<p>标准普尔 500 指数在周二下跌，因为投资者从与人工智能相关的股票中撤出，且中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势再次升级。Polymarket 的交易者现在普遍押注该基准指数将在周三低开。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数下跌 0.45%，收于 7,503.85。7 月 8 日的 Polymarket 合约暗示该指数在周三低开的概率仅为 12%，反映出情绪急剧恶化，交易者越来越倾向于再次低开。该概率在早些时候超过 50% 后大幅下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/08051227/Screenshot-2026-07-08-at-14.37.23-1024x613.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/08051227/Screenshot-2026-07-08-at-14.37.23-1024x613.png"/></p>
<h2>为什么这个数字很重要</h2>
<p>市场在进入周三的交易时段时面临两个主要风险：中东地区重新出现的地缘政治紧张局势和对美联储政策路径的不确定性。</p>
<p>投资者将仔细审查美联储 6 月会议的纪要，以获取更多关于主席 <strong>凯文·沃什</strong> 在官员们维持利率不变但暗示如果通胀持续可能需要进一步加息的首次政策会议的细节。</p>
<p>与此同时，油价在美国对伊朗发起新一轮打击后飙升，此前在霍尔木兹海峡发生了对商业船只的攻击。</p>
<h2>熊市前景</h2>
<p>与人工智能相关的股票在另一轮抛售半导体股票后仍然承压。<strong>VanEck 半导体 ETF</strong> 在周二下跌超过 3%。</p>
<p>地缘政治风险也加剧。油价在总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 周三表示他认为美伊停火已结束后上涨超过 5%。</p>
<p>特朗普在周三与北约秘书长 <strong>马克·鲁特</strong> 在安卡拉的峰会上表示：“对我来说，我认为已经结束，” 他说。“我不想再和他们打交道……就我而言，已经结束。”</p>
<p>原油价格的上涨重新引发了对通胀可能保持高位的担忧，并可能使美联储保持鹰派立场。</p>
<p>周三早盘，标准普尔 500 期货下跌 0.97%。</p>
<p><strong>之前的押注结果</strong>：标准普尔 500 指数在周二以 7,516.63 开盘，低于周一的收盘价 7,537.43，这意味着 7 月 7 日的 Polymarket 押注结果为 “下跌”。该合约在结算前记录了约 107,040 美元的交易量。</p>
<p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock</em></p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>Chamath Palihapitiya 表示 Meta 在人工智能方面 “完全搞砸了”：为什么马克·扎克伯格错过了大型科技公司的下一个重大飞跃</strong></p>

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

<p>Polymarket 交易者普遍预计标普 500 指数将在周三低开，只有 12% 的概率会出现上涨开盘。这种看跌情绪是在周二下跌 0.45% 后产生的，主要受到中东地区地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美国对伊朗的打击后油价飙升以及即将发布的会议纪要对美联储政策的不确定性影响。与人工智能相关的股票也面临卖压</p>

<p>The S&amp;P 500 slipped on Tuesday as investors rotated out of artificial intelligence-linked stocks and geopolitical tensions flared again in the Middle East. Polymarket traders are now overwhelmingly betting the benchmark index will open lower on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数在周二下跌，因为投资者从与人工智能相关的股票中撤出，且中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势再次升级。Polymarket 的交易者现在普遍押注该基准指数将在周三低开。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.45% to close at 7,503.85. The July 8 Polymarket contract implied just a 12% probability that the index would open higher on Wednesday, reflecting a sharp deterioration in sentiment as traders increasingly positioned for another weak start. The chances dropped drastically after being over 50% earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数下跌 0.45%，收于 7,503.85。7 月 8 日的 Polymarket 合约暗示该指数在周三低开的概率仅为 12%，反映出情绪急剧恶化，交易者越来越倾向于再次低开。该概率在早些时候超过 50% 后大幅下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/08051227/Screenshot-2026-07-08-at-14.37.23-1024x613.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/08051227/Screenshot-2026-07-08-at-14.37.23-1024x613.png"/></p>
<h2>Why That Number Matters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这个数字很重要</h2>
</div><p>Markets are juggling two major risks heading into Wednesday’s session: renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场在进入周三的交易时段时面临两个主要风险：中东地区重新出现的地缘政治紧张局势和对美联储政策路径的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Investors will scrutinize minutes from the Fed’s June meeting for more detail on Chairman <strong>Kevin Warsh</strong>‘s first policy meeting after officials left interest rates unchanged but signaled additional rate hikes could be warranted if inflation remains persistent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者将仔细审查美联储 6 月会议的纪要，以获取更多关于主席 <strong>凯文·沃什</strong> 在官员们维持利率不变但暗示如果通胀持续可能需要进一步加息的首次政策会议的细节。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, oil prices surged after the U.S. launched fresh strikes on Iran following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，油价在美国对伊朗发起新一轮打击后飙升，此前在霍尔木兹海峡发生了对商业船只的攻击。</p>
</div><h2>The Bear Case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>熊市前景</h2>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence-linked stocks remain under pressure after another round of selling hit semiconductor shares. The <strong>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</strong> fell (NASDAQ: SMH) more than 3% on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与人工智能相关的股票在另一轮抛售半导体股票后仍然承压。<strong>VanEck 半导体 ETF</strong> 在周二下跌超过 3%。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitical risks have also intensified. Oil prices climbed more than <strong>5%</strong> after President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> said on Wednesday he considers the U.S.-Iran ceasefire to be over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>地缘政治风险也加剧。油价在总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 周三表示他认为美伊停火已结束后上涨超过 5%。</p>
</div><p>Speaking alongside NATO Secretary General <strong>Mark Rutte</strong> at the alliance’s summit in Ankara on Wednesday, Trump said: &#34;To me, I think it’s over,&#34; he said. &#34;I don’t want to deal with them anymore … as far as I’m concerned, it’s over.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在周三与北约秘书长 <strong>马克·鲁特</strong> 在安卡拉的峰会上表示：“对我来说，我认为已经结束，” 他说。“我不想再和他们打交道……就我而言，已经结束。”</p>
</div><p>The jump in crude prices has renewed concerns that inflation could remain elevated and keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格的上涨重新引发了对通胀可能保持高位的担忧，并可能使美联储保持鹰派立场。</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.97% early Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三早盘，标准普尔 500 期货下跌 0.97%。</p>
</div><p><strong>How The Previous Bet Played Out</strong>: The S&amp;P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,516.63, below Monday’s close of 7,537.43, meaning the July 7 Polymarket bet resolved “Down.” The contract recorded approximately $107,040 in traded volume before settling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>之前的押注结果</strong>：标准普尔 500 指数在周二以 7,516.63 开盘，低于周一的收盘价 7,537.43，这意味着 7 月 7 日的 Polymarket 押注结果为 “下跌”。该合约在结算前记录了约 107,040 美元的交易量。</p>
</div><p><em>Image via Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Chamath Palihapitiya Says Meta 'Completely Fumbled It' on AI: Why Mark Zuckerberg Missed Big Tech's Next Major Leap</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>Chamath Palihapitiya 表示 Meta 在人工智能方面 “完全搞砸了”：为什么马克·扎克伯格错过了大型科技公司的下一个重大飞跃</strong></p>
</div>

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

- 标普 500 指数周二下跌 0.45%，收于 7,503.85 点。  
- 投资者对地缘政治紧张局势和美联储政策的预测感到不安。  
- 油价上涨超过 5%，增加了通胀持续的担忧。

股市：标普 500 指数今天开盘是上涨还是下跌？