<p>美国股市在过去一年表现良好，主要得益于对人工智能交易的热情。<strong>标普 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC +0.79%) 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC +1.52%) 自 2025 年 6 月以来分别上涨了 20% 和 27%。但投资者最近从美联储那里得到了坏消息。</p>
<p>美联储官员现在预计 2026 年至少会有一次加息。这将标志着自 1999 年以来第五轮加息周期的开始，而过去四轮周期通常与熊市相吻合。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY4NzgvbWFya2V0LXJlZC02LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3840" height="2334" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY4NzgvbWFya2V0LXJlZC02LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2026 年加息的可能性大幅增加</h2>
<p>在 12 月，美联储将基准利率的目标区间下调至 3.5% 至 3.75%，这代表着四分之一点的降幅。当时，市场预计 2026 年至少会有两次四分之一点的降息，根据 <strong>CME Group</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具。但由于最近通胀加速，投资者的预期发生了变化。</p>
<p>“美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）最自然的路径是推迟进一步降息，直到关税、高油价和中东战争的其他影响，以及人工智能需求的影响减弱，”<strong>高盛</strong> 的策略师在 6 月初写道。</p>
<p>FOMC 最新的经济预测强化了这一观点。6 月会议后发布的点阵图显示，50% 的美联储官员现在认为 2026 年至少需要一次四分之一点的加息。这一比例从 3 月的零上升。此外，大约三分之一的美联储官员预计今年至少会有两次四分之一点的加息。</p>
<h2>加息周期通常与股市修正相吻合</h2>
<p>沃伦·巴菲特认为，利率，尤其是国债利率，是决定股市估值的最重要变量。低利率通常使股票更具吸引力，而高利率则往往使股票吸引力下降。利率对股票有直接和间接的影响。</p>
<ul>
<li>直接影响涉及估值倍数的压缩。从理论上讲，一只股票的价值是其未来收益的现值总和。较高的利率降低了未来收益的现值，这压缩了估值，因为当相对安全的债券提供合理的回报时，投资者不愿意为股票支付太多。</li>
<li>间接影响涉及更高的借贷成本。当利率上升时，商业投资和消费者支出往往会放缓，因为融资项目和购买的成本更高。反过来，企业利润往往增长缓慢，这可能对股票施加下行压力，因为股票的估值通常基于收益。</li>
</ul>
<p>如果美联储今年加息，这将代表新一轮紧缩周期的首次加息（即利率上升的时期）。自 1999 年以来，美联储已经进行了四次这样的转变，而主要股指通常在接下来的三个月内某个时刻跌入修正区间。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>美联储转向加息</th>
<th>标普 500 最大跌幅</th>
<th>纳斯达克综合指数最大跌幅</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1999 年 6 月</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2004 年 6 月</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>(14%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015 年 12 月</td>
<td>(10%)</td>
<td>(15%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 年 3 月</td>
<td>(17%)</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>平均</strong></td>
<td><strong>(10%)</strong></td>
<td><strong>(15%)</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：美联储，YCharts。上面的图表显示了在美联储首次加息后的三个月内，标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数的最大回撤。</p>
<p>如图所示，在美联储首次加息后的三个月内，标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数平均分别下降了 10% 和 15%。在某个情况下，纳斯达克实际上下降超过 20%，意味着该指数进入了熊市。</p>
<p>当然，过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，利率的增加也并非板上钉钉。事实上，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的经济学家认为，随着通胀比预期更快降温，美联储将在 2026 年剩余的几个月内保持利率稳定。</p>
<p>尽管如此，投资者应该为波动做好准备。随着通胀持续高企，加息的可能性会增加，而加息可能会轻易将股市推入修正，特别是在估值已经被拉伸的情况下。标普 500 目前的交易倍数为 20.1 倍前瞻性收益，高于 10 年平均的 19 倍。</p>

纳斯达克综合指数

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数 ETF - Fidelity

<p>美联储现在预计在 2026 年至少会加息一次，转变了之前对降息的预期。历史上，这种紧缩周期通常与股市修正相吻合，标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数在首次加息后的三个月内平均分别下跌 10% 和 15%。虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，但高企的通胀和高估的估值表明，投资者应为潜在的波动做好准备</p>

<p>The U.S. stock market has performed well in the past year, in large part because of enthusiasm surrounding the artificial intelligence trade. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC +0.79%) and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC +1.52%) are up 20% and 27%, respectively, since June 2025. But investors recently got some bad news from the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市在过去一年表现良好，主要得益于对人工智能交易的热情。<strong>标普 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC +0.79%) 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC +1.52%) 自 2025 年 6 月以来分别上涨了 20% 和 27%。但投资者最近从美联储那里得到了坏消息。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials now anticipate at least one interest rate increase in 2026. That would mark the beginning of the fifth rate-increase cycle since 1999, and the last four cycles generally coincided with bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员现在预计 2026 年至少会有一次加息。这将标志着自 1999 年以来第五轮加息周期的开始，而过去四轮周期通常与熊市相吻合。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY4NzgvbWFya2V0LXJlZC02LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F876878%2Fmarket-red-6.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The odds of interest-rate increases in 2026 have increased substantially</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年加息的可能性大幅增加</h2>
</div><p>In December, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range on its benchmark interest rate to 3.5% to 3.75%, representing a quarter-point reduction. At the time, the market anticipated at least two more quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, according to <strong>CME Group</strong>'s FedWatch tool. But investors' expectations have changed because of the recent acceleration in inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月，美联储将基准利率的目标区间下调至 3.5% 至 3.75%，这代表着四分之一点的降幅。当时，市场预计 2026 年至少会有两次四分之一点的降息，根据 <strong>CME Group</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具。但由于最近通胀加速，投资者的预期发生了变化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The most natural path for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is to delay further cuts until the effects of tariffs, higher oil prices and other effects of the war in the Middle East, and the effects of artificial intelligence demand have faded,&#34; <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> strategists wrote in early June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）最自然的路径是推迟进一步降息，直到关税、高油价和中东战争的其他影响，以及人工智能需求的影响减弱，”<strong>高盛</strong> 的策略师在 6 月初写道。</p>
</div><p>The FOMC's latest economic projections reinforce that idea. The dot plot published after the June meeting indicates that 50% of Fed officials now believe at least one quarter-point rate increase will be necessary in 2026. That's up from zero in March. Moreover, about one-third of Fed officials expect at least two quarter-point rate increases this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FOMC 最新的经济预测强化了这一观点。6 月会议后发布的点阵图显示，50% 的美联储官员现在认为 2026 年至少需要一次四分之一点的加息。这一比例从 3 月的零上升。此外，大约三分之一的美联储官员预计今年至少会有两次四分之一点的加息。</p>
</div><h2>Rate-increase cycles have frequently coincided with stock market corrections</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加息周期通常与股市修正相吻合</h2>
</div><p>Warren Buffett believes interest rates, especially those on Treasury bonds, are the single most influential variable in determining stock market valuations over time. Low interest rates generally make stocks more attractive, while high interest rates tend to make stocks less attractive. Interest rates have a direct and indirect impact on equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特认为，利率，尤其是国债利率，是决定股市估值的最重要变量。低利率通常使股票更具吸引力，而高利率则往往使股票吸引力下降。利率对股票有直接和间接的影响。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The direct impact involves the compression of valuation multiples. In theory, a stock is worth the sum of its future earnings discounted to present value. Higher interest rates reduce the present value of future earnings, which compresses valuations because investors aren't willing to pay as much for stocks when relatively safe bonds offer reasonably good returns.</li>
<li>The indirect impact involves higher borrowing costs. Business investments and consumer spending tend to slow when interest rates rise because it's more expensive to finance projects and purchases. In turn, corporate profits tend to grow more slowly, which can put downward pressure on stocks because equities are often valued based on earnings.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>直接影响涉及估值倍数的压缩。从理论上讲，一只股票的价值是其未来收益的现值总和。较高的利率降低了未来收益的现值，这压缩了估值，因为当相对安全的债券提供合理的回报时，投资者不愿意为股票支付太多。</li>
<li>间接影响涉及更高的借贷成本。当利率上升时，商业投资和消费者支出往往会放缓，因为融资项目和购买的成本更高。反过来，企业利润往往增长缓慢，这可能对股票施加下行压力，因为股票的估值通常基于收益。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>If the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates this year, it would represent the first increase in a new tightening cycle (i.e., a period where rates are rising). The Fed has made that pivot four other times since 1999, and the major stock market indexes usually fell into correction territory at some point in the next three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美联储今年加息，这将代表新一轮紧缩周期的首次加息（即利率上升的时期）。自 1999 年以来，美联储已经进行了四次这样的转变，而主要股指通常在接下来的三个月内某个时刻跌入修正区间。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Fed Pivots to Rate Increases</th>
<th>Max Drop in S&amp;P 500</th>
<th>Max Drop in Nasdaq Composite</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>June 1999</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>June 2004</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>(14%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>December 2015</td>
<td>(10%)</td>
<td>(15%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>March 2022</td>
<td>(17%)</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td><strong>(10%)</strong></td>
<td><strong>(15%)</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>美联储转向加息</th>
<th>标普 500 最大跌幅</th>
<th>纳斯达克综合指数最大跌幅</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1999 年 6 月</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2004 年 6 月</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>(14%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015 年 12 月</td>
<td>(10%)</td>
<td>(15%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 年 3 月</td>
<td>(17%)</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>平均</strong></td>
<td><strong>(10%)</strong></td>
<td><strong>(15%)</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data sources: Federal Reserve, YCharts. The chart above shows the maximum drawdown in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite during the three-month period following the Fed's first interest-rate increase in a tightening cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：美联储，YCharts。上面的图表显示了在美联储首次加息后的三个月内，标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数的最大回撤。</p>
</div><p>As shown, following the Fed's first rate increase in a tightening cycle, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have declined by an average of 10% and 15%, respectively, at some point during the next three months. In one instance, the Nasdaq actually fell more than 20%, meaning the index entered a bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如图所示，在美联储首次加息后的三个月内，标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数平均分别下降了 10% 和 15%。在某个情况下，纳斯达克实际上下降超过 20%，意味着该指数进入了熊市。</p>
</div><p>Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, nor are interest-rate increases written in stone. In fact, <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> economists believe the Fed will hold interest rates steady through the remaining months of 2026 as inflation cools more quickly than anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，利率的增加也并非板上钉钉。事实上，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的经济学家认为，随着通胀比预期更快降温，美联储将在 2026 年剩余的几个月内保持利率稳定。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, investors should be prepared for volatility. Higher interest rates become more likely the longer inflation remains elevated, and rate increases could easily drive the stock market into a correction, particularly when valuations are already stretched. The S&amp;P 500 currently trades at 20.1 times forward earnings, a premium to the 10-year average of 19.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，投资者应该为波动做好准备。随着通胀持续高企，加息的可能性会增加，而加息可能会轻易将股市推入修正，特别是在估值已经被拉伸的情况下。标普 500 目前的交易倍数为 20.1 倍前瞻性收益，高于 10 年平均的 19 倍。</p>
</div>

Stock Market Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve. History Says a Big Drop Could Follow.

- 美国股市因人工智能热潮表现良好，标普 500 和纳斯达克分别上涨 20% 和 27%。  
- 美联储预期 2026 年将至少加息一次，历史上加息周期常伴随熊市。  
- 高利率将压缩估值，且借贷成本上升可能减缓企业和消费支出。

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股市投资者刚刚从美联储收到坏消息。历史显示，可能会出现大幅下跌