<p>每个人都想在下跌时买入，直到下跌真的到来。以 Rivian 为例。</p>
<p>在周末，我写了一篇文章，重点介绍了新的 Rivian R2——一款中型电动运动型多用途汽车（ESUV……我刚才是不是自己造了个词？），我相信它将颠覆美国汽车市场的甜蜜点。也许你读过这篇文章，或者你看过我讨论这款车、公司和 “霍莉指数” 的几段视频——我妻子订了一辆，她的同事也订了一辆，甚至我母亲也在考虑订购一辆。</p>
<p>你可能在我的某个视频中听到我说过，或者在附带的文章中读到过，我提到公司肯定需要筹集一些资金，因为到 2029 财年末，约 90 亿美元的负现金流超过了公司在 2026 年第一季度末手头的 48 亿美元现金。</p>
<p>我甚至说过，我认为公司应该进行一次增发，而不是出售更多债务。</p>
<p>这正是公司在周二宣布他们打算做的——出售约 7500 万股以筹集资金。股东显然感到惊讶并表示不同意，因为在这一消息公布后，股价下跌了每股 3.65 美元，尽管在 8 个交易日内仍上涨了近 15%。</p>
<p>股价几乎完全回到了 150 日移动平均线，这一指标由我的同事、CNBC 撰稿人 Carter Braxton Worth 推广，他也是 WRTH——Worth Charting Options Income ETF 的投资组合经理。</p>
<p>150 日移动平均线恰好非常接近我推荐出售的看跌期权的行权价——8 月的 16 美元期权——今天以每份合约 1.45 美元（行权价的 9%）收盘，仍然看起来是一个有趣的中性看涨策略。</p>
<p>在这里提醒一下。当交易者出售看跌期权时，他们愿意以该看跌期权的行权价购买基础股票，以换取收取的权利金。你可以把出售看跌期权看作是一个低于市场的限价单，而你会因此获得报酬，因此交易者通常使用这一策略来建立股票头寸。我以 0.85 美元出售了 8 月 16 日的期权，这意味着到期时我的盈亏平衡点是 15.15 美元，尽管在抛售后，今天早上的股价仍低于这个水平。</p>
<p>当然，Rivian 必须筹集资金——制造汽车是一个资本密集型的业务，Rivian 需要大幅提升产能，以准备我认为将会对其中型 R2 ESUV 产生的高需求。股权融资也是正确的方式——它提供的灵活性超过债务。如果说有什么，我会认为超过 7500 万股，只有 6% 的流通股，可能更合适。</p>
<p>这里有个有趣的地方：额外的 7500 万股将使现有股东的持股稀释仅 6%，而这种稀释是针对一家在增发后，应该在资产负债表上还有超过 10 亿美元现金的公司——这相当于一个季度所需现金的存款。</p>
<p>那么，为什么股价会下跌这么多？</p>
<p>公司在增发后将有足够的现金，能够舒适地度过 2027 年初，到那时投资者将能够评估市场对 R2 的需求。尽管如此，隐含波动率，也就是期权的 “价格” 和投资者不确定性的衡量标准，回顾过去一年上升到了第 97 个百分位。</p>
<p>对我来说，唯一令人惊讶的是投资者对这次增发感到惊讶。这是最明显的步骤。为什么投资者会因为 6% 的稀释而将股价下调 16%，而这实际上改善了公司的短期现金状况？他们似乎在定价两次后续增发，规模相当，但并没有提升公司的估值，尽管更强的现金状况提供了更长的跑道。</p>
<p>这让我想起了 Carter Worth 的 WRTH 期权收益基金。我联系了他，询问他对 Rivian 的看法——他对这里的图表有什么看法？他认为它会保持在 150 日移动平均线吗？不幸的是，在这篇文章印刷之前我没有收到他的回复，但也许我不需要。他的基金 WRTH 被称为 “完全透明”——这意味着该基金每晚公布其持仓。基金整体有大约 100 个期权头寸，但其中一个是 Rivian 的看跌头寸。他的投资组合短期持有 1000 份 7 月 17 日到期的 17 美元行权价的看跌期权。</p>
<p>如果行动胜于言辞，我不需要他给我回电话来分享他的想法；他的交易已经揭示了这些想法，并且与我的看法一致。继续坚持。</p>
<p>选择 CNBC 作为你在谷歌上的首选来源，永远不会错过来自商业新闻最可信赖名称的任何时刻。</p>

RIVN

RVNL

<p>Rivian 股票在宣布通过约 7500 万股的二次发行筹集资金后下跌了 3.65 美元。交易员 Mike Khouw 依然看涨，认为稀释是可控的，并且是为即将推出的 R2 产品提供资金所必需的。他强调，发行后的现金状况增强了资产负债表，并提到他出售 8 月份 16 美元看跌期权的策略，盈亏平衡点为 15.15 美元，这与其他机构的头寸如 Carter Worth 的基金相一致</p>

<p>Everyone wants to buy the dip, until the dip arrives. Case in point: Rivian.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个人都想在下跌时买入，直到下跌真的到来。以 Rivian 为例。</p>
</div><p>Over the weekend, I wrote an article highlighting the new Rivian R2 — a mid-sized ESUV (electric sports utility vehicle…did I just make up that acronym?) that I believe is poised to upend the sweet spot of the U.S. auto market. Perhaps you read the article, or perhaps you saw one of a couple of videos where I discussed the car, the company and the &#34;Holly Index&#34; - my wife ordered one, one of her colleagues ordered one, even my mother is thinking about ordering one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周末，我写了一篇文章，重点介绍了新的 Rivian R2——一款中型电动运动型多用途汽车（ESUV……我刚才是不是自己造了个词？），我相信它将颠覆美国汽车市场的甜蜜点。也许你读过这篇文章，或者你看过我讨论这款车、公司和 “霍莉指数” 的几段视频——我妻子订了一辆，她的同事也订了一辆，甚至我母亲也在考虑订购一辆。</p>
</div><p>You may have heard me say in one of my videos or read in the accompanying article that I discussed the fact that the company would certainly need to raise some capital, as the approximately $9 billion in negative cash flow through FYE2029 exceeds the $4.8 billion in cash the company had on hand at the end of Q1 26.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能在我的某个视频中听到我说过，或者在附带的文章中读到过，我提到公司肯定需要筹集一些资金，因为到 2029 财年末，约 90 亿美元的负现金流超过了公司在 2026 年第一季度末手头的 48 亿美元现金。</p>
</div><p>I even went so far as to say I thought the company should do a secondary offering rather than sell additional debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我甚至说过，我认为公司应该进行一次增发，而不是出售更多债务。</p>
</div><p>Which is precisely what the company announced Tuesday that they intend to do — sell ~75 million shares to raise capital. Shareholders were apparently surprised and disagreed, as the stock sold off $3.65/share on the news, although it's still up nearly 15% in 8 trading sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是公司在周二宣布他们打算做的——出售约 7500 万股以筹集资金。股东显然感到惊讶并表示不同意，因为在这一消息公布后，股价下跌了每股 3.65 美元，尽管在 8 个交易日内仍上涨了近 15%。</p>
</div><p>The shares have returned almost exactly to the 150-day moving average, popularized by my colleague and fellow CNBC contributor, Carter Braxton Worth of Worth Charting, and portfolio manager of WRTH - the Worth Charting Options Income ETF.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价几乎完全回到了 150 日移动平均线，这一指标由我的同事、CNBC 撰稿人 Carter Braxton Worth 推广，他也是 WRTH——Worth Charting Options Income ETF 的投资组合经理。</p>
</div><p>The 150-day moving average is, not coincidentally, very close to the strike of the puts I recommended selling — the August $16s — which closed today at $1.45/contract (9% of the strike price) and still look like an interesting way to make a moderately bullish play here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>150 日移动平均线恰好非常接近我推荐出售的看跌期权的行权价——8 月的 16 美元期权——今天以每份合约 1.45 美元（行权价的 9%）收盘，仍然看起来是一个有趣的中性看涨策略。</p>
</div><p>Reminder here. When traders sell puts, they are willing to buy the underlying stock at that put's strike prices in exchange for the collected premium. You can think of put selling as a below market limit order for which you get paid, and because of that, traders often use the strategy to initiate a position in a stock. I sold the august 16 for $0.85, which means my breakeven on expiration is $15.15, sill below where the stock is trading this morning despite the sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里提醒一下。当交易者出售看跌期权时，他们愿意以该看跌期权的行权价购买基础股票，以换取收取的权利金。你可以把出售看跌期权看作是一个低于市场的限价单，而你会因此获得报酬，因此交易者通常使用这一策略来建立股票头寸。我以 0.85 美元出售了 8 月 16 日的期权，这意味着到期时我的盈亏平衡点是 15.15 美元，尽管在抛售后，今天早上的股价仍低于这个水平。</p>
</div><p>Of <em>course</em>, Rivian has to raise capital — manufacturing cars is a capital-intensive business, and Rivian needs to ramp its capacity materially to prepare for what I believe will be high demand for its mid-market R2 ESUV. Equity is the right way to do it as well — it provides more flexibility than debt will. If anything, I would have thought more than 75 million shares, just 6% of the float, might have been appropriate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，Rivian 必须筹集资金——制造汽车是一个资本密集型的业务，Rivian 需要大幅提升产能，以准备我认为将会对其中型 R2 ESUV 产生的高需求。股权融资也是正确的方式——它提供的灵活性超过债务。如果说有什么，我会认为超过 7500 万股，只有 6% 的流通股，可能更合适。</p>
</div><p>Here's the curious bit: an additional 75 million shares would dilute an existing shareholder's ownership by only 6%, and that dilution would be for a company that, net of the offering, should have another $1 billion+ in cash on the balance sheet - a quarter's worth of needed cash in the bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里有个有趣的地方：额外的 7500 万股将使现有股东的持股稀释仅 6%，而这种稀释是针对一家在增发后，应该在资产负债表上还有超过 10 亿美元现金的公司——这相当于一个季度所需现金的存款。</p>
</div><p>So why were the shares down so much?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么股价会下跌这么多？</p>
</div><p>The company will have enough cash post-offering to comfortably get into early 2027, by which time investors will be able to access the market's appetite for the R2. Despite this, implied volatility, aka the &#34;price&#34; of options and a measure of investor uncertainty, rose to the 97th percentile looking back on the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司在增发后将有足够的现金，能够舒适地度过 2027 年初，到那时投资者将能够评估市场对 R2 的需求。尽管如此，隐含波动率，也就是期权的 “价格” 和投资者不确定性的衡量标准，回顾过去一年上升到了第 97 个百分位。</p>
</div><p>The only thing surprising about the offering to me was that <em>investors</em> were surprised by it. It was the most obvious step imaginable. Why are investors hitting the stock 16% for a 6% dilution that improves the company's near-term cash position? They appear to be pricing in two more follow-on offerings of comparable size without boosting the company's valuation, despite the benefit of a longer runway that a stronger cash position provides.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，唯一令人惊讶的是投资者对这次增发感到惊讶。这是最明显的步骤。为什么投资者会因为 6% 的稀释而将股价下调 16%，而这实际上改善了公司的短期现金状况？他们似乎在定价两次后续增发，规模相当，但并没有提升公司的估值，尽管更强的现金状况提供了更长的跑道。</p>
</div><p>Which brings me back to Carter Worth's WRTH option income fund. I reached out to him for comment about Rivian - what does he think about the chart here? Does he believe it will hold the 150dma? Unfortunately, I did not hear back before this article went to print, but maybe I don't need to. His fund, WRTH, is what is called &#34;fully transparent&#34; - meaning the fund publishes its holdings nightly. There are about 100 option positions in the fund overall, but one of them is a put position in Rivian. His portfolio is short 1,000 July 17th expiration $17 strike puts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我想起了 Carter Worth 的 WRTH 期权收益基金。我联系了他，询问他对 Rivian 的看法——他对这里的图表有什么看法？他认为它会保持在 150 日移动平均线吗？不幸的是，在这篇文章印刷之前我没有收到他的回复，但也许我不需要。他的基金 WRTH 被称为 “完全透明”——这意味着该基金每晚公布其持仓。基金整体有大约 100 个期权头寸，但其中一个是 Rivian 的看跌头寸。他的投资组合短期持有 1000 份 7 月 17 日到期的 17 美元行权价的看跌期权。</p>
</div><p>If actions speak louder than words, I don't need him to call me back to share his thoughts; his trade reveals them, and they're aligned with mine. Stay the course.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果行动胜于言辞，我不需要他给我回电话来分享他的想法；他的交易已经揭示了这些想法，并且与我的看法一致。继续坚持。</p>
</div><p>Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>选择 CNBC 作为你在谷歌上的首选来源，永远不会错过来自商业新闻最可信赖名称的任何时刻。</p>
</div>

Rivian 的困境并未动摇某位交易员的决心