p>当地证券交易所采取措施安抚投资者的情绪，其代理首席执行官在周四表示，监管机构 “强烈期望” MSCI 维持该国的新兴市场地位，并且其基本面依然强劲。</p>
<p>这些宏观担忧最明显的表现之一是当地货币的表现，今年以来印尼盾屡创新低，导致中央银行多次进行干预。BNP Paribas SA、MUFG 银行和 Mega Capital Sekuritas 预计印尼央行可能在本月加息。</p>
<p>周四，印尼央行确认已介入外汇市场，副行长德斯特里·达玛扬蒂在一条短信中表示，央行将 “加大干预力度”，以确保市场正常运作，并保持印尼盾的稳定，符合基本面。</p>
<p>如果印尼盾突破 18,000 的水平，可能会加速外资从当地股票和债券的流出，这一水平已成为政策制定者恢复市场信心的关键考验。今年全球资金已抛售价值 33 亿美元的当地股票和 6.53 亿美元的债券。</p>
<p>周四，10 年期政府债券收益率上升了 5 个基点，达 6.75%。自年初以来，收益率已上升超过 60 个基点。</p>
<p>BNY 亚太市场策略师韦昆·钟表示：“在国内问题（如出口管制和 MSCI 审查）尚未进一步明朗之前，印尼资产仍面临下行压力。”</p>
<p>本周，关于印尼信用评级的担忧再次浮现，协调经济部长艾尔朗加·哈塔托表示，他与标准普尔全球评级的代表进行了 “年度会议”，但未说明会议何时举行。他表示，政府利用此次会议强调通过一系列战略措施维持经济增长的努力，具体内容在社交媒体上发布。</p>
<p>惠誉评级和穆迪评级已将对印尼的展望下调至负面，同时保持投资级评级。一些人担心标准普尔也可能采取类似行动。</p>
<p>为了增强信心，中央银行推出了一系列措施以支持当地货币并吸引资金流入，包括发行印尼盾计价的债券和收紧美元购买要求。上个月，央行以 50 个基点的加息令市场感到意外。下次政策决定将在 6 月 18 日公布。</p>
<p>然而，央行的密集干预也付出了代价，印尼的外汇储备在 4 月份进一步下降，降至近两年来的最低水平。惠誉警告称，储备覆盖率的急剧下降可能导致负面评级行动。</p>
<p>资本市场监管机构也推出了改革措施以增强信心，尽管许多人对本月晚些时候 MSCI 的决定以及几只大盘股从其指数中剔除感到担忧。彭博社报道。</p>

标普新兴亚太 ETF - SPDR

iShares MSCI新兴市场ETF

印尼 ETF - Market Vectors

<p>印尼市场在 6 月 4 日大幅下跌，印尼盾兑美元汇率突破 18,000，股市创下六年来的新低。这一暴跌源于普拉博沃总统领导下的政策不确定性、高油价以及对评级下调或 MSCI 重新分类的担忧。印尼央行已采取干预措施以稳定货币，而外国资金则已出售数十亿美元的资产。投资者在即将到来的 MSCI 决策和潜在的信用展望修订前保持谨慎</p>

<p>[JAKARTA] Indonesian markets tumbled on Thursday (Jun 4), with the rupiah breaching the key 18,000-per-US dollar level and stocks hitting a near six-year low, as mounting policy uncertainty and macro headwinds spooked investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>【雅加达】印尼市场在周四（6 月 4 日）大幅下跌，印尼盾突破每美元 18,000 的关键水平，股市跌至近六年来的最低点，政策不确定性和宏观经济逆风令投资者感到恐慌。</p>
</div><p>The rupiah fell as much as 0.6 per cent, taking its losses this year to about 8 per cent, while the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index slid 5 per cent to the lowest since December 2020 before paring losses. Both assets are Asia’s worst performers this year. Bonds also dropped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼盾下跌幅度达到 0.6%，今年累计损失约为 8%，而基准雅加达综合指数下跌 5%，跌至 2020 年 12 月以来的最低点，随后有所回升。这两项资产是今年亚洲表现最差的。债券也出现下跌。</p>
</div><p>The sell-off comes as investors grow more wary of Indonesia’s economic outlook and fiscal position under President Prabowo Subianto. Elevated oil prices have further strained government finances, while fears of greater state intervention in commodity exports, potential rating pressure and a pending MSCI reclassification decision have driven funds to the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次抛售发生在投资者对普拉博沃·苏比安托总统领导下印尼经济前景和财政状况愈发谨慎之际。高企的油价进一步加重了政府财政压力，而对商品出口可能加大国家干预、评级压力以及即将到来的 MSCI 重新分类决定的担忧，使资金退居一旁。</p>
</div><p>The sell-off is “mainly driven by rupiah weakness hitting record lows and pressure from a softer trade balance, especially with higher oil imports”, said Felix Darmawan, an analyst at BCA Sekuritas. “Investors are also getting more concerned about policy risks – including issues around the large-scale free meal programme and potential rating pressures – which is weighing on overall confidence.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BCA Sekuritas 的分析师费利克斯·达尔曼表示：“此次抛售主要是由于印尼盾疲软创下历史新低，以及贸易平衡趋软的压力，尤其是油品进口增加。” 他补充道：“投资者对政策风险的担忧也在加剧，包括大规模免费餐饮计划和潜在的评级压力等问题，这对整体信心造成了影响。”</p>
</div><p>Those concerns were on display Wednesday, when stocks fell to a five-year low and the rupiah hit another record low despite a lack of fresh catalysts. The slide underscored just how fragile sentiment has become, with investors quick to pull back even in the absence of any triggers. The abrupt firing this week of the head of Indonesia’s nutrition agency – central to Prabowo’s free meals programme – and a subsequent corruption probe have added to unease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些担忧在周三表现得尤为明显，当时股市跌至五年来的最低点，尽管缺乏新的催化剂，印尼盾再次创下历史新低。这一滑坡凸显了市场情绪的脆弱，投资者在缺乏任何触发因素的情况下迅速撤回资金。本周印尼营养局局长的突然解雇——该局是普拉博沃免费餐饮计划的核心——以及随后的腐败调查进一步加剧了不安。</p>
</div><p>The local stock exchange moved to calm investors’ nerves, with its acting chief saying on Thursday that the regulators “strongly expect” MSCI to maintain the nation’s emerging market status and that its fundamentals remain strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当地证券交易所采取措施安抚投资者的情绪，其代理首席执行官在周四表示，监管机构 “强烈期望” MSCI 维持该国的新兴市场地位，并且其基本面依然强劲。</p>
</div><p>One of the clearest ways these macro worries are playing out is through the local currency, which has hit successive lows this year, leading to repeated intervention efforts from the central bank. BNP Paribas SA, MUFG Bank and Mega Capital Sekuritas expect Bank Indonesia may raise interest rates as soon as this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些宏观担忧最明显的表现之一是当地货币的表现，今年以来印尼盾屡创新低，导致中央银行多次进行干预。BNP Paribas SA、MUFG 银行和 Mega Capital Sekuritas 预计印尼央行可能在本月加息。</p>
</div><p>On Thursday, Bank Indonesia confirmed it had stepped into currency markets, with Senior Deputy governor Destry Damayanti saying in a text message that the central bank would “increase the intensity of its interventions” to ensure orderly market functioning and maintain rupiah stability in line with fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，印尼央行确认已介入外汇市场，副行长德斯特里·达玛扬蒂在一条短信中表示，央行将 “加大干预力度”，以确保市场正常运作，并保持印尼盾的稳定，符合基本面。</p>
</div><p>A break well beyond 18,000 could accelerate foreign outflows from local stocks and bonds, which has made the level a key test for policymakers seeking to restore confidence in an economy facing mounting headwinds. Global funds have already offloaded US$3.3 billion worth of local stocks this year and another US$653 million worth of bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果印尼盾突破 18,000 的水平，可能会加速外资从当地股票和债券的流出，这一水平已成为政策制定者恢复市场信心的关键考验。今年全球资金已抛售价值 33 亿美元的当地股票和 6.53 亿美元的债券。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year government bond yield edged higher five basis points to 6.75 per cent on Thursday. Since the start of the year, it’s risen more than 60 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，10 年期政府债券收益率上升了 5 个基点，达 6.75%。自年初以来，收益率已上升超过 60 个基点。</p>
</div><p>“Until there is further clarity on domestic concerns, such as on export control and MSCI review, the pressure remains on the downside for Indonesia assets,” said Wee Khoon Chong, Asia-Pacific market strategist at BNY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNY 亚太市场策略师韦昆·钟表示：“在国内问题（如出口管制和 MSCI 审查）尚未进一步明朗之前，印尼资产仍面临下行压力。”</p>
</div><p>Concerns about Indonesia’s credit rating resurfaced this week after Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said he met representatives from S&amp;P Global Ratings in an “annual meeting,” without specifying when it took place. He said the government used the meeting to highlight efforts to sustain economic growth through a range of strategic measures, according to a social media post.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，关于印尼信用评级的担忧再次浮现，协调经济部长艾尔朗加·哈塔托表示，他与标准普尔全球评级的代表进行了 “年度会议”，但未说明会议何时举行。他表示，政府利用此次会议强调通过一系列战略措施维持经济增长的努力，具体内容在社交媒体上发布。</p>
</div><p>Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings have already revised their outlooks on Indonesia to negative while keeping ratings at investment grade. Some are wary that S&amp;P may also follow suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉评级和穆迪评级已将对印尼的展望下调至负面，同时保持投资级评级。一些人担心标准普尔也可能采取类似行动。</p>
</div><p>To boost confidence, the central bank has rolled out a series of measures to support the local currency and attract inflows, including issuance of rupiah-denominated bills and tightening requirements for US dollar purchases. Last month, it surprised markets with a 50-basis-point rate hike. Its next policy decision is due Jun 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了增强信心，中央银行推出了一系列措施以支持当地货币并吸引资金流入，包括发行印尼盾计价的债券和收紧美元购买要求。上个月，央行以 50 个基点的加息令市场感到意外。下次政策决定将在 6 月 18 日公布。</p>
</div><p>The central bank’s intensive interventions have come at a cost, though, with the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves falling further in April to the lowest in nearly two years. Fitch has warned that a sharp decline in the reserves coverage might lead to a negative rating action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，央行的密集干预也付出了代价，印尼的外汇储备在 4 月份进一步下降，降至近两年来的最低水平。惠誉警告称，储备覆盖率的急剧下降可能导致负面评级行动。</p>
</div><p>Capital market regulators have also rolled out reform measures to boost confidence, though many remain wary about the MSCI’s decision later this month and the removal of several big stocks from its indexes. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本市场监管机构也推出了改革措施以增强信心，尽管许多人对本月晚些时候 MSCI 的决定以及几只大盘股从其指数中剔除感到担忧。彭博社报道。</p>
</div>

随着普拉博沃政策风险的增加，印尼市场的动荡进一步加剧